On Saturday, January 11, a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Angela Merkel will be held in Moscow, which will arrive in the Russian capital on a working visit. According to the Kremlin’s press service, during the talks it is planned to discuss topical issues on the international agenda, including the situation in Syria and Libya, as well as the escalation of tension in the Middle East caused by an American air strike at Baghdad airport on January 3.

“The issues of resolving the intra-Ukrainian conflict will also be examined in the context of the implementation of the Minsk“ Set of Measures ”of 2015 and the agreements reached at the summit in the Norman format on December 9, 2019 in Paris,” the Kremlin noted.

According to Steffen Seibert, the official representative of the German Cabinet of Ministers, on the eve of the visit, the head of the German Foreign Ministry, Heiko Maas, will accompany Merkel, and in addition to foreign policy problems, the leaders will also discuss bilateral issues.

Putin and Merkel last talked on the phone at the end of December, and the previous personal meeting between the Russian president and German chancellor took place in Paris - before the start of the “Norman Four” negotiations.

"Act as intermediaries"

Analysts believe that the key issue in the upcoming talks will be the settlement of the situation in the Persian Gulf. The situation in the region became aggravated after the assassination of the Iranian General of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Kassem Suleimani and the deputy head of the Iraqi Shiite militia Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. In response, Iran delivered ballistic missile strikes at US military bases in Iraq.

Commenting on the situation in the Middle East, the German Foreign Minister in an interview with Bild said that Berlin intends to use all diplomatic opportunities to reduce tensions in the region. Moscow also called for de-escalation in the Persian Gulf.

  • Road near Baghdad International Airport, January 3, 2020
  • © Iraqi Security Media Cell via REUTERS

It is worth noting that back in July, the Russian Foreign Ministry introduced the concept of collective security in the region, within the framework of which it announced the need to create an organization for security and cooperation in the Persian Gulf zone.

Vladimir Putin also drew attention to the importance of the emergence of such a structure in October: “We propose to put aside the accumulated prejudices, mutual claims and, in fact, from scratch try to create an organization for security and cooperation in which, in addition to the Gulf countries, as observers “Russia, China, the United States, the EU, India and other interested states could also enter.”

Now, according to experts, amid a sharp escalation of tension in Iranian-American relations, it is important for Russia and Germany to exchange positions on this issue. So, Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics of the Moscow State Pedagogical University, noted that Moscow and Berlin can act as intermediaries.

“After all, both states have always supported the preservation of the nuclear deal, the normalization and development of relations between the West and Iran, and the lifting of US sanctions from Tehran. Both Russia and the Federal Republic of Germany are striving to mitigate and subsequently eliminate the conflict between the United States and the Islamic Republic, ”the source said.

A similar point of view is shared by Vladimir Olenchenko, senior researcher at the Center for European Studies of IMEMO RAS. According to him, Vladimir Putin and Angela Merkel will most likely talk about what steps each side should take to normalize the situation in the Persian Gulf zone.

“The exchange of views between leaders is extremely important, since the events that took place in this region have an ambiguous interpretation in the information field,” the analyst said.

Libyan issues

According to experts, at the upcoming meeting, the parties will also touch on the situation in Libya, since both Moscow and Berlin are interested in resolving the internal conflict in this country.

Recall that the other day Vladimir Putin met with Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan - as a result of negotiations, the parties announced their readiness to “contribute to the success of the Berlin process to advance the Libyan settlement.” This was announced by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a press conference in Istanbul.

  • Armed confrontation in Libya, May 2019
  • Reuters
  • © Goran Tomasevic

According to Vladimir Shapovalov, negotiations between the Russian leader and the German Chancellor will be a continuation of the consultations held with the Turkish president.

“Russia, consistently advocating a peaceful political process to resolve the situation in Libya, seeks to enlist the support of Germany in this matter. The parties will consider the mechanisms of transition from the civil war in Libya to the stage of peaceful resolution of problems. Germany is interested in this, because it is experiencing a serious migration crisis, ”Shapovalov said.

For the same reason, Germany can also assist in rebuilding Syria - this, according to the analyst, Vladimir Putin will also talk with Angela Merkel in the discussion of the Syrian settlement.

“Despite the fact that Berlin has not yet announced its readiness to deal with this issue, Russia will try to agree on this with the German side,” the expert suggested.

Guarantors of the Minsk Agreements

Another major topic on the agenda will be the intra-Ukrainian conflict in the Donbass, analysts say. After the December meeting of the “Norman Four” in Paris, which discussed the situation in eastern Ukraine and the prospects for resolving the conflict, Angela Merkel noted that the parties agreed on the need to agree on political steps to hold local elections in the Donbass.

Vladimir Putin, in turn, emphasized that "there is no other alternative than the Minsk agreements, and everything needs to be done so that they are fully implemented."

However, shortly after the summit, the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Vadim Pristayko, said that the leaders of the “Norman Four” could change the Minsk agreements if they wanted. According to the minister, such measures would allow to “unblock” some fundamental issues in the framework of the implementation of these agreements.

Against the backdrop of such statements from Kiev, negotiations on the Ukrainian issue are becoming even more important for both Moscow and Berlin, since there is a need to clarify the positions of the parties on this issue, said Vladimir Shapovalov.

“Russia and Germany are the parties - guarantors of the Minsk agreements. And therefore, despite the fact that countries have different assessments of the situation in Ukraine, dialogue is possible here, especially since it has a basis in the form of general agreements and Steinmeier’s formula, ”the expert noted.

  • Leaders of the "Norman Four" at the summit in Paris on December 9
  • © Ian Langsdon / REUTERS

According to him, Russia remains interested in ensuring that the Minsk Agreements "remain and exist."

“The president of Russia will probably strive for Germany to once again bring to the Ukrainian leadership the importance of observing the Minsk agreements,” the analyst emphasized.

“Speak in a united front”

As for bilateral relations, the construction of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline will become the main issue at the talks between Vladimir Putin and Angela Merkel, analysts say.

Recall that during a telephone conversation at the end of December, the leaders of the Russian Federation and the Federal Republic of Germany confirmed their intention to continue supporting this project. At the same time, on December 20, US President Donald Trump signed a defense budget, which includes sanctions against Nord Stream 2 operators. Against such steps on the part of Washington, Angela Merkel spoke.

“We are against extraterritorial sanctions, and this is not since the decision yesterday, but with Iran we have the same problem. I also see no other option but to negotiate, but to negotiate resolutely that we do not accept this practice, that these extraterritorial sanctions have an impact, we will see how things will develop around Nord Stream 2, ”Merkel told performance time in the Bundestag.

However, despite these statements by the German side, already on December 21, the US Treasury announced sanctions against Nord Stream 2, after which the Swiss company Allseas suspended work on the project.

The Kremlin called the American restrictions on the project illegal, but emphasized that the construction of the gas pipeline would be completed in any case.

Vladimir Shapovalov expects that during the negotiations Moscow and Berlin will confirm their readiness to complete and put into operation Nord Stream 2 in 2020.

“Russia and Germany take close positions on the implementation of this project, since it is beneficial for both sides. For Moscow and Berlin, it’s now important to coordinate positions and act as a united front in order to neutralize the consequences of US sanctions against Nord Stream 2, the analyst believes.

  • Construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline
  • globallookpress.com
  • © Stefan Sauer / dpa

According to experts, Russia and Germany will continue to build up cooperation, despite Washington’s opposition, since there is political will for both Moscow and Berlin.

“Germany is the flagship of the EU, and Russia is one of the leading countries in the world. Mutually beneficial partnership of the parties is extremely important for the successful development of the economies of both states, ”summed up Olenchenko.