Venezuela: a year later, Juan Guaido is "at the head of a tired opposition"

White hair appeared to him. The features of his face are more marked. In one year, Juan Guaido, the face of the Venezuelan protest, has lost his panache. However, on January 23, 2019, the opponent proclaimed himself, triumphant, interim president of Venezuela, after his election to the head of Parliament. The president of the Venezuelan Assembly, only 35 years old, vigorously demanded the departure of President Nicolas Maduro, raising the hope of a whole people anxious to turn the page of Chavismo.

Twelve months have passed, and Nicolas Maduro is still at the head of a bloodless country plunged into an unprecedented economic and social crisis. Hyperinflation, shortages, corruption make the daily life of Venezuelans more trying every day.

# 23Ene Sostuvimos un encuentro con la Canciller by #Alemania Angela Merkel. Our reaffirms on apoyo y respaldo a la causa venezolana. Todos juntos tenemos la capacidad de hacer la diferencia en Venezuela.

Gracias por el apoyo. #AgendaInternacionalDavos pic.twitter.com/9qqzQc1L7U

"Nothing has changed"

Faced with him, the opposition led by Juan Guaido did not succeed in winning. "For a year, nothing has changed, notes Florence Pinot de Villechenon, professor at ESCP and director of the Center for Studies and Research in Latin America - Europe (Cérale), in an interview with France 24. Juan Guaido , presented as the savior, is today at the head of a tired opposition. " The opponent's popularity with Venezuelans dropped from 63% in January 2019 to 38.9% in December, according to the Datanalisis institute.

It must be said that all his attempts to overthrow power have been in vain. Neither the demonstrations he organized in early 2019, nor even his call to the troops to rise, on April 30, did not succeed: the barracks did not move. The staff remained loyal to Nicolas Maduro.

"Juan Guaido has overestimated his ability to force the end of the Maduro regime, continues the director. The current power is held by the play of economic interests. power because the generals benefit from the gold, drugs and petroleum money the president leaves them. And they don't seem ready to give it up. "

Washington's economic sanctions announced at the end of January 2019 were also not enough. The Venezuelan dictator was able to count on his international allies such as Russia, China, Iran, Turkey and Cuba to circumvent the American embargo on oil exports. Very precious international support when you know that oil generates 96% of the country's revenue.

Words but no acts

The opponent also has strong allies. About fifty countries, led by the United States, recognize the legitimacy of Juan Guaido. Among his supporters, he can count on the European Union. Braving a ban on leaving Venezuelan territory, Maduro's rival began a European tour this week. After going to London on January 21 to meet Boris Johnson, on January 22 in Brussels, he finished his European trip on January 23 in Switzerland to participate in the Davos forum. Its objective: to restore its international stature, to strengthen its foreign support. And leave with concrete proposals for a way out of the crisis.

But to date, things seem to have started badly. If the Spanish Josep Borrel, the head of European diplomacy, gave his "firm support" to the opponent and deplored the blocking situation in Venezuela, he was not able to announce concrete actions of the leaves the EU to force Nicolas Maduro to accept the holding of new elections. It must be said that the EU is struggling to agree on the issue. Any sanction requires the unanimity of the Member States in the EU. Moreover, Juan Guaido does not necessarily wait for the EU to decide on new sanctions, like Washington. Because Venezuelans are the first to suffer from these sanctions on a daily basis.

Concretely, Europe, entangled in Brexit, "has more urgent files to deal with before that of Venezuela, notes Florence Pinot de Villechenon. She also does not want to take the risk of being accused of interference. All the same, there is room for maneuver on the Cuban side. The economic cooperation that the EU maintains with the island could also pass through counterparts. And thus force Havana to take a step back with Caracas. "

Meanwhile, "the wear and tear of the opposition makes the heyday of Nicolas Maduro, who sees the opposition fall a little more into oblivion every day, observes the professor. He can also count on the mass flight of citizens Venezuelans: there are so many fewer opponents to challenge the dictatorship. However, it would only take a few things to revive the popular revolt. "

The France 24 week summary invites you to come back to the news that marked the week

Download the app