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10 January 2020The citizens of Taiwan, one of the most vibrant Asian democracies but also a country that lives with the sword of Damocles of a possible conflict with China, go to vote on Saturday in crucial elections that, rather than the outcome, present elements uncertainty about how Beijing will interpret the result.There seems to be little doubt that the "independence" president Tsai Ing-wen manages to win the election race. Polls give it over 50 percent, while its competitor Han Kuo-yu - mayor of Kaohsiung, a member of the nationalist party Kuomintang (KMT) who has a closer approach to Beijing - is hovering around 20 percent. And Tsai's victory would be further favored in the event of high turnout among the 19 million eligible voters. Tsai is also particularly appreciated by young people for the progressive steering it has given to the country.
Hong Kong effect
In reality Tsai and his Progressive Democratic Party (DPP) received unexpected help from Hong Kong. If you look at the last year of Taiwanese politics, in fact, you can see that there has been a defeat in the 2018 political elections, which made us think of an alternation in sight, an unstoppable comeback.
The political crisis in Hong Kong put petrol in the engine of the DPP: months and months of pro-democracy protests, clashes, repression, with China threatening a harsh reaction. Tsai expertly rode the tiger, making the vote a referendum for or against China. And putting economic concerns in the background in the event of a tough confrontation with Beijing, which have been a workhorse of the Han campaign. Moreover, these proved to be a blunt weapon, given the economy, in Taiwan, it is not going badly at all. In 2019 the estimate is that its GDP has grown by 2.5 percent: for the first time in 20 years Taipei is the "Asian tiger" that grows the most. The four "Asian tigers" are by convention Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong and, in fact, Taiwan.
Again, Tsai must thank a favorable situation: the ongoing trade war between the United States and China has in fact favored the "rebel province". Investments that would have probably ended up in China in a relaxed climate went to Taiwan. This framework also stimulated a further drop in the unemployment rate, which is constantly below 4 percent.
The shadow of Beijing
Apparently liquidated, therefore the internal opponent, for Tsai the other, more burning dossier remains open: Beijing. After conducting an electoral campaign aimed at exorcising the Chinese ghost, in view of the vote from Tsai's circle, clear messages have departed towards the cumbersome motherland. "I don't think China should read Taiwan's elections as its own victory or defeat," Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said today. "If China were to read too much between the lines of our elections and to see that the victory of someone (Tsai, ed.) Is his defeat, then there could be a scenario in which China is committed to military intimidation and diplomatic isolation, or the use of economic measures as punishment against Taiwan. That is what we do not want to see. "
Certainly, however, a confirmation of Tsai would be read by Beijing as a slap, especially at a time when the "one country, two systems" model, which he adopted in Hong Kong, is being questioned in the former British colony by pro-democracy protesters. It is basically the same approach that it could deem practicable to arrive at a possible non-conflictual solution with Taiwan. And that Tsai has explicitly rejected in recent days: "I want to reiterate that Taiwan will never accept 'one country, two systems'. The great majority of Taiwanese public opinion opposes it".
Wu also denounced the fact that throughout the election period, Chinese interference was repeated virtually "every day". They went from the new Chinese aircraft carrier in the waters of the Taiwan Strait, to restrictions on direct tourism on the island, up to the dissemination of fake news on online social platforms. Disinformation that apparently has not caught on.
The defense theme
This cumbersome Chinese presence meant that the defense issue was central to Tsai's campaign. Taiwan, whose military spending will not exceed $ 20 billion in 2020, would not have much hope of withstanding a military impact from China, which has steadily increased its military capabilities and is estimated to have spent something like 200 billion in 2018. dollars. Even with the supply of new radar systems and new warplanes granted by the United States of the Trump Administration would not be enough. A defense of Taiwan, however, would imply involvement in the conflict also by the United States. And this makes the risk extremely high for the whole world.
The hypothesis of a conflict is not considered by observers to be probable, but neither is it a science fiction one. On the other hand, Chinese President Xi Jinping - the strongest Chinese leader since Mao Zedong's times - has never hidden his ambition to complete unification. Just a week ago he reiterated that Taiwan "must be and will be" reunited with the Chinese motherland. Taipei must renounce the idea of independence that "would go against the course of history". In this sense, China "reserves the option to take all necessary measures," he warned. Including, therefore, the use of force.
For his part, Tsai in his speech at the beginning of the year (one day before Xi also spoke) expressed a position on a total collision course with Beijing: "I would like to ask China to fully take note of the existence of the Republic of China in Taiwan" .