Beijing (AFP)

At the lowest in almost 30 years: Chinese growth fell last year to 6.1%, at the time when the trade war with Washington intensified, despite Beijing's efforts to stabilize the economy.

US President Donald Trump keeps repeating that the customs surcharges imposed on China for almost two years have severely damaged the Chinese economy and pushed Beijing to negotiate an agreement - which has been done since Wednesday.

The score announced Friday is in line with the predictions of analysts polled by AFP and the target of 6% to 6.5% set by the government at the beginning of last year.

However, it is in sharp decline compared to 2018, when Chinese growth was at 6.6%, already at its lowest level in almost three decades.

Although questionable, the growth figure is still scrutinized, given the weight of China in the global economy.

In the last quarter of 2019, the growth of the Asian giant stabilized at 6%, a level unchanged from the previous quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (BNS). It was still 6.4% in the first quarter.

"You have to keep in mind that (...) the sources of instability and the challenges are growing" for the Chinese economy, recognized at a press conference Ning Jizhe, an official of the BNS.

- 'Better than expected' -

Since March 2018, Beijing and Washington have imposed reciprocal customs surcharges on hundreds of billions of dollars in annual trade, which has severely affected the Chinese economy and slowed down global growth.

These figures are the first published since the signing Wednesday in Washington of a preliminary trade agreement between the two first world powers, which should allow, at least temporarily, to ease tensions.

Beijing has notably committed to increasing its purchases of American products ($ 200 billion more over two years) in order to reduce the bilateral trade imbalance.

In return, the United States is renouncing the imposition of new customs duties on Chinese exports, but that may not be enough to boost growth this year.

The World Bank also said to expect a further slowdown to 5.9% for 2020. The official target for Beijing should be announced in early March.

The picture is not entirely bleak for the Chinese economy, however: industrial production picked up last month at 6.9% year-on-year (compared to 6.2% in November).

Retail sales for their part remained at the same level in December as the previous month (8%).

Liu He, chief economic adviser to President Xi Jinping and chief negotiator in the trade war with the United States, said that the figures for January, not yet published, reveal "better economic prospects than expected".

- 'New normal' -

Certain indicators remain nevertheless worrying, warns the economist Ting Lu, of the bank Nomura. And to note a strong decline over one year in new housing sales (-1.7%) and investment in real estate (-7.4%).

Some analysts believe, however, that the slowdown in China is structural because the country, formerly nicknamed "the workshop of the world", is becoming a more developed economy. He also sees the number of people of working age decrease for demographic reasons.

The score of 6.1%, which Western economies can envy, is for China its lowest rate since the very bad year 1990 (+ 3.9%) which had been followed by years of double-digit growth or nearly.

But the 2008-2009 financial crisis reduced external demand and pushed the country into debt to support the economy. Debt then forced governments to tighten credit to reduce financial risks.

This is why the Chinese authorities are now very cautious about the stimulus measures that would have been necessary to offset the impact of the trade war.

The slowdown in the Chinese economy is part of a "new normal," economist Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics told AFP.

"What they (the leaders) don't want to see is too rapid a slowdown."

© 2020 AFP