Withdrawal of Benjamin Griveaux: in the race for the Paris City Hall, who benefits from "the crime"?

The Battle of Paris took an unexpected turn on Friday, February 14. Benjamin Griveaux, invested candidate of the Republic on the march (LREM), threw in the towel because of the disclosure of an exchange of messages and two videos of a sexual nature which he would be at the origin. "Vile attacks", for the former government spokesman, which forced him to withdraw.

For LREM, the blow is hard. From one end to the other, the campaign will have been laborious while the mayor of Paris was announced captive between the rejection of Anne Hidalgo (Socialist Party) and the excellent scores of the party since 2017. In the first round of the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron had indeed reached 34.83% of the vote; in the legislative elections, LREM won 11 out of 18 deputations while in the Europeans the majority list came in first (32.92%).

However, nothing went as planned. After a nomination voted unanimously by an internal party committee, complicated by the dissident candidacy of Cédric Villani, the publication of this unauthenticated video will have been right for Benjamin Griveaux's campaign, which the polls placed in third position behind the outgoing mayor, Anne Hidalgo, and the candidate Les Républicains, Rachida Dati.

"How did we get there in Paris for LREM? While the town hall of Paris seemed to be an open boulevard for them a year ago, today it has become a nightmare", summarizes Brunos Cautrès, researcher at CNRS and at CEVIPOF on France 24.

What solution for LREM?

Shortly before Benjamin Griveaux's speech, while the rumor was spreading, the campaign team tried to put out the fire and summoned elected officials and candidates to rue Sainte-Anne, at LREM headquarters. Displayed objective: find "the strategy to be followed" and "the plan to be implemented on the basis of a proposal".

MP Olivia Grégoire, who has so far been the spokesperson for Benjamin Griveaux, said there will be "whatever happens" an LREM list in the municipal elections in Paris.

Indeed, at this stage, the head of the list in the various districts as well as the teams are already formed, recall the experts interviewed by France 24. LREM remains responsible for finding a charismatic personality to embody it. '' here February 27, deadline for filing lists.

Political scientist Christian Delporte, interviewed by France 24, sees "someone who is not completely involved in the name of Benjamin Griveaux" taking the lead. "Someone has to sacrifice himself for what is going to be a defeat anyway," said the media historian and specialist in political communication, professor of contemporary history at the University of Versailles-Saint Quentin.

Le Monde puts forward several names: the current secretary of state for gender equality, Marlène Schiappa, the mayor of the 9th arrondissement, Delphine Bürkli, the former minister and former nomination contestant Mounir Mahjoubi or even the deputy Olivia Grégoire. The track of the Minister of Health, Agnès Buzyn, was also mentioned but she herself dismissed it because of a busy agenda.

Unthinkable villani

For LREM, it is urgent to decide. The lists must be submitted to the prefecture in less than two weeks. Some are caught dreaming of a return to the fold of Cédric Villani, officially excluded from the presidential party since January 29 after refusing to bend the knee at the request of Emmanuel Macron.

"No, it is too late for that. It is absolutely not possible", judge Christian Delporte "It underlines the not very strategic side of the exclusion of Cédric Villani. The Republic on the move finds itself without a spare wheel", adds Bruno Cautrès.

"It is very difficult to know [who will take his place], analyzes Arnaud Mercier, director of studies at the French Institute of Press (University Assas-Paris2), on the antenna of France 24." However, there is was not in a very positive dynamic. It was not the favorite that was cut in mid-flight. This case can therefore be bad for good for LREM. They could find a candidate capable of bringing something "and relaunch the campaign.

Rachida Dati, the big winner?

"Garbage fair", "abomination", "voyeuristic shipwreck", "threat to democracy": politicians of all stripes as well as other candidates for the Mairie de Paris unanimously condemned the dissemination of the intimate video on the Web attributed to Benjamin Griveaux.

>> Read also: Municipal: five Parisians facing Anne Hidalgo's balance sheet

"According to the latest polls, the voters of Benjamin Griveaux were made up of a pro-LREM hard core but also voters from the right and center-left whose wish was not to see Hidalgo re-elected ", analyzes Christian Delporte. "Benjamin Griveaux embodied credibility against Hidalgo. But we had started to witness a trend reversal due to the candidate's third place in the polls. Center-right voters shifted to Rachida Dati, better placed, and those from center-left towards Villani and Europe Écologie Les Verts. "

Benjamin Griveaux had indeed opted for a campaign anchored to the right so as to take control of the Republicans' electorate. With the disappearance of the local political landscape of Benjamin Griveaux, the latter should naturally return to the fold, especially with the positive dynamics of the campaign of Rachida Dati who, little by little, is catching up with Anne Hidalgo.

The outgoing mayor therefore seems to be the other loser of Benjamin Griveaux's road trip.

The France 24 week summary invites you to come back to the news that marked the week

Download the app