US President Donald Trump said that the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan will begin "immediately." He announced this on February 29 after signing a peace agreement with the Taliban.
"Today. It will start immediately, ”he said, answering a journalist’s question during a press conference in the White House.
At the same time, Trump made a reservation that Washington is ready to resume a military presence in Afghanistan if the terms of the agreement are violated. However, he expressed the hope that such a scenario would still not have to be implemented.
“I am truly convinced that the Taliban want to somehow show that we are not all busy with a waste of time. If something bad happens, we will be back. I made it clear that we will return, and it will be such a swift and powerful return that no one has ever seen. But it is unlikely to be needed, ”the head of the White House said.
According to him, Washington “made a significant contribution” to the elimination of the terrorist threat in the region and now it is time for other countries to continue this struggle.
“As you know, we have destroyed the ISIS caliphate ** in Iraq and Syria one hundred percent ... We have thousands of prisoners. We exterminated ISIS militants in the thousands, and in Afghanistan too. But now it’s time for someone else to do this work - and it will be the Taliban and, possibly, neighboring countries. Afghanistan is surrounded by many nations that can provide support. And we are eight thousand miles from there, ”Trump said.
The US president also announced his intention to soon meet in person with Taliban leaders.
“In a not so distant future, I will personally meet with the leaders of the Taliban. We hope that they will do what they promised - the destruction of terrorists, ”the head of state said.
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In addition, Trump congratulated Afghan President Ashraf Ghani on the conclusion of the deal.
A little later, during the annual conference of conservative circles of the US Republican Party held in the suburbs of Washington, the owner of the White House honored some Taliban members with flattering words, calling them "excellent" fighters.
"Endless war"
The US military operation, Enduring Freedom, began in Afghanistan on October 7, 2001, in response to the September 11 attacks. The main goals of Enduring Freedom were called the Taliban and the al-Qaida international terrorist group ***.
In 2009, President Barack Obama announced the sending of an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan. According to him, this measure was supposed to stabilize the situation in the country and allow in 2011 to begin the withdrawal of coalition forces from there. However, it was not possible to realize these intentions on schedule.
“The Americans did not expect the war to drag out. After all, in fact, they managed for some time to quickly neutralize both the Taliban and al-Qaeda. But they absolutely did not expect that the Taliban will not disappear anywhere, that they will regroup and continue the fight, ”said Vladimir Sotnikov, senior researcher at the IMEMO Center for International Security and the Department of Near and Middle East, Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
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Only in 2013, Washington withdrew half of its contingent from Afghanistan - 34 thousand troops. The following year, the International Security Assistance Force completed its mission in the country, after which a new mission was announced - Resolute Support. Its main goal was to assist the security forces of the official government.
According to Sotnikov, the Americans had to keep troops in Afghanistan for so long, because their withdrawal at that time would mean the imminent fall of the official government under the pressure of the Taliban.
“The Americans could not leave for 19 years, because their departure would mean that Kabul would soon be in the hands of the Taliban.” Everything would return to the situation that existed at the time of the US invasion of Afghanistan, ”the expert explained.
Political scientist Alexander Asafov believes that the current situation most resembled the trap into which Washington drove itself.
“Afghanistan has become a trap for Americans: a victorious war has failed. They fell into a situation where you can’t leave either, as this would be a reputational defeat, and remain destructive, because the war does not see an end, ”he said in an interview with RT.
After 19 years of US military presence in Afghanistan, the situation there remains tense. From this country regularly reports of the death of the US military. The last such incident occurred in February 2020, when it became known about the death of two US forces soldiers.
In total, since 2001, about 2,400 US troops have died in Afghanistan, more than 20,000 have been injured of varying severity. About a thousand more deaths occur in other countries participating in the coalition.
These data do not take into account the losses suffered by the security forces of official Kabul, which is Washington’s ally in the fight against the Taliban. According to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, since 2014 alone, government troops have lost at least 45 thousand soldiers killed.
Through the Afghan war, a total of more than 775 thousand American soldiers passed. This figure includes all military personnel who have been sent to Afghanistan at least once.
Washington’s spending on the Afghan campaign is no less impressive. Speaking about the cost of the military campaign, the American media say the amount is up to $ 2 trillion.
At the same time, experts doubt the effectiveness of these expenses, since the Taliban still control a significant part of the country.
To promise does not mean to leave
Stopping costly wars in the Middle East was one of Trump’s election demands, experts recall. It was possible to begin peace negotiations with the Taliban in the second year of his presidency - in October 2018. The place of their holding was chosen as the capital of Qatar - Doha.
The process of reaching a compromise was difficult: in September 2019, Trump even announced that the United States was refusing to negotiate. However, then they nevertheless resumed and as a result, on February 29, 2020, the parties signed a peace agreement.
The text of the document says that Washington will reduce the size of its contingent in Afghanistan to 8,600 people within 135 days. Proportional to this will reduce the number of troops and other coalition members. In addition, the allies pledge to withdraw all remaining troops in the next nine and a half months if the Taliban comply with their obligations.
Washington also intends by August to lift the sanctions on members of the Taliban and facilitate their removal from the UN sanctions list by May 2020.
The Taliban, in turn, gave a guarantee that the activities of al-Qaeda or any other terrorist groups would not be allowed on the territory they controlled.
According to Sotnikov, Washington will nevertheless fulfill its part of the deal.
“One of Trump’s campaign promises was the withdrawal of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. And I think that he will fulfill it, because he needs trump cards on the eve of the upcoming elections. Most of the US troops will leave the country, but a small contingent of advisers may remain, ”the analyst said.
Asafov adheres to a similar point of view.
“This compromise solution helps create the image of Trump the Peacemaker, who fulfills his campaign promises about the withdrawal of troops, so that, as he puts it,“ our guys stopped dying. ” This will form the basis of his election campaign, ”the analyst believes.
At the same time, experts note that the Taliban agreed to negotiate peace with their long-standing enemy not at all because they were on the verge of defeat.
“The forces of the Taliban are not exhausted. For them, the most important thing is to negotiate with the Americans so that there are no foreign troops in the country. Therefore, they are ready to negotiate. There is no other way, since neither side can inflict a military defeat on its adversary. This is a stalemate. In case of successful implementation of the agreement, the Taliban will be given free hands after the withdrawal of American troops. They will strive to establish control over the entire territory of Afghanistan, ”Sotnikov said.
Assessing the possibility of a complete US withdrawal from Afghanistan, experts agreed that such a scenario is still unlikely.
“This deal does not mean that the Americans have weakened their influence and completely left there. They will remain there not in the form of troops, but as employees of intelligence services, instructors, private military companies or guards of some important strategic commercial facilities. This is too important a zone for them to leave completely, ”Asafov concluded.
* "Taliban" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.
** “Islamic State” (ISIS, ISIS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.
*** Al-Qaeda - the organization was recognized as terrorist by a decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.