It is a diplomatic victory for Russia. With the help of its ad hoc ally, Turkey, Moscow has managed to impose, since Sunday January 12, a cease-fire in Libya, a country plunged into chaos since 2011 and today torn apart by a civil war between the government of Tripoli (GNA), recognized by the UN and embodied by Fayez al-Sarraj, and the forces of Marshal Haftar, a strong man from eastern Libya. Better still, Turkey and Russia managed to bring the two men together for talks in Moscow which aimed to ratify this truce.
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"By succeeding in bringing them together, Vladimir Putin shows that he is able to take control of a new major geopolitical file, while until then, all contact between the two belligerents was excluded", details Elena Volochine, correspondent for France 24 in Moscow.
Russia and Turkey, allies of circumstance
The two states are not at their first attempt. In just a few years, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Poutine have established themselves as key players in the war in Syria. Turkey supported rebel groups, while Russia saved the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
In Libya, they are trying to replay the scenario. They managed to impose the idea of a cease-fire even though they are supporting two opposing camps there too. Ankara supports the Tripoli government led by Fayez al-Sarraj. And if Moscow officially recognizes the latter, the Kremlin would discreetly support Marshal Haftar with Russian funds, weapons and mercenaries belonging to the paramilitary group Wagner.
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Turkey and Russia succeeded in imposing a cease-fire on the belligerents in Libya on Sunday, the terms of which were to be negotiated and signed in Moscow by Fayez al-Sarraj and Marshal Khalifa Haftar. If finally the strong man from eastern Libya left the meeting without signing it and demanding "two more days of reflection", the Russian Defense Ministry said that an "agreement in principle had been reached". Despite this setback, the simple fact that the two protagonists of the conflict moved in person is notable: "The fact of having brought Haftar and Sarraj and in itself a success for the Russian-Turkish mediation", explains Valérie Collombier on the 'antenna de France 24. "Nobody had succeeded."
Interests to defend in the region
It must be said that the two occasional allies have economic interests in the region. Turkey has petroleum aims, thanks to a controversial agreement with the government of al-Sarraj, which widens the Turkish continental shelf and allows it to claim the exploitation of certain deposits in the Mediterranean.
Russia also intends to preserve its economic interests in this oil-rich country. He saw an outlet for the sale of his wheat and his weapons. Visiting Moscow in October 2018, Libyan Minister of Economy Nasser al-Derssi, for example, said he wanted to buy a million tonnes of wheat and spoke of the revival of a railway construction project by Russia for 2 , 5 billion euros, interrupted by the civil war. Before 2011, Russia had also signed promising multi-billion dollar contracts for arms sales and oil projects in Libya, which was then one of its major Arab customers.
Russia looking for influence in Africa
Building on its success in Syria, Moscow has considerably increased its influence in the Middle East. And now turns to Africa where Russia is trying to seduce local heads of state.
In October 2019, the Kremlin invited forty African heads of state to the seaside resort of Sochi for the very first Russia-Africa summit. During the latter, organized from 22 to 24 October, the Russian president promised to double trade within Africa over the next five years.
"Since the Ukrainian crisis and the policy of both European and American sanctions, many European and Western markets have closed to Russia, and Africa has established itself as an interesting geographical area to find new outlets", note on RFI Arnaud Kalika, specialist in Russia.
>> Read also: Russia wants to upset the established order in Africa
Russia and Vladimir Putin wish to pose themselves as an alternative to the colonial powers: "For a long time, neocolonialism was mainly embodied in the French-speaking part by France. We have to get out of the tête-à-tête with the old colonial powers. what Russia offers. China has offered an economic component, Russia comes with military cooperation ", explained in October Louis Keumayou, Africa specialist and president of the African Information Club, interviewed by France 24.
End Russia's outcast status
To continue diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict, an international conference on Libya will be held in Berlin on Sunday under the auspices of the UN, the German government confirmed on Tuesday.
"Vladimir Putin said that this cease-fire was a first step, but that the peace process should be overseen by the UN. It was also the subject of the visit of German Chancellor Angela Merkel to Moscow ", details Elena Volochine, France 24 correspondent in Russia.
Several countries will be represented at the conference, including Russia, Turkey, the United States, China or Italy and France, but there is still some doubt about the participation of Marshal Haftar and Fayez al-Sarraj, all two guests but whose presence is not confirmed at this stage.
Russia hopes, thanks to this dossier, to regain frequentability undermined by the annexation of Crimea during the Ukrainian war, the assassination of the ex-spy Sergei Skripal in London, or even the unwavering support for Bashar al-Assad.
"Russia now wants to assert itself as a partner of the West to get out of its pariah status," concludes Elena Volochine.
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