Seven decades since Taiwan was politically separated from China, yet the big and threatening neighbor was at the heart of the island's presidential campaign. The outgoing president, Tsai Ing-wen, refuses that the island country becomes a "new Hong Kong" while the city-state is agitated by a movement pro-democracy critical of the Chinese influence.
Some 19 million voters are called to vote on Saturday, January 10 between the outgoing president and her main opponent, Han Kuo-yu, fiercely pro-Beijing and highlighting the economic benefits that the island could derive from a rapprochement. They will also elect their deputies.
In power since 2016, President Tsai Ing-wen presents herself as the guarantor of democratic values in the face of authoritarianism in China.
Beijing, the island's largest trading partner, considers Taiwan one of its provinces and has vowed to one day regain control, by force if necessary.
The President Loser A Year Ago
China has never hidden its wish to see Tsai Ing-wen and the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP, pro-independence) be ousted from power and has not stopped hardening the tone with its neighbor for four years.
China has thus cut off all official communications with the Taiwanese government while intensifying economic pressures and military exercises. In the past three years, it has also uprooted seven countries allied with Taiwan, threatening them with economic sanctions in particular. The island is only recognized by 15 states in the world, mostly from the poor nations of Latin America and the Pacific. The Vatican remains the last in Europe.
Last February, Chinese President Xi Jinping appeared threatening, saying that the island's independence would lead to a "terrible disaster" and that the country's reunification with the mainland was "inevitable".
Paradoxically, these threats have been beneficial for Tsai Ing-wen, who was undoubtedly lost almost a year ago, after a huge breakthrough by the opposition of the Kuomintang during the local elections.
But public opinion has gradually turned against Beijing thanks to the president's positions on the Sino-American trade war and especially the Hong Kong crisis: "Ms. Tsai has constantly presented herself as the best person to defend sovereignty from Taiwan, "Bonnie Glaser, a Taiwan and China specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told AFP.
"It is estimated that the rise in the polls is due to a Hong Kong effect. The situation there acts as a mirror for Taiwanese society. Voters are afraid of being next on the list of Beijing," said Baptiste Fallevoz , international columnist and former correspondent of France 24 in China.
Capitalize on the Hong Kong crisis
"Hong Kong today, Taiwan tomorrow." The outgoing president's slogan clearly capitalizes on the Hong Kong crisis to rally voters. The neighboring city-state has been the scene of monster protests since June to denounce Beijing's interference in the affairs of its semi-autonomous region, to request reforms, particularly in the area of democracy, or even an independent investigation into police violence.
During the last televised debate between candidates, Tsai Ing-wen read extracts from a letter written by Hong Kong demonstrators: "I ask that the Taiwanese people not believe the Chinese Communists, do not believe any pro-Communist official and do not fall China's money trap. " This discourse is very promising among a Taiwanese youth who very closely followed the pro-democracy mobilization in Hong Kong. The campaign team is trying to attract these voters, described by experts as the kingmakers of Saturday's poll.
>> Read also: "Hong Kong: sharp rise in post-traumatic stress disorder since the start of the crisis"
In a video posted online this week on her Facebook page, viewed over a million times, the president's campaign team presents clashes between police and protesters in the former British colony as a warning. This campaign clip begins with images of young Taiwanese people going about their daily activities, between evenings and video games, before switching to urban guerrilla scenes in Hong Kong.
"A few hundred kilometers away, many young people defend their freedoms at the cost of tears and blood," said the voice-over, calling for "to shout loud and clear that we are choosing democracy".
A strategy that seems to pay off according to the latest polls published ten days before the election (they are prohibited in the final stretch of the campaign). Tsai Ing-wen seemed to benefit from a comfortable lead over his opponent.
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