Turkey’s actions in Idlib destabilize the situation in Syria, return the situation with the armed conflict in the republic back to the phase of active hostilities and create the prerequisites for a new migration crisis, experts say.

We will remind, earlier, on February 27, the armed groups of the Khayyat Tahrir al-Sham * terrorist group * tried to conduct an offensive operation on a wide front on the positions of the Syrian government forces in Idlib. This is stated in a statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

During the shelling of militant units in the area of ​​the settlement of Behun by Syrian forces, Turkish soldiers who were “in the battle formations of terrorist formations” fell under fire, the Ministry of Defense reports. Although, “according to the coordinates given by the Turkish side to the Russian Center for the Reconciliation of the warring parties, there were no and should not be any units of the Turkish armed forces in the area of ​​Behun,” the Russian defense ministry said in a statement.

After receiving information about the injured Turkish troops, Russia took comprehensive measures for a complete ceasefire by Syrian forces. Also, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation indicated that aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the Behun area was not used.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, commenting on the Idlib incident, emphasized that the Syrian army has the right to respond to hostile actions by militants of terrorist organizations.

“In response to the constant violations of the ceasefire from within this Idlib zone, the Syrian army, of course, has every right to respond, suppress terrorists, and we cannot here forbid the Syrian army to comply with the requirements that are recorded in the UN Security Council resolution on the merciless, uncompromising fight against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, ”Lavrov said.

He added that the Turkish side is informing the Russian Central Military District on where the Turkish military is located in this Idlib de-escalation zone at any given time.

“These coordinates, of course, are transferred to the Syrian armed forces, so that, in response to terrorist attacks, they fully ensure the security of Turkish troops,” the minister said.

Lavrov stressed that "the coordinates that were transmitted yesterday did not contain a reference to the places where the Turkish military eventually died, who were in the ranks of terrorist groups."

According to political analyst Alexander Asafov, the escalation of the situation in Idlib is pulling the situation with the armed conflict in Syria back to the phase of active hostilities.

“If before this the path to peaceful life was obvious, then such steps return the situation to military operations. Erdogan realizes his political goals, but in Idlib itself, because of this, the situation has already gone too far, we see direct clashes. We can already talk about the beginning, if not war, then at least the active phase of the conflict between Damascus and Ankara, ”Asafov explained in a conversation with RT.

NATO Verbal Support

According to the Turkish news agency Anadolu, as a result of the incident in Behun killed at least 33 Turkish Armed Forces. Immediately after the incident, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu held telephone conversations with NATO President Jens Stoltenberg, Turkish journalists said, not focusing on the details of the conversation.

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On Friday, at the request of the Turkish side, an emergency meeting of the North Atlantic Council at the ambassadorial level was held in Brussels. Representatives of the alliance expressed their condolences on the death of the Turkish military in Idlib and stated that they were ready to continue to provide their support to Ankara.

NATO Secretary General thanked Ankara for providing information on the situation in Syrian Idlib, again called on Moscow and Damascus to de-escalate immediately, and assured Turkey that it is "a valuable NATO ally." However, as a result of the meeting, no new concrete measures of assistance to Turkey were announced.

“NATO is already providing significant support to Turkey using a wide range of measures. The Alliance will continue to support Turkey, including in the field of air defense, which helps protect Turkey’s airspace from missile attacks from Syria, ”Stoltenberg said.

Migration “pressure policy”

At the same time, information appeared in the Western media that Ankara decided not to restrain the flow of Syrian refugees to Europe. This was stated by Reuters, citing a source in the Turkish government.

It is reported that the decision was made at an emergency meeting led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

According to the agency, a senior government official who was present at the meeting told Reuters that, in anticipation of a new flow of refugees due to the aggravation of the situation in Idlib, Turkish police, coast guards and border guards were instructed not to deter Syrian migrants at land and sea border points.

A similar statement was made by the official representative of the ruling Turkish Justice and Development Party, Omer Celik.

“The migration policy of Turkey remains unchanged, but we can no longer restrain the flow of refugees from Syria,” Anadolu quoted him as saying.

“Erdogan, in his rather famous eccentric style, often engages in blackmail politics. And his actions to allow refugees to enter Europe are a direct signal to Europe that refugees will continue, as before, if Europe does not support Turkey in this confrontation. Erdogan hopes that if he is supported by other major actors, he will be able to insist on his own, ”said Alexander Asafov.

A similar point of view is shared by Ivan Konovalov, head of the RISI military policy and economy sector. According to him, control over the flow of refugees to Europe is a powerful lever of pressure on the leadership of the EU and NATO on the Syrian issue.

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“Erdogan is profitable because his relations with the EU are low, the once promised accession to the European Union no longer shines. Therefore, in this way, threatening Europe and using the situation to the advantage of itself fits into the logic of Ankara’s actions, ”the expert explained in a conversation with RT.

Erdogan will have to negotiate

In an interview with RT, Ivan Konovalov stressed that Turkey’s actions in Syrian Idlib will seriously destabilize the region. However, in his opinion, the situation works against Erdogan.

“He is in a zugzwang situation, when any move is negative for him, losing in advance, no matter what he does. He is confronted with the fact that yes, for some time you can still play the war, and then sooner or later you have to agree, ”the expert believes.

At the same time, Konovalov stressed that further escalation of the conflict is prevented only thanks to the balanced steps of Moscow.

“It should be noted that Russia adheres to all its agreements and leaves Turkey room for maneuver, but this cannot go on indefinitely. Now the situation is on the red line, ”said the military expert.

A similar point of view is shared by Alexander Asafov. According to him, the current situation will not add stability to either international relations or the security of Europe itself.

“But, taking into account the position of Moscow and other major regional actors, one can still count on a decrease in the degree of escalation in the near future,” the expert noted.

* “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (“Jabhat Fath al-Sham”, “Front al-Nusra”, “Jabhat al-Nusra”) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated December 29, 2014.