Pension reform: the way of the cross from government to assembly

Text by: Julien Chavanne

The National Assembly examines from Monday the pension reform project. The debates promise to be lively. The opposition intends to be heard against the government's text. After two years of consultation, a great debate, a record strike, the Stations of the Cross for Emmanuel Macron and his ministers are not yet finished.

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The executive hoped to move on after the text was presented to the Council of Ministers last month. But that was without counting the mobilization of the opposition with France rebellious (LFI) in mind. Jean-Luc Mélenchon's team managed to torpedo the special committee created to prepare as much as possible for the text to land in the Hemicycle. The rebellious deputies drowned the debates with thousands of amendments.

CLOSING OF THE FILING OF AMENDMENTS RETIREMENT LAW.

Official balance sheet:
22,862 LFI amendments tabled;
12,904 GDR;
2197 LR;
696 PS;
579 LREM;
145 LT,
57 Modem;
118 IDU;
624 NI (including 50 FN).

Consequently, due to lack of time, the committee ended its work without reaching a compromise. The government's initial text will therefore be presented this Monday afternoon to the National Assembly . A return to square one for the executive.

“ Everything will be replayed, the tabling of the amendments, their deliberation with the necessary speaking time. Even if there is the accelerated procedure which is moreover not well accepted by the deputies, including deputies of the majority ”, observes Olivier Rouquan, political scientist and constitutionalist.

Opposition still on the offensive

From right to left, the oppositions will continue their offensive against the government. They have a shooting angle: the government's project is badly put together.

“ It is a question of attacking this text by saying that it is badly prepared. Beyond the text, this project, the oppositions will take the opportunity to demonstrate that they find that Parliament is too rough and that what is at stake is the proper functioning of participatory democracy ", continues Olivier Rouquan.

Many of these great principles are behind the concerns of the government. " It gives a terrible image of amateurism when it was to be the great reform of the quinquennium, " tackles a deputy Les Républicains , while an elected National Rally mocks the " nullity " of the executive.

Finding allies in Emmanuel Macron's camp

Part of the majority, the "left wing", does not hide its fears about the government's plan. The tribunes and interviews of several walking deputies bear witness to this. They said loud and clear that they were against the age of equilibrium at 64 , the idea carried directly by Édouard Philippe.

In the next two weeks, the executive will also have to face the demands of its own political family. " The right wing of the majority is dissatisfied with the vagueness of funding when the left wing notes that on the simulator, the value of the point, the arduousness, the answers are not there, " notes Olivier Rouquan.

► Read also: Pension reform : call for a “dead day” in transport this Monday

Will the government be able to keep its schedule?

The executive has scheduled two weeks of assembly review with a vote scheduled for March 4. Will 84 hours of debate be enough to study more than 40,000 amendments?

" Untenable ", denounces the opposition, especially on the left where the idea of ​​a motion of censure circulates. " Possible, " replied the government. " We can do it but the debates must be held ", hopes a minister.

The other hypothesis is to extend the examination from one to two weeks before the municipal election truce. But that amounts to dragging the ball of pensions even longer. The last scenario would be to draw the weapon of 49.3 . This article of the Constitution which allows the government to adopt a text without the vote of the Parliament.

" Political damage "

" Watch out for collateral damage ," warns political scientist Olivier Rouquan. “ We saw Manuel Valls using it when the context was also very difficult with slingers. It's possible. Now it could do political damage a few weeks before the municipal elections. For the cohesion of the majority and even of the government, this would be problematic. But it is possible ”.

" After all that we have done for two years, it cannot be our way, " assures a member of the government. The hypothesis is not on the table without being completely ruled out.

►Read also: Pension reform: what are we talking about?

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