Escalation in Idlib: Russia and Turkey's deep differences

Adnan Al-Hussein - Northern Syria

Russian and Syrian regime forces continue their military attacks on the Idlib countryside, or what has become known as the "de-escalation zone," according to the literature of the Astana talks, which numbered 14.

The Russian shelling, accompanied by the advancement of the regime forces on the ground, resulted in dozens of casualties daily, and the displacement of more than 100,000 civilians within a few days.

Although the Turkish-Russian agreement stipulates that the two countries should be guarantors to keep the escalation in Idlib reduced, Russia has continued to work to progress and gradually grab the opposition's control areas, which increased pressure on Turkey and put its credibility as a guarantor at stake.

The Syrian regime forces - with air support and Russian special forces - took control of about 40 villages and farms in the eastern and southern countryside of Idlib.

The armed opposition did not succeed in stopping the advance of the Syrian regime forces due to the difference in military strength with Russia, which left most of Idlib countryside at risk of falling in favor of the regime and paved the way for a massive humanitarian catastrophe.

Russia is taking advantage of the agreements
Analysts and journalists believe that Russia used the agreements to impose a reality commensurate with its vision of the solution in Syria, contrary to what it says.

The writer and political analyst Ahmed Aba Zaid told Al-Jazeera Net that Russia is trying - without any doubt - to grab new areas from Idlib after its control of the northern countryside of Hama, and now intends to control areas in the southern and southeastern countryside of Idlib in the Ma'rat al-Numan-Saraqib-Gergnaz triangle.

"It does not appear that Russia prepared for a major attack on the entire Idlib, given the nature of the attacking force, but it appears that it has achieved results so far. In the absence of a Turkish reaction - which has not happened so far - the campaign will continue," Aba Zaid added.

He explained that "Russia's intention in Idlib is to move quickly, and any temporary truce is a prelude to new progress, so postponing the battle in Idlib does not mean that Russia has abandoned it."

Aba Zaid stressed that communication with Turkey has not actually worked since the beginning of the Astana track to stop the Russian attacks on any region, as is the case with the Sochi Agreement, which failed to stop the attacks on Idlib.

He believed that Turkey seems unable or does not naturally implement its role as a guarantor to stop the attacks on Idlib, especially as its second point is about to become besieged in the Sorman region in the southeastern Idlib countryside.

Endeavors to stop the attack
With the increase in the number of displaced people towards the Syrian-Turkish borders, the Turkish President and Turkish officials reiterated the necessity of stopping the attacks in Idlib and returning to the ceasefire agreement, which will be put on the agenda of the meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the coming days.

Turkey does not seem to have many options for a ceasefire, but it stresses the need to adhere to the agreements between Russia and Turkey.

Turkish journalist and political analyst Hamzah Tekin told Al Jazeera Net that Ankara is now communicating with the Russian side directly and intensively to stop the indiscriminate and brutal shelling by the Syrian regime and Russian aviation.

According to Tekin, the information received now from Ankara and from Moscow indicates that these operations will stop, pointing out that Turkey has sent a high-level delegation to Moscow to meet with Russian officials and stress the need to adhere to the agreements signed between the two parties to stop the attack in Idlib.

Takin asked about the absence of Arab and Islamic countries and the League of Arab States and said, "Why do these countries and institutions not communicate with the Russian side to pressure him and stop these massacres taking place in Idlib?"

Russian-Turkish relations
The recent escalation wave in Idlib places many questions about Turkish-Russian relations and their future in Syria.

Russian analysts and journalists - including a correspondent for the Russian newspaper "Novaya Gazeta" for Middle East affairs Wadih Al Hayek - believe that the prevailing opinion among Russian decision makers is that Turkey cannot be trusted, and that the current relations are nothing more than immediate interests.

Al-Hayek told Al-Jazeera Net that coordination between Turkey and Russia inside Syria is very little and almost non-existent, due to the fact that the Russians cannot forget Turkey's previous aid and support to Chechen fighters in their war against Russia, as he put it.

He pointed out that despite the economic relations between the two parties, it is completely different from the military coordination on the ground between the two parties, and Russia still believes that Turkey contributed to the flow of foreign fighters to Syria.