Iowa Caucus: "Taking the Pulse of an America You Can't Hear"

Text by: RFI Follow

In the United States, Iowa opens this Monday, February 3 the ballot of the votes of the Democratic primary, with the traditional caucus, kinds of assemblies of voters who will meet at 7 p.m. (local time) to express their choice among the 11 Democratic candidates still in the nomination race.

Publicity

The suspense remains intact. Four favorites remain fairly close in the polls: former Vice-President Joe Biden at the head, followed closely by Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren. It is Iowa which gives the pulse of the campaign despite the fact that this American Midwestern state weighs only 1% of the population, 90% white and therefore not very representative of diversity.

" This is indeed the problem of the caucuses in Iowa and next week in New Hampshire primary, where it gives an oversized importance in relation to their real demographic and economic weight of two small states which, moreover, are less and less less demographically representative of the racial diversity of the United States ”, analyzes Corentin Sellin, associate professor of history and specialist in the United States.

According to the specialist from the United States, these caucuses “ pose a problem. Perhaps we should change the organization of this primary to stop giving importance to these states, but on the other hand it allows us to take the pulse of an America that we hear very little about. 'Iowa, that is to say Midwestern America, rural America. Iowa voted Obama twice and then voted for Trump in 2016. "

Today's the day, Iowa! Confirm your caucus location at https://t.co/3HaA5wLv2M and make a plan to arrive by 6:30 PM CT. pic.twitter.com/vmzNwW1Kro

" It is interesting to see that this Midwestern America that we often tend to neglect because of two large megalopolises on the coast and to know what this Midwestern America wants as a democratic candidate against Trump, it is an indication very precious for the democrats in their primaries ”, concludes Corentin Sellin.

New rules

A sign that the race is very open. Some 45% of voters in this rural state say they are ready to change their mind on the day of the vote. The method of election is particular in Iowa. There is no vote in a ballot box, but voters meet and debate publicly before choosing the winner, forming groups to support a particular candidate.

Caucuses have historically been created to allow for greater public participation in the presidential election. But the rules change this year. For more transparency, the Democratic Party will publish two new data: the number of supporters of each candidate in the first round and that of the finalists in the last round.

“ The caucus is a closed system, in the sense that it is limited to party voters. In fact, it is the most mobilized base, the most motivated, which ultimately decides the choice of the candidate (...) So it is a system where the designation is in fact based on the most active people of the party. This can be percentages, sometimes, which go up to 5 or 10% ”, observes Hélène Harter, director of the Center for Research in North American History at Panthéon-Sorbonne University.

In 2004, the Iowa Democratic Caucus had only 5.7% of registered voters. They were the ones who therefore nominated the Democrats' candidate for the state of Iowa when they were only 5%. “ This shows that, according to the States, according to the parties, the degree of mobilization and interest is quite uneven. So we are well on the idea that it is the activists who play an extremely central role in the designation process , "concludes the director of the Center for Research on North American History at the Pantheon-Sorbonne University.

► Read also - American Presidential: five things to know about the Iowa caucus

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