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Emmanuel Macron meets Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Angela Merkel at the Elysee Palace this Monday, December 9th. A summit to revive the peace process in eastern Ukraine, where the war has already made 13,300 dead. This is the first meeting in this so-called "Normandy" format since 2016.
It is on him that most eyes will be riveted on Monday at the Elysee: Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a former actor without political experience became president of Ukraine in May . Elected, among others, on the promise to end the war in Donbass, he is preparing to meet for the first time Vladimir Putin, who has recently portrayed him as " sincere " and " sympathetic ".
The two leaders, if they have never seen each other before, have had several opportunities to talk on the phone. Between Moscow and Kiev , some signs of relaxation have appeared in recent months. At the beginning of September, the two countries carried out an important exchange of prisoners, among which the very symbolic figure of the Ukrainian filmmaker Oleg Sentsov.
Last month, in Donbass, the belligerents completed the withdrawal of their troops from three key sectors of the front line. Finally, three weeks ago, Russia returned to Ukraine three military ships seized a year earlier off the coast of Crimea. A gesture, which according to Emmanuel Macron " helps to build confidence ".
For Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, a specialist in Russian domestic and foreign policy, director of the Russia / New Independent States Center (NIS) of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), this climate of relative relaxation is also " to be linked to the context of President Macron's overtures to Russia. The latter seeks to respond by taking a few steps forward .
Beyond their symbolic value, these gestures also allow the Ukrainian president " to display his own success internally ," says the researcher. On the Elysee side, we insist on the Franco-German reengagement on this issue and on " the special commitment of President Zelenskiy to reach out, to be heard by the people of Donbass ."
"First victory"
High demand for such a meeting with his French, German and Russian counterparts, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who has built all his campaign on the promise to end the war, believes that the only fact that she can stand is already in self a " first victory ". It remains to be seen whether this new diplomatic rendezvous will lead to concrete progress.
Oleksiy Haran, a professor at the University of Kyiv-Mohyla, recalls that in parallel with the disengagement in three points of the front line, described by the Elysee as "a major advance on the ground ", the weapons continue to kill in Donbass, although the degree of violence has dropped significantly. " Volodymyr Zelenskiy sincerely wants peace, " he says.
" But to the extent that he lacks experience, he has a rather naive approach," says Oleksiy Haran . He tells himself that he will sit around a table with the other parties and agree. He comes from the business world, he has commercial experience in the talks, but international relations and security issues are completely different things . "
Minsk agreements
" The rhetoric of the Kremlin is evasive, " said Olena Snihyr, a foreign policy expert at the National Institute of Strategic Studies in Kiev. " President Zelenskiy has said it publicly : we do not know if the Kremlin really wants to end this war. "
Konstantin Kalatchev, head of the Moscow-based Political Expertise Group, quoted AFP as saying, " Putin does not have an interest in getting this conflict to worsen, but he wants any settlement to take place according to his conditions. him . Especially since this conflict is starting to cost Russia, which holds the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk under perfusion.
"Russia's position is extremely clear and unchangeable, " says Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean. It's about " filling the Minsk agreements to the letter ". Last month, at the announcement of the meeting of Monday at the Elysee, Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs had said he hoped that Paris would "do its utmost to remove any ambiguity and that the summit confirms the intangibility and the absence of an alternative to the application of the Minsk agreements ", concluded in February 2015.
Ukrainians, conversely, " know that the Minsk agreements are not in their favor. They try to interpret them in a different way and do not agree with the order of execution of the various points of the text, "analyzes Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean.
Elected in April, Volodymyr Zelenskiy has from the beginning shown his willingness to dialogue with Moscow. But " if the change of power in Kiev is perceived by the Kremlin as an opportunity, his expectations vis-à-vis the presidency of Volodymyr Zelensky conflict with its red lines, " warns Ioulia Shukan, lecturer in Slavic studies at the University of Paris Nanterre and researcher at the Institute of Social Sciences of Politics.
Local elections
The 13-point peace agreements provide for a cease-fire, a withdrawal of heavy weapons and foreign fighters, elections throughout the Donbass territory, following which Kyiv will be able to regain control of its borders. is with Russia. But for Ukraine, the precondition for a vote is the control of its borders, the disarmament of the rebels and the departure of the Russians supporting them.
" The Ukrainian side " continues Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, " insists on security issues and believes that elections can not be organized in a territory that is controlled by Russian mercenaries without having control of the Russian-Ukrainian border, without to be sure that the Ukrainian media and the Ukrainian political forces will be able to participate in the elections in this region. It is on this issue that discussions are likely to stumble . "
This request, raised by President Zelenskiy in an interview given to several European newspapers ahead of this meeting, will no doubt be discussed at the Elysee. " It has its legitimacy and its relevance ", it is emphasized in Paris, while insisting that the Minsk agreements are very clear on this point.
Another worry in Kiev: the Russian and Ukrainian leaders could see each other for the first time. " Our president has no experience and he is not even a politician, " worries Olena Snihyr, who hopes that the Ukrainian president will not be " fooled " and will not grant too much concessions.
Ukrainian ambitions lowered ?
Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean also notes that there is " an imbalance, an asymmetry between the two leaders, between their political experience, their ability to put pressure on each other ". But there is also, according to the expert " a guardrail " for Volodymyr Zelenskiy, " it is his public opinion ".
Because if the Ukrainians want to end the war, they are not ready to pay any price, warns Oleksiy Haran, also research director at the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, which has conducted investigations into the issue. " When, for example, Ukrainians are asked whether they agree with a total amnesty for combatants, the Ukrainians answer : no, even though this point is included in the Minsk agreements ".
Volodymyr Zelenskiy will undoubtedly have to take into account the red lines of her public opinion, who is quick to go out into the streets to protest, as she has done several times in recent weeks to denounce the President's policy of some people as a " capitulation ". ".
Oleksiy Haran fears, too, that Volodymyr Zelenskiy is forced to reconsider his ambitions downward. " Publicly, he says that elections in these territories can only take place when security is guaranteed, when the illegal militias are gone, and this is exactly what the opposition, the experts, the public opinion wants. But the question is, what will happen in Paris? This is the real question. "