By RFIPosted on 12-29-2019Changed on 12-29-2019 at 07:55

The modus operandi of the attack - not claimed - on Saturday morning in Mogadishu, which left at least 79 dead, makes one think of the Islamist Shebabs. The group retains its ability to harm the area in the face of a somewhat helpless Somali army as general elections are prepared.

According to researcher Matt Bryde, director of the Sahan Research think tank, only Shebabs have the capacity to carry out an attack of such magnitude - it's the deadliest in two years. This highlights the group's still intact nuisance power.

A car bomb exploded on the outskirts of the city , on a busy intersection occupied by a security post. Twenty students who went by bus to the university were killed in this attack, still unclaimed, which left at least 79 dead. It seems that the vehicle came from the southwest, from the region of the Lower Shabelle region, explains Matt Bryden. A region where the government is in principle very active and the army present. But in the past year, she has made very little progress on the ground, continues Matt Bryden. “ We can say that al-Shebab is still present in the region, that the group still retains the capacity to assemble large-scale bombs in this region. There is a lack of military progress, a lack of intelligence from the government side and they have made very little progress in increasing security in and around Mogadishu . ”

Upcoming elections augur a period of instability

Paradoxically, "the largest deployments of the Somali armed forces today are not against the Shebabs ". Somali armed forces are deployed in " central and southwestern regions, where they are trying to impose government control over regional governments in the various provinces of Somalia, " said Matt Bryden.

It seems that the main concern of the Somali government at the moment is not the fight against al-Shebab " but against the administrations which are supposed to be its allies in this war and in the reconstruction of the country. It seems that the government is concerned about the pursuit of power, more than the war against al-Shebab, " continues the researcher.

The parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled in a few months herald a period of “ instability, political intrigue, and it is in these moments that the security forces are weakest and that the opportunities for al-Shebab are becoming more and more important, ”concludes Matt Bryden.

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