For the second day in a row, hundreds of thousands of people have been out on the streets of Iran to mourn the slain top general. During the funeral ceremony held today in the capital Tehran, people screamed "Death to America".
"God Almighty has promised to avenge Soleimani," said General Esmail Ghaani today, who replaced Soleimani as the new commander of the elite force Quds.
It is likely that Iran will respond to the killing of Soleimani. He was one of the most powerful in the country, according to some second-ranking judges in the hierarchy, after Ayatolla Ali Khamenei, and Iran does not want to prove weak. Iran wants to give again - perhaps more than that.
Vulnerable US targetsIn an outright war, Iran is without a chance against the United States. The mighty US army could destroy Iran completely. Therefore, so-called asymmetric warfare is more likely, that is, Iran is trying to hit vulnerable US targets. For example:
- Continue to attack the US embassy in Iraq's capital Baghdad (yesterday, two rockets landed at the embassy).
- Attack the relatively small US force in Syria.
- Kill or kidnap American citizens.
- Sabotage oil transports through the Hormuz Strait.
- Attack US allies in the region, such as Saudi Arabia.
In order to avoid the US responding tenfold to a possible revenge attack, it is also likely that Iran is acting indirectly through its loyal militias and allies. Such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the regime in Syria, Hashd Al Shaabi in Iraq or the Houti rebels in Yemen.
A revenge attack from Iran may come at any time, but it may also be delayed.
Bloody confrontationsIt was this kind of warfare that General Qassem Soleimani was an expert on. The question is how much the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Quds forces have weakened now that he is gone.
The tension between Iran and the United States has not been so high since the hostage crisis in Tehran in 1979.
Although none of the countries want war, one or more bloody confrontations could lead to a devastating major war.