Analysis: "Migrant crisis puts pressure on Swedish politicians"

The Parliamentary Migration Committee is tasked with presenting proposals for a new permanent asylum law for Sweden after the summer. All parliamentary parties participate in the committee's work, but the parties are far from each other.

SD leader Jimmie Åkesson, who sits on the committee, however, resigned from Wednesday's meeting to instead make a lightning visit to the border region between Greece and Turkey. There, before photographers, he distributed leaflets with the message that Sweden is full. Of course, this is about trying to take party political points on the migrant crisis in Greece and, in this situation, again raise the SD's old parade issue, immigration policy.

The situation in the Swedish debate today is, however, quite different from 2015. Prime Minister Stefan Löfven's message has so far been that the most important thing is to keep the EU's external border, ie the Greek border. The same Stefan Löfven announced in 2015 that his Europe did not build any walls.

Moderate leader Ulf Kristersson has dressed hunting clothes proclaimed on social media that the border should be closed. Leading representatives of the Center Party, Liberals and Christian Democrats have kept a fairly low profile, while the sharpest critics of what is now not unexpectedly are the Left Party and the Environmental Party.

Sweden's line in the EU is thus to support Greece to maintain the external border. Few politicians want to return to the refugee crisis in 2015 when more than 160,000 asylum seekers came to Sweden.

The temporary asylum law that has been in effect since then, with some changes, is stricter than before, but the volume of asylum seekers is probably still determined mostly by how many people can apply to Sweden's borders. Therefore, the protection of the external border plays a major role and therefore Swedish politicians today seem to be able to accept that tear gas is being shot at refugees and migrants.

Since then, the situation in Europe is also quite different today than 2015. Border protection has been strengthened, not least in the Balkans where fences and barbed wire are intended to keep refugees away. Most countries, like Sweden, have also introduced border controls.

At the same time, the situation at the Greek-Turkish border is a reminder to Swedish politicians that the migration issue will continue to characterize Swedish politics for the foreseeable future.

In recent years, the issue of migration has become increasingly important for Swedish voters and can also be seen as a main explanation for the success of the Swedish Democrats.

After the refugee crisis in 2015, Swedish asylum legislation was tightened, but this law is only temporary and right now the political parties are in negotiations for a new permanent legislation. Events at the border between Greece and Turkey put increased pressure on the parties, but it is difficult today to see how they can agree.

Admittedly, the Social Democrats, the Moderates and the Swedish Democrats agree that the Swedish asylum reception must be reduced, but the Social Democrats' government cooperation with the Environment Party stops such a settlement. At least in the current situation.

The Migration Committee will be able to agree broadly on temporary residence permits, but the question is whether there will be so much more. The January parties with the support of the Left Party want to introduce a new humanitarian basis for residence permits and have a majority for it. But, above all, that says the Moderates and the Swedish Democrats bluntly refuse.

The Christian Democrats, like the January parties, want family reunification for alternative protection needs, which M and SD also reject.

The list can be made longer over what the parties do not agree on. One such issue is the issue of a volume target for the asylum reception, as presented by the Moderates. This is also a question that the Social Democrats could put themselves behind, but where the Environment Party clearly says no.

A limited settlement on asylum policy in the Migration Committee is thus the most likely. But this means that the refugee policy seems to be an election issue also in the next parliamentary elections. It can benefit the Swedish Democrats, and disadvantage, for example, the Social Democrats. The magnitude of this issue in an electoral movement can then be ultimately determined by the EU and Greece's ability to handle the migrant and refugee flows from Turkey.