EXCLUSIVE
Since the Liberation, voters in Bordeaux have only gone to the polls once during the various municipal elections. Jacques Chaban-Delmas first, Alain Juppé then, won it every time in the first round. In 2020, on March 15 and 22, the situation should change. In an exclusive BVA survey for Europe 1 and Orange * published on Thursday, no candidate exceeds 50% of voting intentions. The withdrawal of Alain Juppe, party to the Constitutional Council, as the rise of environmentalists and that of Philippe Poutou, have apparently redistributed the cards.
It is however unlikely to see the city rock. Riding on the still intact popularity of Alain Juppe - 82% of Bordeaux residents are satisfied with the one who was their mayor for 22 years (from 1995 to 2004 then from 2006 to 2019) - his successor Nicolas Florian, supported by Les Républicains, the MoDem and take action would come out on top in the first round, with 40% of the vote. What to calmly approach the second round.
Powerful environmentalists, Poutou surprise
However, competition is not far away. The environmentalist Pierre Hurmic, supported (in addition to EELV) by the PS, the PCF, the PRG and Génération.s, has 30% of voting intentions. A good score which can be explained by the rise of environmental themes in the national and local context. 37% of Bordeaux residents questioned indeed cited environmental protection as a priority, just behind traffic conditions and parking (40%). Safety, the number one priority for the French at national level, only comes to Bordeaux in third position (30%).
But the big surprise of this poll is the score that Philippe Poutou could get. This figure of the NPA, candidate in the last two presidential elections, was already present at the 2014 municipal elections in Bordeaux, where he had obtained 2.51% of the votes. But this time, the former worker at the Ford factory in Blanquefort is supported by La France insoumise. The effect is spectacular, since Philippe Poutou is credited with 12% of the voting intentions, therefore above the fateful bar of 10%, necessary to maintain himself in the second round. He could thus play the referees.
LREM off the hook
Philippe Poutou possibly in the second round, which could not be the case for the Republic on the move. Little helped by the Macron-compatible side of Alain Juppé, and therefore of his successor, Thomas Cazenave would only collect 11% of the votes at this stage. The town hall therefore seems unmanageable, but the candidate of the majority party in the Assembly could bring a precious help to Nicolas Florian in the second round.
At this stage, several hypotheses are therefore credible: a quadrangular, since four candidates seem able to maintain themselves in the second round; a triangular, if one of the four lists does not exceed 10% or decides to abandon the game to support a rival list; finally a duel, between the right and the left. But in each scenario, it is Nicolas Florian, who has the largest reserves of votes, who seems the most able to win.
* Survey conducted by phone between February 7 and 14, from a sample of 702 people registered on the electoral lists, from a representative sample of 1,033 inhabitants of Bordeaux aged 18 and over. The representativeness of the sample was ensured by the quota method applied to the following variables: sex, age and profession of the interview