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Since last June, the seven million Hong Kongers defend their freedoms against Beijing. It all started last June with giant demonstrations against an extradition law. But today, protesters are asking for nothing less than democracy.
" Hong Kongers, resist!" This slogan has lost none of its force in six months of dispute. The 12,000 tear gas canisters fired, the approximately 5,800 arrests, the ransacked metro stations and the death of a young protester have certainly shaken the metropolis. But Hong Kong remains standing and united. Students and white-collar workers, parents and seniors refuse Beijing's growing stranglehold on the former British colony.
Jean-Philippe Béja, director of research emeritus at the CNRS, has as proof the human tide that took over the streets of the semi-autonomous region on December 8, to mark the anniversary of six months of contestation. " 800,000 people, this proves that the population remains fully mobilized ," says the sinologist. If executive head Carrie Lam and her peers in Beijing hoped people would disgust, it was a failure. Hong Kong people are determined to maintain their identity, their way of life and if possible improve their political system. "
Turning a deaf ear ended in " complete failure "
For many months, Carrie Lam bet on the silent majority who would sooner or later oppose the increasingly radical youth. In vain. The proof: last November 24, during the vote for district councils, voters offered a triumph to pro-democracy candidates. The opposition won the majority in 17 of the 18 district councils, inflicting a serious snub on the candidates supported by Beijing.
The strategy of turning a deaf ear to the demands of the street ended in " complete failure ", in the eyes of Sébastian Veg, sinologist and director of studies at the School of Advanced Studies in Social Sciences (EHESS). " This approach has only fueled climbing ," he notes. When the demonstrators demanded more democracy, we saw opposite a government less and less receptive to the demands of the street which in addition, did not hesitate to raise the level of police violence and refused to demand accountability from the police. There was a kind of spiral in the escalation . "
When, on September 4, Carrie Lam announced the withdrawal of the law that raised fears of the extradition of dissidents to China to be tried, it was already too late. Meanwhile, the protesters have expanded their demands. They now demand the release and amnesty of those arrested, an investigation into police violence, the withdrawal of the qualifier " rioters " and the election by universal suffrage of the chief executive of Hong Kong and the deputies to the Council legislative.
" The law against wearing a mask was a provocation "
But with the support of Beijing, the chief executive does not let go. Worse, Carrie Lam stirs up tensions when she prohibits demonstrators in October from wearing a mask. Supposed to defuse the crisis, this law has the opposite effect. " The law against the wearing of masks was a real provocation which led to serious violence , analyzes Jean-Philippe Béja. It was from this moment that we started to burn the pro-Chinese stores and to vandalize the metros. But the researcher insisted : " With very few exceptions, the violence of the demonstrators was much lower than that of the police. "
On November 18, the anti-mask law was deemed unconstitutional by the High Court. A victory in the eyes of the pro-democracy movement which does not disarm. " Beijing and the Hong Kong government have tried to take advantage of the increase in violence to divide the movement, but they have failed, " notes Jean-Pierre Cabestan. The head of the department of international studies at the Baptist University of Hong Kong and author of the book Tomorrow China, democracy or dictatorship? (Gallimard, 2018) sees no weakening of the movement on the horizon: “ The problem is that there is not the slightest dialogue. "
" There will be very heavy sentences for riots "
More than a thousand protesters charged with acts of violence are awaiting trial today. The first hearings are expected to open next March. " There will be very heavy penalties for riots, " fears researcher Sébastian Veg who does not rule out a new rise in fever: " This can cause major manifestations. "
The risk of seeing the Chinese army put an end to the democratic aspirations of the Hong Kongers seems to him low, however. “ Beijing wants to avoid this scenario at all costs. Besides, nothing proves that the People's Liberation Army is more effective than the Hong Kong police in overcoming the dispute . Especially since the demonstrators, without a real leader, adopted this operating mode to remain elusive: " be water ", " be like water ".