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by Tiziana Di Giovannandrea 29 February 2020 The Cgia di Mestre Studies Office raises the alarm about the negative effects of Coronavirus and points the finger at the bad economic consequences that may derive from it.

The risk is that if the Coronavirus emergency were to spread enormously in all the northern regions and lasted a few months, as some virology experts speculate, a good part of the national economy could stop. The specter of the recession is upon us.

From the study it emerges that in Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia Romagna, Piedmont and Liguria "half" of the national GDP and of the tax revenues that end up in the treasury are "generated"; over 9 million employees employed in private enterprises work there (equal to 53 percent of the national total). And from these territories 2/3 of Italian exports go abroad and about 53 percent of gross fixed investments are concentrated.

• Structural measures required
In addition to the urgent measures affecting the activities and taxpayers who fall within the Municipalities located in the so-called 'red zone', it is also necessary for the Executive to develop a structural measure that affects the whole economy.

For the Study Center, it is certainly necessary to refinance Cigo and Cigs , to give credit back to SMEs and that the PA pays its debts .

"The damage to the image caused to Italy is quite heavy. Many production sectors - reports the coordinator of the Studies Office Paolo Zabeo - are already exhausted, for this reason we ask the government to immediately approve a medium-long term intervention that provides for the refinancing of the social safety nets and the extension of the same to the sectors that do not have today, which strengthen the measures for access to credit for SMEs and the Public Administration pay all debts with their suppliers ".

• Amount of the effects of Coronavirus on the real economy
According to the CGIA it is very difficult to quantify the impact economically, also because much will depend on the temporal duration of this emergency phase. "However, it should be noted that in recent weeks the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco , hypothesized a 'loss' of a few decimals of GDP. If, for example, the wealth produced were to fall by 0.4 points, as well as some research institutes predict, the economic damage would amount to about 7 billion euros ". A figure, however, "purely indicative" which - underlines the CGIA - is not supported by any statistical findings ".

• It is necessary to relaunch public investments
In addition to this, the CGIA also asks to revive public investment. The secretary, Renato Mason affirms: “In recent days the European Commissioner for Economy, Paolo Gentiloni , has announced that Brussels, as it has already done in the past when we have faced other important emergencies such as the earthquake in Central Italy and the arrival in mass of migrants in the ports of the South, will recognize us a dose of flexibility that will allow us not to respect the commitments undertaken regarding the Deficit / GDP ratio. Resources that, in our opinion, must be spent to relaunch public investment, to modernize this country, in other words to breathe new life into an economy that otherwise risks falling into recession ".

The Cgia Studies Office then highlights how banks have cut loans by 33 billion over the past year and the PA owes 53 billion from suppliers.