ANALYSIS
At the microphone of Patrick Cohen on Saturday on Europe 1, Arnaud Fontanet, director of the epidemiology unit of the Pasteur Institute, returned to the evolution of the spread of the coronavirus and the progress of scientific research. "Unfortunately we arrive at this period that we feared where we see fires igniting in several places", explains the epidemiologist, who recalls that a week ago, no case was more recorded on French soil .
"It requires a very significant reactive effort, because we must contain and limit the progression of each of these outbreaks and the more they are, the more difficult it will be." Since the start of the epidemic in China, the virus has reached nearly 40 countries, infected more than 80,000 people and killed more than 2,900.
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Nevertheless, the scientist wants to be reassuring. For him, "the situation is under control". "We will succeed in gradually containing each of these outbreaks. But we will be challenged in the weeks to come, because of the very important epidemic outbreaks that are being created" in the world, explains Arnaud Fontanet, taking the example Italy and Iran, where the situation has worsened this week. These new outbreaks complicate the work of doctors to identify potential patients, continues the director of the epidemiology unit of the Institut Pasteur. "Asking whether a patient had been in China was very effective, but it is no longer valid today," he said.
"We learned a lot about this new coronavirus"
If Arnaud Fontanet recognizes a "part of unknown" in the current situation and in its evolution, he especially underlines the research capacity of the doctors around the world, recalling that the sequencing of the virus had been carried out in only four weeks. Member of the "Coronavirus 2019-nCoV" Task Force of the Pasteur Institute, the epidemiologist explains that the research is focused on a "serological" test, which aims to screen for antibodies to the virus.
"With this serological test, we will know the real extent of the epidemic and its spread," he said, saying that the test could be designed in the next two months. Its teams are also working on a treatment, which could be developed within six months, as well as a vaccine, within 18 to 24 months.
Less contagious than the seasonal flu?
Regarding the symptoms of the coronavirus, very similar to those of the flu, Arnaud Fontanet says that we are "on things we know". "The few nuances compared to a seasonal flu epidemic would be to say that it is a little less contagious," he said, adding that the mortality linked to the coronavirus remains higher.
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"We must distinguish the number of secondary cases per infected person in the absence of control measures," says Arnaud Fontanet. "This number is between two and three. It is the same for SARS, for seasonal flu and for coronavirus." "The big difference is that when you start control measures, with SARS, you could bring this number down to less than one, that is to say stop the epidemic," continues the doctor. of the Institut Pasteur. However, with the seasonal flu, "we know we can't do it," he says. "We can slow it down, but we can't stop it."
"But with this coronavirus, measures of hygiene and social distancing (such as confinement, note ), these measures can have a slightly stronger impact than with a flu and that's where it is important, c is the stake for the next few weeks ", concludes Arnaud Fontanet.