Some 58 million Iranians are called to elect a new parliament on Friday for a ballot in which the Conservatives leave favorites. It must be said that the economic crisis has fueled popular resentment against moderate President Hassan Rohani. Above all, the context of this election is particular. The new legislature will begin its work amid heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington. This contributed to the distrust of the population, mainly after the Iranian armed forces had “mistakenly” shot down a Ukrainian airliner almost a month and a half ago.
"If to vote is to legitimize, then it will be without my vote"
This rejection by the authorities in place could result in strong abstention. In Tehran, many residents have expressed their refusal to vote. For Amir Mohtasham, 38, unemployed for two years, "these elections are in vain". Better off, Mohammad, a 30-year-old carpet merchant, says he "voted for Rohani with a dream". "But we haven't accomplished anything [and] there are too many lies", he adds: "If to vote is to legitimize, then it will be without my vote". In addition, the disqualification of thousands of reformist and moderate candidates practically reduces the ballot to a clash between conservatives and ultra-conservatives and could therefore incite some not to vote.
Depending on the weight of the ultras in the future Assembly, the foreign policy of openness, pursued by Hassan Rohani since his election in 2013, could change. The ultraconservatives oppose any negotiation with the West and are impatient to get out of the international agreement on Iranian nuclear, the great achievement of the current president, concluded in 2015 in Vienna, but threatened with implosion since Donald Trump unilaterally denounced it in 2018.
In Hassan Rohani's mind, the agreement was to open an era of prosperity for Iran by lifting it out of its international isolation. Instead, the return of US sanctions in the wake of the US withdrawal from the agreement plunged Iran into a severe recession.
Extensive TV campaign to encourage voting
Aware that the government could take a new direction, several figures warned against a victory for the ultra-conservatives in the event of heavy abstention. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, called for massive participation to thwart the "vicious plots" of the United States and Israel against Iran. "Voting [...] is a religious duty," he said on Tuesday. Since Wednesday, the television broadcasts a multitude of calls to vote of political leaders or Ayatollahs. A short cartoon broadcast several times a day shows the ballots turning like torpedoes against a fleet of invaders, sent from the bottom. The abstention "will increase the possibility of military aggression," said Hesameddine Achena, a close adviser to the president, calling on the Iranians to vote even if they are not happy with the government.
Turnout in the last ten elections averaged 60.5%, according to the Interior Ministry. Guardian Council spokesman Abbas Ali Kadkhodaï said Wednesday that a stake of less than 50% would be "no problem for democracy". The polling stations opened at 08:00. They will close at 6:00 p.m., but polling times are often extended, particularly in Tehran.
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