The liquidation of the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Qassem Soleimani, may have been one of the most daring foreign policy decisions for the US President Donald Trump's administration, whose repercussions are expected to continue over the days and months, and even years to come, but the course of events depends exactly on what the administration will do Trump after that, US officials have made clear that this operation is an attempt to deter Iranian aggression in the future, and a preventive defense work in the face of any imminent attack. It is noticeable here that Trump and his Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, actually went out for the first time from the scope of the national tweets that remind us of the "accomplished mission" signs, which spread in the first weeks of the Iraq war, but the Iraq war is still producing, until now, events and repercussions, the crisis will not end Soleimani liquidated.
The reprisals that Iran will take over time will often be revealed, in ways that no one expects, and will not be confined to Iraq or even the Middle East, Iranian officials have stated. The Trump administration needs to prepare for a full range of emergencies: cyberattacks, terrorist attacks abroad, on American soil, attempts to assassinate American officials, and more attacks on America's interests in the region. Iran is likely to take more provocative steps on its nuclear program, as it is already expected that Iran will announce its latest move away from the 2015 nuclear agreement, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
The need for a strategy
Trump needs more strategy than just responding to Iran's tactical moves when they happen. He must decide how he wants to resolve this crisis. The goal of the United States at this point should be to reduce escalation, avoid a broader war, and implement it in a way that makes Americans safer in the long run. To this end, the administration should send clear, consistent, not provocative messages, while working quietly to ensure the safety of weak American diplomatic sites. Washington should coordinate with US allies, and it should try to open a diplomatic channel to Tehran, through a third party if necessary, and anything less than that risks plunging the United States into another costly adventure in the Middle East.
There are no good options
In the short term, Iran's response to the assassination of Soleimani will lead it to assess whether the United States will exchange it with a counter strike, and whether the situation will escalate, and will it require major deployments and additional US military operations? Or will the United States try to reduce and de-escalate, for example, by opening a diplomatic channel? And the Trump administration will have to decide how best to defend American employees in weak diplomatic positions abroad, and consider whether it is necessary to evacuate US citizens from certain locations. Some moves, such as sending additional forces to the Middle East, will extend across the line between deterrence and escalation, and may be misinterpreted.
In all of this, Trump has bad options to choose from, as he has found himself without diplomatic channels, and in the midst of a divided and skeptical "Congress". It will be almost impossible for him to keep up with Tehran’s retaliatory response for a long period of time, because more miscalculations may occur on both sides, as recent history of American retaliatory attacks to Iranian-backed attacks against American targets in Iraq already has, but mitigation will be difficult. Also, given the harsh rhetoric rhetoric on both sides, and due to the lack of diplomatic channels between the two countries under this administration, which was present under previous administrations. At the same time, further escalation could mean a broader conventional war. All these decisions will be revealed against the backdrop of regional turmoil, and what complicates matters further is that the Iraqi parliament is now considering expelling American forces from the country, a move that would hinder the fight against ISIS, in the short term, and open the way for greater Iranian influence in Iraq. The long-term.
In order for Trump to deal effectively with the repercussions of Soleimani's death, his administration will need local support, but the president did his blow without consulting the "Congress" or preparing the American public or US allies for what might come next. For this reason, Trump and his team will need, in the coming days, to win the trust of the American people and convince them that intelligence reports justify their decision. This will not be an easy task for any president after the Iraq war. Rather, it will be a very difficult task for Trump, and he will have to prove his justifications, while explaining his administration’s plan clearly to avoid another war in the Middle East that the American people do not want. And he will have to do all of that, focusing on his impending accountability that was caused by his decision to place personal political interests above the national security of the United States.
Given Trump's lack of cohesion and his inability to plan for the next tweet, the task of ridding the country of this labyrinth is likely to lie with American servicemen and diplomats. In other words, to get strong political options and plans, Trump will badly need the same members of the National Security Council, the State Department, and the intelligence community, who have consistently attacked and undermined him for the past three years.
Trump also needs support from the "Congress", but that will be difficult, because the administration has been unable to justify the lack of consultation in the Soleimani liquidation with the leadership of the House and Senate or the G8, which is composed of leaders of the Senate and House of Representatives and heads of related committees. It is clear that the time was sufficient for a briefing, knowing that both members of the House of Representatives and elders never intentionally leaks. The administration will now need to fully inform the "Congress", convince members that it has a sound strategy, appropriate legal justification, and a good plan to preserve the safety of Americans at home and abroad, and any dangerous expansion of this conflict will require the administration to obtain permission from the "Congress." Last year, members of the "Congress" in both parties made it clear that they were not in a mood to war against Iran, and had enacted legislation to that effect.
Trump may not like working with other countries, but he cannot avoid that now, because he needs US allies (as well as China and Russia) to share intelligence about possible retaliatory attacks, and support UN Security Council resolutions if Iran promotes the development of nuclear weapons. The condemnation of France - and not only Russia and China - the assassination of Soleimani is not a good sign. There is no coalition at the moment who is willing to punish Iran more, and it is clear that "maximum pressure" does not achieve the desired results. Unfortunately, Trump cannot attract goodwill all over the world. Most other governments believe that the administration’s policy towards Iran is a rift, which it itself caused, starting with its withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the relationship between the two sides of the Atlantic is necessary for an effective strategy towards Iran, but this relationship is at its weakest since 2003, Because Trump is still in a customs war with European countries.
New facts on the ground
This crisis can easily be consumed all the time of Trump's presidency, and he may soon find himself president of the war, not against it. He should contact the former president, George W. Bush, to find out what happens to his legacy when he deepens into an unnecessary war, and he must consult the former president, Barack Obama, to find out how to rid the country of the war.
Now the Americans are less safe because Trump killed Soleimani. Beheading as tactical plans does not solve America's problem with Iran, the IRGC remains the same, and its attacks on American interests are likely to increase.
The Iranian nuclear program is still standing, while the joint plan is already dead, and Washington is now far from getting the best deal that Trump has promised. In short, the United States is once again on the brink of deep military conflict in the Middle East. Trump and his national security team seem completely unaware of what will happen next and what is at stake. It will be the American people who bear this burden for the days and years ahead.
Trump has bad options to choose from, having found himself without diplomatic channels, and in the midst of a divided and skeptical "Congress", it will be almost impossible for him to keep up with Tehran's revenge reaction for a long period of time, because more miscalculations may occur on both sides. .
- Iran is expected to take more provocative steps regarding its nuclear program, and Iran is likely to announce its latest move away from the 2015 nuclear agreement, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.