Beijing (AFP)
Drastic restrictions in transport, paralyzed tourism, consumption under pressure and turbulence in the industry: the coronavirus epidemic threatens to worsen the slowdown of an already fragile Chinese economy, recalling the trauma of SARS in 2002-2003.
Anxious to contain the virus, which has already infected more than 2,700 people, Beijing has adopted unprecedented containment measures ... at the risk of stopping activity.
The metropolis of Wuhan, the cradle of the virus, is de facto cut off from the world, as is almost all of central Hubei province.
And, anxious to further limit the number of passengers in the midst of the Lunar New Year holiday, the government suspended travel tours in China and abroad on Monday, a blow to tourism, the heavyweight of the economy with 11% of GDP in 2018 according to official figures.
Trip.com, the Chinese giant in online travel reservations and which is eyeing an introduction to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, saw its title on Wall Street collapse by 18% in four sessions. He announced Monday that he will offer a free "cancellation guarantee".
The repercussions could be felt elsewhere in Asia, from Japan to Thailand, where the spending of Chinese tourists is a crucial economic driver.
- Panicked consumers -
Consumption as a whole could go downhill: a climate of panic pushes the Chinese to stay caulked at home, deserting shopping centers, restaurants and cinemas ... which usually record a high attendance in New Year.
One example among many: the popular Chinese pot chain Haidilao closed its hundreds of restaurants in China until January 31.
If consumer spending, notably in transport and entertainment, fell by 10%, Chinese GDP growth could be cut by around 1.2 points, estimates the rating agency Standard & Poor's.
According to her, "consumers will probably avoid public places" and "the sectors exposed to household spending should be the most affected".
What worsen the economic slowdown: Chinese growth last year signed its weakest performance in almost 30 years (+ 6.1%), and Beijing was counting on consumption (3.5 points of growth in 2019 ) to resist.
The specter of the deadly SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic in 2002-2003, which had caused 349 deaths in mainland China, is in everyone's mind.
"At the worst time, in May 2003, passenger traffic (all transport combined) had contracted by 50% over one year and growth in retail sales had been slashed by half in a few months", recalls Julian Evans-Pritchard, from Capital Economics.
Since then, the services sector has clearly strengthened, to represent more than half of the GDP.
However, "the rise of online commerce and meal delivery services could ease the shock," said Evans-Pritchard.
- Manufacturing core -
As "corporate capital spending is extremely sensitive to demand, a prolonged decline in consumption would penalize investment," warns S&P.
The coronavirus "could have a strong economic impact, but of short duration", as for the Sras, anticipates for its part Tommy Wu, of the law firm Oxford Economics, in a comment transmitted to AFP.
And with, according to him, "a less severe impact" than SARS, due to a "faster response from the authorities this time".
At the industrial level, Wuhan's status as both a "logistics hub" and an automobile production center "further complicates the situation," notes S&P.
Wuhan is the base of Dongfeng, the second largest Chinese automaker. Allied to him, the French Renault and PSA have established most of their factories in the country.
The city would have produced 1.7 million vehicles in 2018 and the automotive sector there weighs around 400 billion yuan (52.3 billion euros) annually, according to local media.
And major auto parts suppliers are installed there. "Fragmented supply chains and just-in-time production mean that plant shutdowns in Wuhan will have wider repercussions" elsewhere, insists S&P.
Outside Hubei, ordinary businesses are not spared: Shanghai firms have thus been told not to resume their activity before February 9, municipal officials announced on Monday.
© 2020 AFP