• Politics.All the ministers of the new Government of Pedro Sánchez

José Luis Escrivá is, without a doubt, one of the greatest connoisseurs of Social Security . Moreover, there are few economists who better dominate not only the pension situation but also the public expenditure in Spain. Not surprisingly, his position as president of the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), since he has held since 2014 was proposed by the then Minister of Finance, Cristóbal Montoro, has allowed him to access and study in depth the situation of the public accounts

And precisely those circumstances make it remarkably striking that he will become the Minister of Social Security of Pedro Sánchez. First, because it was the Popular Party who assigned him the task of creating and directing the AIReF, something that has undoubtedly been able to perform with recognized success. But especially, because Escrivá will go from being the person in charge of the independent body that must supervise the accounts of all Public Administrations, and therefore those of the Government, to be part of that same Executive. If the auditor is part of the audited company .

And that entry into the political sphere to the detriment of Magdalena Valerio, a movement in which on the other hand Vice President Calviño has had much to do, will force her to try to reverse but also sure to justify measures that as president of the AIReF criticized. In exchange, Pedro Sánchez will add to his team a recognized and very technical economist whose decisions, at least at first, will be widely respected. A profile, therefore, that could not be further from that presented by the ministers of Podemos.

Pensions

Its biggest challenge will be how to undertake and finance the revaluation of pensions with the CPI promised by Sánchez e Iglesias. At the beginning of last year, for example, the Fiscal Authority estimated that linking inflation benefits would have a cumulative cost overrun of 100,000 million euros in just ten years, and Escrivá itself has warned on numerous occasions of the huge expenditure and imbalances that this decision would generate in the system.

Therefore, and although he always considered that the problem of pensions is "manageable", the still president of the AIReF repeatedly demanded from the socialist government measures such as "modify the requirements for access to the pension to encourage the increase of the effective age of retirement »; «The increase in the pension career beyond 25 years»; or even maintain the sustainability factor introduced by the Executive of Mariano Rajoy.

In short, actions that the PSOE and even more can have rejected frontally , and now Escrivá will have to defend and, where appropriate, introduce in the essential reform that the deficit of the Social Security system requires.

SMI

One of the reasons why AIReF has won the praises of economists and political forces, regardless of their respective positions, is because of the ability it has exhibited to advance the consequences of political decisions and stand firm in its notices. However, there is one aspect in which this constant has not been fulfilled, and it is not much less an accessory proposal: the increase in the Minimum Interprofessional Salary (SMI).

When the agreement of Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias was known to raise the SMI to 900 euros, AIReF warned that the measure would prevent the creation of 40,000 jobs and would have negative consequences on the consumption and growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP ). "It's a really intense climb that is unprecedented in the series," he warned. In this way, and although with a somewhat smaller figures, AIReF joined the warnings of the Bank of Spain and many other study services, and faced the Government of Sánchez.

But six months later, the vision of the Fiscal Authority changed as intensely as surprisingly. "We went from negative," they explained from the agency, to which they added that "there is no pattern that tells us that the autonomous communities most sensitive to the rise of the SMI have had a more unfavorable behavior than expected." The rectification supposed, therefore, a total realignment with the position of the Government and an important support in the argument of its next head, Nadia Calviño .

In his new position, it is true, he will not be responsible for this area since the new increase of the SMI will be led by the Minister of Podemos, Yolanda Díaz. But, without a doubt, the fact of being in such a close Ministry will allow the former head of BBVA Research to contribute his ideas and, above all, that Sánchez and Iglesias can take their star measure in the workplace of greater strength .

Deficit

Something similar will happen with the budgetary deviation since, although it will not be your direct responsibility, it will be at the forefront of the Public Administration area that has more problems with the deficit. In addition, with the appointment of Escrivá, Sánchez adds to his cause one of the most critical voices in the face of the Government's obvious inability to reduce budget deviation. The AIReF, meanwhile, is left without a president, something that was already known, since his term was running out next February; but also, with a certain shadow of doubt since the person ultimately responsible for championing its independence and for carving the organism's reputation will have crossed the threshold .

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  • Social Security
  • Pedro Sanchez
  • Pablo Iglesias
  • Yolanda Diaz
  • José Luis Escrivá
  • minimum salary

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