Brussels (AFP)

From January 31, the date of the Brexit, a new front will open for Europeans, that of the discussions, which are already announced complex, for a broad trade agreement with the United Kingdom.

With the great victory of Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the legislative elections, Brussels expects the United Kingdom, as he promised, to leave the EU at the end of January.

Will London be able to quickly conclude a comprehensive agreement to preserve its trade with the continent or forced to seek an extension of the post-Brexit transition period? State of play before these negotiations.

- What calendar? -

Johnson says he will conclude a new trade deal with the EU by the end of the post-Brexit transition period, ie by 31 December 2020, and will not ask for extra time in Brussels.

But experts agree that a comprehensive trade deal worthy of a country to become the closest partner to the EU will require much more time.

As an example, between the beginning of the discussions and the entry into force of the agreement, it took eight and a half years for the EU with Canada, six and a half years with Japan, nine years with Singapore. .

"The conclusion of a trade agreement at the end of 2020 is extremely ambitious, but it will not be achieved if we do not try," said Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar.

The UK government has until July 1 to request a postponement of the transition period beyond the end of 2020. At that date, it can only submit one single application for one or two more years.

If the agreement were to be negotiated quickly, without extension, its ambition would be considerably limited, explains to AFP Fabian Zuleeg, chief economist at the European Policy Center.

- What to negotiate in such a short time?

To sign an agreement by the end of 2020, negotiators will have to show enough progress in about six months to allow time for translation, legal review, and ratification.

According to Zuleeg, a "very basic" agreement may be possible in this period of time. But the UK's bargaining power "on sensitive issues like services, fishing or Gibraltar" would then be "very limited".

An agreement on a reduction of customs duties is however possible in this period.

- A risk of "no deal"? -

If Boris Johnson refuses to extend the period of negotiations, the threat of a Brexit without a deal (or "no deal") will be raised again, which means that the UK may severely break its trade ties with Europe , upsetting its economy.

The starting point for the talks "is the absence of agreement and the status of third country," says Zuleeg.

As a third country, the United Kingdom would immediately regain limited commercial conditions, set by the World Trade Organization.

The tariffs on key products would be high, ruining, for example, the trade patterns put in place for British production of cars and other industrial goods that rely on foreign parts.

Ports of Entry in the United Kingdom would be engorged by customs controls.

- What is a warrant? -

According to the draft conclusions of the European summit on Friday, consulted by AFP, European leaders will ask the Commission to prepare a negotiating mandate as soon as possible.

This mandate, which will define the European vision of the future trade agreement and draw red lines, must be approved by all 27 member states.

Brussels, which is responsible for European trade policy, will then be able to negotiate on their behalf.

But opinions differ for the moment between the Member States, France and Ireland are for example very vigilant on the agricultural question.

© 2019 AFP