"The process of determining the border dragged on": will Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan manage to resolve a long-standing territorial dispute

President of Kyrgyzstan Sooronbai Jeenbekov announced his readiness to swap territories with Tajikistan. This exchange will put an end to a protracted dispute with a neighboring country regarding the ownership of thousands of kilometers of border lands, the Kyrgyz leader believes.

“Our position is clear: we are ready to discuss, ready for an exchange. But it is necessary to decide on the basis of facts. Negotiations are moving forward, albeit in small steps, ”Jeenbekov said at a press conference in Bishkek on December 25, answering a question about relations with Tajikistan.

Which sites will be exchanged, he did not specify. However, the Kyrgyz president called the issue of delimiting the borders of the two countries “very complex” and “very delicate”. He emphasized that the process of settlement of territorial disputes in Dushanbe and Bishkek is not easy and far from complete. Therefore, Jeenbekov urged journalists not to escalate the situation and not give vent to emotions when covering topics related to the situation on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border.

Both countries have repeatedly tried to put an end to the issue of border territories. Since 2002, an interstate commission on delimitation and demarcation of the border of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan has been operating. But her work is progressing extremely slowly.

In 2016, Kyrgyz First Deputy Prime Minister Aaly Karashev announced that for all the years of negotiations, the parties had found a compromise regarding only 519.9 km of the disputed territory. At the time of the collapse of the USSR, 971 km of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border were not marked — there were more than 70 disputed sites.

In July of this year, Jeenbekov and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon at a meeting in the Kyrgyz city of Cholpon-Ata agreed to speed up the process of demarcation and delimitation of the border. It was decided to act on the principle of “from simple to complex”: first, look for a common language on issues where the positions of the parties coincide to the greatest extent, then move on to the most difficult issues.

Soviet heritage

Experts note that the territorial disputes of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan were a consequence of the particular administrative structure of the Soviet Union.

• Emomali Rahmon and Sooronbai Jeenbekov
• RIA News
• © Alexey Druzhinin

“In the USSR, the borders of the Union republics were cut on the basis of the interests of the national economy, and not of local residents. It so happened that a village inhabited, for example, by Tajiks was attributed to the Tajik SSR. But the meadow on which the locals grazed their cattle was not attributed to any republic, because the village is important for the national economy, and the meadow is not. While the USSR existed, such a situation did not bother local residents. Both the Kyrgyz and Tajiks were citizens of one state, and therefore were able to freely move throughout its territory. When Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan became independent, questions arose about who has the right to use what, ”Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the Institute of CIS Countries, explained in an interview with RT.

The lack of a clear border line between the two states now and then leads to incidents. This year, disputes between residents of neighboring territories of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have especially intensified. At a press conference, Jeenbekov admitted that every day he wonders what the situation is in the border regions of Batken oblast. This region of Kyrgyzstan borders with Tajikistan and it is precisely this region that accounts for the largest number of border incidents.

Despite the desire of both parties to continue negotiations on this issue, countries have different views on which line the border should go through. Territorial disputes arise in the Ferghana Valley region, where the borders of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan converge. Thus, Tajikistan offers to be guided by maps and documents of 1924-1927, while Kyrgyzstan offers to be guided by maps of 1958-1959 and 1989. In addition, between the two republics there is the problem of enclaves and exclaves.

Yuri Solozobov, director of international projects at the Russian National Strategy Institute, in a RT commentary drew attention to the fact that the problem of the lack of clear state borders is relevant for all states of the former Soviet Central Asia. They, with varying degrees of success, have been trying to solve it since 1991.

“Only Kazakhstan has completely completed the delimitation of its borders. However, it should be noted that this state is the economic leader of the region, there has always been a stable government. In Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the situation was different. Therefore, there the process of determining the border dragged on so much, ”Solozobov said.

He recalled that the power in Kyrgyzstan was changed several times by force, and Tajikistan survived a bloody civil war in the early nineties. In addition, delimitation of the border costs a lot of money. And Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are not rich states. They can not afford large-scale expenses.

External moderator

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan continue to actively cooperate both at the bilateral level and on the sidelines of international and regional organizations, such as the CIS, EurAsEC, CSTO, SCO. So, in 2004, an agreement on good neighborly and partnership relations was signed between the countries. According to the document, the parties agreed to cooperate in strengthening stability, tranquility and implementation of confidence-building measures in the Kyrgyz-Tajik border.

Sooronbai Jeenbekov said that Kyrgyzstan has already settled cross-border issues with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, the border with which has not been fully established until recently, which gives hope for a future resolution of the situation with Tajikistan.

However, it is possible that the authorities of the two states again will not be able to agree on the exchange of territories and delimitation of borders independently. In this case, analysts believe, external mediation is required.

• Kyrgyz in the pasture
• Reuters
• © Vladimir Pirogov

According to Solozobov, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) can take on this function. It includes Russia, India, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

“This organization, in fact, was created to delimit borders in Central Asia. But first of all, it concerned the Chinese border with the former Soviet republics. As a result, with the active participation of Russia and China, it was possible to complete the delimitation process of the former state border of the USSR. However, the borders of the former Soviet republics with each other remained on the conscience of local authorities, ”Solozobov said.

Zharikhin, in turn, believes that the SCO, most likely, will not be the SCO, but Russia.

“Our country has the closest ties with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Russia is trusted in both Dushanbe and Bishkek. So, if they need an intermediary, they will most likely turn to Moscow, ”he said.

Solozobov notes that Russia is interested in resolving the issue of the borders of Central Asian states. Indeed, in the event of instability in the region, Moscow can hardly afford to stay away. Uncertainty of borders is a strong destabilizing factor, constantly aggravating relations between Central Asian states, the expert notes.

“The problem is ripe, it has long existed. We must do everything so that it can be resolved peacefully and not lead to destabilization of the situation in the region. We have no other tool for political response to threats and challenges within the post-Soviet space, except for mediation and assistance in resolving disputes between the states of the former USSR, ”Solozobov concludes.