The US can reduce its military presence in Afghanistan in the near future, regardless of whether an agreement is reached with the radical Taliban movement. This was stated by Robert O'Brien, Advisor to the US President for National Security, in an interview with Axios news portal. According to him, the White House has returned to negotiations with the Taliban.

"The affairs of the Afghan forces are going uphill and I believe that soon, at a certain stage, we will come to a situation in which we can reduce the military presence in Afghanistan, regardless of whether there is an agreement or not," O'Brien said.

However, he did not rule out that it would be possible to reach agreements with the Taliban before the end of this year.

O'Brien's statement on the possible withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan was made against the backdrop of reports of the death of two US troops in this country.

“The Department of Defense has announced the death of two soldiers who supported Operation Liberty Sentinel.” Both servicemen died yesterday (January 11th - RT ) after the defeat of their vehicles with a makeshift explosive device in the Afghan province of Kandahar. They participated in operations within the framework of the NATO mission "Decisive Support", - said in a statement posted on the Pentagon website.

At the end of November 2019, U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in Afghanistan on an unannounced visit. Then he announced the desire of the Taliban to conclude a peace agreement. During a meeting with his Afghan counterpart Ashraf Ghani, the American leader also noted that Washington intends to reduce the size of its contingent in Afghan territory to 8.6 thousand troops. At the same time, in July, Trump said in an interview with Fox News that the American side plans to leave in the republic, primarily intelligence units.

“I would have left very strong intelligence there. We must observe ... I would leave - and we will leave - a very strong intelligence, much more than one might think. This is very important, ”said the American leader.

  • Pentagon
  • AFP

The fact that the US Department of Defense is considering reducing the military contingent on Afghan territory was also reported in December by General Mark Milli, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

“We have many options, this is one of them,” Al Arabiya quoted a military official as saying. At the same time, journalists recalled that at the moment in Afghanistan there are about 13 thousand US troops.

“Shift responsibility”

The US military operation in the Afghan Republic has been going on for almost 20 years. The reason for its beginning was the attacks of September 11, 2001. The campaign was most widespread in 2010-2013, while in IRA the number of military personnel from Western countries reached almost 150 thousand people.

At the end of January 2019, the US president announced Washington’s readiness to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, subject to an agreement to resolve the situation in the country. Then the American leader said that Washington began to receive similar offers from representatives of the Taliban.

During the next talks with the Taliban in Doha on September 1, 2019, the U.S. Special Representative for Afghan Reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad, told reporters that the parties had discussed the preliminary conditions for a possible agreement, and one of its points was the withdrawal of 5,000 US troops from Afghanistan during 135 days.

However, a few days later, the negotiation process was interrupted, and Trump canceled the joint consultations, which, according to him, were scheduled for September 8.

“I immediately canceled the meeting and refused the peace talks,” Trump wrote on his Twitter page, noting that the reason for such a move on his part was the death of the American military and another 11 people as a result of the September 5 terrorist attack in Kabul.

Then the Taliban took responsibility for what happened.

Trump later called the talks with the Taliban "dead."

However, in October, the head of the Pentagon, Mark Esper, arrived in Afghanistan to resume contacts with representatives of the Taliban. During his visit, the head of the US Department of Defense confirmed Washington’s plans to reduce the number of US troops in the republic. However, he stressed that this is possible only if a peace agreement is reached with the Taliban.

According to the expert of the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, Vladimir Bruter, trying to come to an agreement with the Taliban, Washington hopes to receive a kind of guarantee of temporary "inviolability of the American contingent."

“The US is trying to agree that the Taliban do not kill American troops for at least a few months. If they succeed, then the withdrawal of troops from the republic will proceed at a faster pace. If the parties fail to reach such agreements, Washington will reduce its contingent in the same way as in Syria - one step forward, two backward. But before withdrawing part of its troops, the White House must demonstrate to the world that the American side was by no means the loser, although in fact it is, ”said the analyst.

  • The explosion in Kabul. Archive photo
  • Reuters
  • © Omar Sobhani

At the same time, Bruther pointed out the duplicity of the United States, which act differently “depending on the degree of benefit”.

“The death of an American soldier in Iraq was the reason for the assassination of Suleymani, and the death of two US troops in Afghanistan for some reason does not serve as an excuse for liquidating the leaders of the Taliban, on the contrary, Washington still wants to make a deal with them. At the same time, the Taliban continue to attack American soldiers, ”the expert emphasized.

The true reason for the possible withdrawal of part of the American troops from the Afghan republic, according to Bruter, may be the desire to harm Russia.

“The US believes that if they leave Afghanistan, then the Taliban will cause inconvenience to Russia through Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, as well as create problems for the central government in Kabul, which maintains contacts with Iran. In this case, the United States is beneficial to hand over the situation in order to shift the responsibility to everyone else, ”the expert explained.

Bruter’s opinion is shared by a senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the IMEMO RAS named after E.M. Primakova Vladimir Avatkov. He believes that US statements about the withdrawal of troops should not be taken with enthusiasm, since, most likely, these military can be transferred to other countries in the Middle East. In addition, according to the expert, one should not exclude a situation in which Washington completely abandons its promises.

“The United States traditionally does not fully withdraw its troops. If the US military entered any country, then it is almost impossible to get them out of there. This is clearly seen in Iraq, whose parliament voted in favor of the withdrawal of US troops, but the US said it was not going to leave there. Washington also repeatedly announced the withdrawal of troops from Syria, but in the end occupied the energy field. It should be assumed that the American troops in any case will remain at those points in Afghanistan that are beneficial to them, ”the analyst predicted.

“Brings chaos and instability”

According to experts, the likely reduction in the US military presence in the IRA can also be explained by the fact that even Washington began to realize the failure of its operation in this country. The United States not only failed to resolve the situation in Afghanistan, but also tense the situation there, analysts say. In their opinion, the inefficiency of US policy in Afghanistan is indicated, first of all, by the killings of the US military, including by the Taliban.

At the end of June 2019, two American troops were killed in Afghanistan. This was stated in the mission of NATO. The incident occurred the day after an unannounced visit by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Kabul, where he met with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.

In total, about 2.3 thousand American troops became victims of the conflict in Afghanistan. This spring was reported by US Senators Rand Paul and Tom Udall. They also introduced a bill called AFGHAN - American Forces Going Home After Noble ( RT ), according to which all US forces must be withdrawn from the country within a year.

As Vladimir Avatkov notes, "the US operation in Afghanistan was, to put it mildly, unsuccessful."

“She turned the Afghan population against Washington, as the US military neglected local traditions and continues to do so. In addition, the United States is trying to establish its own rules of the game, which are imposed on local residents and structures, ”the expert explained.

At the same time, Washington still "needs to create the appearance of a withdrawal of troops," since threats to American bases in the region are increasingly heard in the Middle East, Avatkov believes.

“The US cannot ignore this when interacting with its regional and global partners. The era of US dominance in the world seems to be drawing to a close. They are still trying to impose their will and do what they see fit, in different parts of the world. But this is the last attempt related to the desire to stay on Olympus, ”said the expert.

Avatkov also suggested that some of the troops that the United States may withdraw from the IRA will be redeployed to Libya, because "the United States is unhappy that the situation in Libya is resolved without them, through the mediation of Russia, Turkey and Europe."

  • US Army soldiers during an armed clash with militants in Afghanistan
  • Reuters
  • © Parwiz

“It is possible that they will transfer their military there - this is one of the scenarios, but the most conflicting and dangerous,” the analyst said.

At the same time, Avatkov emphasized that the presence of American troops in the Middle East is a destabilizing factor, "because local forces are fighting around their presence in the region."

“In addition, the deployment of US soldiers does not guarantee stability and security, but, on the contrary, brings chaos and instability,” the analyst concluded.

* "Taliban" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003 .