Last week, the anniversary of the Soviet Union's withdrawal from Afghanistan was celebrated, and some 31 years ago, the last Soviet soldier left the country across the Amu Darya River. But the Afghans know that this was the beginning of a new nightmare, the outbreak of civil war, and many Afghans who have not forgotten that war, fear that something similar will happen when NATO forces withdraw. But they realize, however, that the withdrawal will take place, if it were not now, it will be later. One of the fighters ’leaders, during the 1980’s, in the eastern Logar region, Muhammad Nasim, where he fought the Communist government and its supporters:“ Americans will one day have to leave, we Afghans do not like foreign invaders. ” "We are killing each other, for the sake of foreign powers and foreign ideologies, but the withdrawal will take place in a systematic and responsible manner," added Naseem, eating berries in Mandai, one of the largest open markets in Kabul. Naseem, who supports President Ashraf Ghani, said: "The Taliban movement must negotiate with the government as well, and not only with the Americans."

The biggest issues

And it is perhaps the biggest remaining issue, following the announcement of a seven-day truce between the United States and the Taliban forces in recent days. If the decrease in the frequency of violence is successful, then the first stage agreement is expected to be signed at the end of February. The agreement requires a 135-day timetable for the United States to withdraw from Afghanistan, the release of thousands of Afghan prisoners, and at the same time, the start of talks between the Afghans themselves, that is, between the various political parties.

During the Munich security conference, which ended last Sunday, the final stage of the agreement between the United States and the "Taliban" was confirmed by many parties, including the administration of President Donald Trump, and the US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, who developed the agreement with a delegation The "Taliban" after arduous efforts. Ashraf Ghani expressed his concern that the "Taliban" could exploit the peace process "as a Trojan horse strategy" with the aim of undermining his government, but he stressed the fact that the war can not end until after engaging in a peace process that tests the rebels.

Move away from the scene

During the month-long negotiations between Washington and the Taliban delegation, the Afghan government was completely off the scene. Although Khalilzad has stressed many times that negotiations between the Afghans themselves, and with the Ghani government in particular, are crucial to any agreement, critics believe that Washington was mainly trying to satisfy the "Taliban", which still raises questions about some legitimacy. She calls it "the puppet government" in Kabul.

"The Afghans are being killed on a daily basis, and their lives have become irrelevant," said Ursala, a political ethnologist and head of the Center for Assessment and Research in Afghanistan, an independent research organization based in Kabul. At the same time, these people at risk of being killed are not represented during all negotiations between the Taliban and the Americans. But this small group, which mainly wants to reach its goals through terrorism, does not represent the Afghan society, which consists of 30 million people.

Many Afghan observers believe that a seven-day ceasefire as an important test will not reveal the goodwill of both sides, but rather it must prove whether the Taliban have an organized structure and hierarchical authority on the ground. This became clear once before, during the Eid al-Adha holiday in 2018, when the Taliban militia stopped fighting and laid arms aside for three days across the country. During this period, many observers and analysts said that, unlike what the Taliban militias are always depicted, it appears that they have a strict hierarchical system throughout Afghanistan.

Indeed, signing a new agreement will not end 40 years of war, but it will enable a peace process that includes all the different political factions within Afghanistan, as well as a large number of Afghans present in the diaspora, and civil society there. But many observers fear that the agreement between the Americans and the "Taliban" could be violated by various parties. University professor and political analyst who studied the "Taliban" movement, Zakir Jalali said: "(The Taliban) want to sign this agreement, and it is not in its interest to violate it, but there are other players who are not happy with the agreement between the Americans and the Taliban, and quite clearly that one of them is the Afghan government." Itself. There are another major opponent of the agreement is the (ISIS) organization, ”Jalali said, adding that the parties are likely to work separately to sabotage the agreement.

It is known that there were attacks and accidents in the past, which were attributed to the "Taliban". Dutch journalist and writer Betty Dam, who focuses on her work in Afghanistan, said: “At the moment, there are certain groups that are not interested in peace, for several reasons, that can be known to the Afghan government, and within the (Taliban) with its stubborn rulers or leaders on the ground, and the real question is : If something happens ... are we ready to know the true story behind it? "I don't think so, and I think it is dangerous."

Imran Firoz is an independent Afghan journalist

A frequent complaint

The recurring complaint of ordinary Afghans remains that until now they have been excluded from any peace process. Idris Stanikazi, the political activist and leader of the "Afghan Youth Orientation" movement, said: "Basically, we, the Afghans and our official government, do not know anything about the peace process." He added, “All negotiations took place without our participation and in closed rooms, which is a difficult problem that we can talk about. Finally, I am sure that the (Taliban) terrorist group will come to Kabul, where it will consider itself victorious, and will act accordingly. ”

Like many other young men from urban areas, Idris believes that the "Taliban" will not accept the positive change and development that occurred during her 18-year absence. As for the reduction of violence, Idris appears to be not very optimistic about it. Idris said in an interview, “I think both sides (the American and the Taliban) are not trustworthy. And let's remember last time when Trump canceled everything in a tweet, after several months of negotiations. Who will guarantee that this will happen again? Also, who will be the judge if the American raids or Taliban attacks continue? ”

Many Afghan observers argue that a seven-day ceasefire as an important test will not reveal the goodwill of both sides, but rather it must prove whether the Taliban have an organized structure and hierarchical authority on the ground.

Ashraf Ghani expressed his concern that the "Taliban" could use the peace process as a "Trojan horse strategy", with the aim of undermining his government.