President Trump impeachment prosecution American public opinion and experts see this December 19th 6:04
Discussions by the ruling and opposition members began at a plenary session of the House of Representatives over a resolution for prosecution against President Trump's ban on the allegation of Ukrainian U.S.A. The resolution will be passed by the majority of opposition parties and Democrats who hold the majority of the House of Representatives on the morning of 19th Japan time, and President Trump is expected to be imprisoned. I summarized American public opinion and analysis of three experts.
Public opinion polls favor and oppose
American public opinion is broken about President Trump's impeachment.
The average value of various polls as of 17th of this month compiled by the US political information site "Real Clear Politics" is 46.9% for the impeachment and 47.6% for the opposition.
By democratic political party, Democratic supporters are 84% for “agreement”, 10.5% for “opposite”, 8.7% for “Respondent”, 87.7% for “opposite” It is largely divided.
Last month, the Democratic Party called for 12 government officials and others in a public hearing on television broadcast across the United States, aiming to expand support for impeachment by giving President Trump a testimony, but the trend of pros and cons has changed since then Is not ...
As of 16th of this month, President Trump ’s approval rate is 44% for “I support” and 53% for “I don't support”, and the Democratic Party has embarked on an impeachment survey, and the approval rate will remain below 40% after September. Rather, it reflects the current state of fragmentation in American society.
Conservative think tanks
Thomas Zipping, a conservative think tank “Heritage Foundation” who is familiar with American politics and impeachment, said in an NHK interview that the Democratic Party decided to prosecute impeachment. “It ’s to do political damage to President Trump, who is re-elected.”
In addition, "There is also the aim of appealing to the Democratic Party's support base to collect funds for the next year's presidential election and to stand against President Trump," the background is political speculation in anticipation of next year's presidential election Pointed out.
On top of that, “It would be impossible for President Trump to be guilty in the impeachment trial, and that would not be possible. That's not the case, but the worst scenario for President Trump is that the Republicans are guilty of guilty. By going out, it would be very shocking for the Republican Party, ”he pointed out.
And for next year's presidential election, as to whether the series of impeachment processes will be politically positive for either Trump or the Democratic party, “President Trump is a very unconventional president and expects what will happen. It ’s very difficult to do. ”
As for how Americans perceive President Trump's impeachment prosecution, “People who support President Trump disagree, those who disagree with President support it. After all, for most citizens,“ How do you think of impeachment? ”Is the same as“ How do you think about President Trump? ”And expressed the view that the evaluation of impeachment depends on whether you support President Trump.
Democratic Laboratories "How to influence the ruling and opposition party states"
Amy Dassi, director of the American Institute for Policy and Politics, who served as the CEO of the Democratic National Committee, said, “The country has been polarized and the president's supporters stress that he is not treated fairly. And those who are critical of the president will stress that he is not the right person for this job, '' he said, analyzing the impeachment prosecution that President Trump's strong support base will not be shaken immediately. It is.
On top of that, about the impact on the presidential election in 2020 next year, “There is almost one year until the election, and various things can happen until the election in November next year. He expressed his view that the extent of the impact is unclear at this time.
Mr. Dessie said, “Especially, how the voters will perceive and affect the impeachment in states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. `` We have to expand our support but we have not yet seen what will happen, '' said the trumping movement in the state that President Trump won in the last election and the ruling and opposition party's support rate is competitive. He showed the recognition that how it affects the layer is key.
Sophia University Professor
Prof. Kazuhiro Maejima from Sophia University, who specializes in contemporary American politics, said, It can be said that the Republican Party and the Democratic Party are polarized without compromising. ”He pointed out that the division of the American people has never been deeper since the Civil War.
On the other hand, regarding the influence on the presidential election, “I can't read the situation, but it can be positive for both Republicans and Democrats. It is an opportunity for the Democrats to put together supporters who seek president's dismissal, “It ’s an opportunity to unite if we have to protect the president,” he says, analyzing the positive aspects of both republication and democracy, as bipolarization progresses.
On the other hand, the influence of President Trump on the impeachment on Japan is as follows: “If the US domestic stagnation stagnate, it is the pattern of President Trump that has been trying to do something about diplomacy. There is a possibility that pressure will be strengthened by such problems, ”he said. If the problem persists, he indicated that his diplomatic relations with Japan could be affected.