Ahmed Fadl-Khartoum

The conspiracy theory against the revolution and the state of intense polarization due to the insertion of new paths into Sudan's regions in Juba negotiations, and the burden of the outbreak of conflicts in the far east and west of the country, according to experts and political activists.

Instead of discussing the negotiations hosted by Juba, the capital of South Sudan, the paths of Darfur and the two regions "South Kordofan and Blue Nile" where the war is burning, the mediators opened the door wide to enter other paths to the center, north and east.

But there are other reasons related to the shock caused by the revolution by overthrowing the regime of President Omar al-Bashir, which is holding and controlling the army, police, and security apparatus, and the transition to a civilian government in the hands of the regular forces in the hands of its military partners.

Field Marshal al-Bashir was commander of the army, police, and security, and even the Rapid Support Forces were ordering him, while after the revolution, the military supervised the appointment of the interior and defense ministers of the transitional government.

Security vacuum
The strategic expert, Major General Amin Ismail Majzoub, points to the occurrence of fluidity and security liquidity after the change brought about by the revolution, due to the withdrawal of some powers of the police, the security apparatus and public order and the change of laws.

He tells Al-Jazeera Net that it was more beneficial, after withdrawing these powers, to delegate to other parties, such as the army, so that a security vacuum does not occur.

Amin Ismail Majzoub: Withdrawing some of the powers of the police and the security apparatus, the latest security fluidity (Al-Jazeera)

Majzoub attributes the emergence of "nigraz" gangs, who escaped in security, traffic and criminal events, to withdrawing powers, and he adds that this developed into tribal clashes in El Geneina and Port Sudan.

It is reported that the matter developed into tribal dismay due to poor follow-up and decisiveness, which led to tribal recruitment by tribal members in the regular forces of their tribes, due to the absence of transportation, which contributed to the attachment of these individuals to their areas and tribes.

The federal government was forced to send military reinforcements to Port Sudan and El Geneina to separate the rival tribes, after complaints of police and military personnel in those cities biasing to their ethnicities.

Governmental weakness
The spokesperson for the Office of the Sudan Liberation Forces gathering inside Yazid Dafallah machine guns rejects that the conflicts in Port Sudan and El Geneina are a process of pulling the parties, as much as they are weak in the transitional and state governments.

And he confirms that there is a security imbalance that resulted in negligence in resolving the unaffected, and believes that it should be among the priorities of the transitional government to seize arms and remove them from the hands of the semi-regular forces, and to amend the conditions of any power outside the state’s apparatus.

The leader of the activist grouping in Darfur notes that the events in Al-Geneina used heavy weapons that should not be in the hands of non-regular forces, along with four-wheel drive vehicles and uniforms, which resulted in internal and external displacement in Chad.

He adds that the army, police and security forces must be reformed by changing their combat doctrine and defining their functions in the constitution, and he proposes the dismissal of governors and leaders of the security and military services in states that have experienced lawlessness, because they are not qualified to protect people.

Syed Ali Abu Amna: There is a conspiracy against Sudan (Al-Jazeera)

Government priorities
For his part, the head of the United Popular Front for Liberation and Justice in eastern Sudan, Syed Ali Abu Amna, expressed his surprise at what he had touched upon by the leaders of the transitional government in Khartoum about the tribal conflicts.

He explains to Al-Jazeera Net that he arrived in Khartoum from Port Sudan last Saturday, and upon his meeting with senior government and army leaders, he felt their confidence in imposing government control.

"I didn't feel that they were afraid, but the reality is lying to it. This means two options, either that the government is weak or preoccupied with other priorities and tribal conflicts are not receiving their attention."

Abu Amna supports the existence of a conspiracy behind what is going on, indicating that there are unknown parties (Alnegraz) that ignited Port Sudan again, because Nubia and Al-Buni Amer downtown are calm, but these parties are exploiting their presence on the far outskirts of the city and fueling the conflict.

He says, "I am not a fan of coincidences, what is happening is an intentional act that has found a fertile environment and has someone who is pushing it for purposes not related to social affairs because of political polarization," referring to the Juba negotiations.

Foci of crisis
However, strategic expert Amin Ismail Majzoub rules out that there will be an organization of tribal conflict incidents or an external dimension, and he calls what happens as "crisis spots" that are expected to expand unless the state simplifies its prestige and addresses the problem of hawakeer (lands).

However, Majzoub agrees with Abu Amna that the negotiating rounds in Juba may have been a catalyst for the conflicts that arise, because each side wants to show their cards on the ground.

The tribes of Al-Bunni Amir and the matter in Port Sudan entered into bloody confrontations about two months ago, due to the rivalry over who represents eastern Sudan in the Juba negotiations.

Within six months, three tribal clashes erupted in Port Sudan, with the outskirts of Al-Buni Amer and Nubia, and hundreds of dead and wounded.

Majzoub says, "This chaos is old and does not resemble Sudan or the change that has taken place. There is a revolution against corruption and tyranny and the people were expected to rally around the new leadership."

At the level of the ruling coalition for the forces of freedom and change, its leaders believe that their military partners in the government are not fulfilling their duty stipulated in the constitutional document to protect the revolution and the country.

A member of the Field Committee for Freedom and Change Forces Sharif Othman considers that there is a deliberate failure by the police to thwart the transitional government, in the sense that some of its elements belong to the defunct regime, especially some batches of police college officers.

In his opinion of Al-Jazeera Net, he sees the necessity of removing the police elements loyal to the regime of the deposed President Omar Al-Bashir, and replacing them with national elements that believe in the change that occurred.