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The campaign for early elections on December 12 ends Wednesday. For this final day, the different parties will try to hammer their main messages to try to convince the undecided.
The advance of the Tories has shrunk, according to the last big survey YouGov. The latter, however, provides for the victory of the party of Boris Johnson with a majority of 28 seats to 339 deputies against 231 Labor Jeremy Corbyn .
In the end, it was a campaign like the winter season: morose, summarizes our correspondent in London, Muriel Delcroix . The parties will not have really shone either in substance or in form. The three main parties, Conservative, Labor and Liberal Democrats, have been systematically overbidding, promising excessive budget spending, even unrealistic.
A last-minute slippage among the Tories
On the conservative side, Boris Johnson's advisors have been trying to get him to run a low-profile, tightly controlled campaign to avoid the slightest blunder and keep the Tories advance in the polls. A strategy focused on Brexit, and that worked almost without a hitch. Until Monday, December 9, when the Prime Minister refused to look at the photo a journalist showed him on his cell phone: that of a four-year-old boy lying on the floor in a hospital corridor waiting for emergency care.
Boris Johnson then apologized, but this reaction, which revealed a complete lack of empathy, shocked the British. The conservative leader has been widely criticized by his political opponents, especially the Labor Party who made the NHS, the public health system on the brink of rupture after years of underinvestment, their central campaign theme.
Corbyn has no chance of winning, Labor MP says
Labor is also in an embarrassing position. This Tuesday, the Labor MP Jonathan Ashworth, in charge of health issues, had to go around the media to capitalize on the blunder of Boris Johnson. Instead, he was forced to defend his devastating remarks on his own leader. In a telephone conversation with a Conservative friend, who hastened to make her run away, the member said that his party has no chance of winning. According to him, voters can not stand Jeremy Corbyn and think that Labor is blocking Brexit.
These last-minute skids are not going to fix the general atmosphere, while voters are showing signs of intense weariness. They do not trust Boris Johnson, whom they consider dishonest, and say they fear Jeremy Corbyn for his extreme left positions. Liberal Democratic leader Jo Swinson led an unconvincing campaign that did not allow her party to take off in the polls. Only the Scottish SNP, anti-Brexit, has managed to succeed. It remains extremely powerful, which will make it determinant in case of Parliament suspended without a majority.
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Scottish SNP could weigh heavily in the balance
With a large mug of steaming tea at hand on a table full of leaflets and envelopes, Tommy Sheppard placed an electric heater on her thighs. He has just campaigned in the pouring rain. Despite the bad weather, this SNP MP candidate in Edinburgh, spares no effort. " This election will determine whether the UK is pursuing the Brexit vote," he told our special correspondent Anastasia Becchio . This is very important for us because the Scots did not vote for Brexit. We want to keep our European identity. And we have a chance to stop him. "
The riding of Tommy Sheppard, Edinburgh East, voted against Brexit at 72%. Two years earlier, a majority had spoken against an independent Scotland. But with the years of uncertainty around Brexit, things could change. At least that's what Tommy Sheppard retains from door-to-door. " We have identified a significant number of former Labor Party voters. When asked if Scotland should become an independent country, many say "yes" or "I do not know". That means they think about it! Previously, these people would have said, "No, Scotland must stay in the UK". "
A good SNP score on Thursday would boost the independence issue, said Emile Chabal of the University of Edinburgh. " The results of this election can really count because if the SNP wins, and it wins again in the elections for the Scottish Parliament, we can see emerging a position around independence. The SNP now holds 35 of the 59 seats in Scotland.
Towards a tactical vote?
In the rest of the UK, pro-Europeans are calling for a tactical vote against the Brexiters. This is to vote in favor of the anti-Brexit candidate who has the best chance of winning the election against the Conservative candidate. Because it is a one-round election: locally, the one with the most votes wins the seat of deputy, even if he does not have the majority. A system that favors big parties.
In response, the small parties organized themselves. This is what Jo Cox explains at the microphone of our special correspondent Béatrice Leveillé . Liberal-Democratic candidate in Bristol in 2017, he has this time withdrawn in favor of a candidate ecologist. " We want to stop Brexit. So we made an agreement with the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru [Welsh Nationalist Party, Ed], and the Greens Party. Here, the Liberal Democrats have withdrawn for the Greens, which will allow us to have more anti-Brexit MPs in Parliament. "
Sites like tactical.vote even tell voters which candidate has the best chance of winning against the conservatives.
Mark Huband is the Labor Party candidate, the main opposition party in the North East Sommerset constituency, against Conservative MP Jacob Tes Mogg. He does not believe that an alliance or a tactical vote can win in his riding. " We'll see the tactics elsewhere in England, but I think it will be minimal here. I think it's still a competition between Conservatives and Labor. We are very optimistic. "
It will be necessary to wait until the closing of the polls this Thursday at 22h, local time, to know if the British voted tactically to counter the announced victory of the conservatives and the exit of their country from the European Union.
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