Analysis: "Thunberg's message is becoming increasingly populist"

The global climate negotiations are a political minefield. Greta Thunberg deliberately chose to step right into it. Recently, she has begun to emphasize the right of developing countries to continued growth in order to raise the standard of living of those living in poverty. The rich world, on the other hand, had to reduce its emissions at a much faster rate, was her message. This is also the very pain point of global climate change. No one denies the right of poor countries to higher growth or that rich countries have a greater responsibility. But how to do it with some kind of fair balance, the world's countries have been negotiating for 27 years.

India is soon the world's fifth largest economy and is the third largest greenhouse gas emitter. Many believe that India must therefore take a far greater responsibility in reducing its emissions, which on the contrary, is increasing year after year. But Greta Thunberg's rhetoric coincides with India's defense that they must lift 14 million Indians out of absolute poverty and that this must be done with the energy source that is the cheapest and most accessible coal power. Although India is becoming one of the richest countries in the world, the average income of an Indian is as low as in sub-Saharan Africa.

Greta warned in his speech to create moral panic. But not even the EU, where the European Commission will today present a green roadmap for how the Union should be carbon neutral to 2050, received praise. On the contrary, she accused countries and regions that now set a date to get rid of their dependence on oil and coal for "false leadership". The reason for this is neither Sweden's nor the EU's plans to eliminate fossil dependence include shipping or aviation. She also pointed out that rich countries in the west have exported their carbon dioxide emissions to poor countries by holding the large manufacturing factories, products that are then shipped to rich countries in the west.

Giving some kind of recognition to the leadership the EU is now showing in the climate field, at a time when the US checked out of global climate cooperation, had given some hope. Greta Thunberg said that "the people" are the only ones who hope, but the people are not a homogeneous group that stands united against the politicians, then the climate issue would be resolved. In her talk about the people against the governing, she sounds rather like a populist leftist politician.

The sooner her criticism became of the lack of political leadership in the world, the more intense the delegates applauded on the spot. The contrast was great from last year's global climate summit in Katowice. Then she got a talk time late at night and the hall was almost empty when it was Greta Thunberg's turn to speak.

The politicians in place in Madrid are environment ministers, they hardly needed to be convinced by her message about how urgent it is to take scientists' increasingly insistent warnings seriously. But in a government, it is not the words of the environment minister that weigh most. In the coming year, the economic conflict picture will be sharpened between those defending continued subsidies and investments in oil and coal power. It is an irony that Greta Thunberg's speech was held on the same day that Saudi Arabia's state oil company Aramco was listed, valued at SEK 16,000 billion, three times Sweden's GDP, a company that alone accounts for 4 percent of global carbon emissions.

Greta Thunberg is a barometer of young people's growing anxiety over the climate crisis. The politicians who want to protect democracy and the confidence of young voters in politics are wise to listen. But Greta Thunberg's passion cannot disrupt climate policy's most basic truths; rich countries can afford to protect themselves from the consequences of the climate crisis. Poor countries cannot afford to give up economic growth. Therefore, the Madrid Summit is an impassioned bureaucratic meeting of rules and clauses, rather than a vigorous negotiation of how quickly countries can envisage switching to renewable energy sources.