By 2035, the volume of traffic along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will increase by almost eight times, reaching 160 million tons. Such data were cited by Alexander Krutikov, Deputy Minister for Development of the Far East and the Arctic.
“Taking into account the decisions made this year, I have no doubt in reaching the volume of 80 million tons in 2024. Moreover, by 2030 this volume can increase to 120 million tons, and by 2035 - up to 160 million tons, ”Krutikov said, speaking at the plenary meeting of the Arctic: Present and Future Forum, which is being held in St. Petersburg these days. Petersburg.
In 2018, this indicator amounted to 19.7 million tons.
The analytical center under the government of the Russian Federation shares the optimism of the deputy minister. According to the organization’s forecast, this year the volume of transportation in the Arctic will be 29.5 million tons, in 2024 the NSR cargo turnover will be 88.2 million tons, and in 2030 it will exceed 134 million tons. These figures are given in the center’s presentation at the forum in St. Petersburg.
The main growth driver is the active development of the region’s mineral resources base. First of all, we are talking about the project of PJSC Novatek in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area to liquefy natural gas (Yamal-LNG). According to the results of 2019, the share of this company in the total volume of transportations of the Northern Sea Route will be about 65% (19 million tons from the projected 29.5 million tons).
- Plant for the production of liquefied natural gas "Yamal LNG"
- RIA News
- © Ekaterina Shtukina
In addition to liquefied natural gas, products from Norilsk Nickel, Gazpromneft and coal companies are transported through the Arctic. A relatively small volume of transportation is carried out within the framework of transit agreements and the Northern delivery - providing the territories of the Far North, Siberia, the Far East and the European part of Russia with vital goods. The main hubs of the NSR are Sabetta, Dixon and Dudinka. In the second half of the 2020s, this list will be replenished by Pevek.
The Northern Sea Route is a transport artery that runs along the Arctic coast of the Russian Federation. Currently, the NSR administration provides navigation in the water area from Cape Dezhnev in the east to the Novaya Zemlya archipelago in the west. The property fund of the Northern Sea Route is managed by the Rosatom Corporation, and the Ministry of Transport performs legal regulation and oversight functions.
As the director of the Arctic direction at the Far East Agency for Attracting Investments and Export Support Dmitry Fishkin explained at the forum, in Russia ports of the Kamchatka Territory, Murmansk and Arkhangelsk Regions are usually classified as NSR. However, from a formal point of view, this is not very correct. According to him, this domestic highway is more appropriate to call the Northern Sea Transport Corridor.
“Accelerated Development”
The theme of the Northern Sea Route will occupy a central place in the new development strategy of the Russian Arctic until 2035 (the current one is designed for the period until 2020). According to the expert of the Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation Yuri Elizariev, the draft document has already been agreed. At the forum, he presented his main points.
The Elizariev’s report states that the Arctic will be assigned the status of “an integral historical part of the Russian Federation”. It is planned to create a competitive international latitudinal transport corridor in the region, which will be able to meet the needs of industrial raw materials companies and foreign partners of the Russian Federation.
The implementation of public policy as part of the strategy is divided into three time periods. At the first stage (until 2024), the Russian government intends to support the "accelerated development of production, processing and transportation of raw materials" from the ports of the Kara Sea (Sabetta, Dudinka and Dikson) in the western direction of the NSR in a year-round mode. To this end, funds will be invested in updating the icebreaker fleet and modernizing the port infrastructure.
At the second stage (until 2030), the state plans to provide year-round navigation throughout the NSR. During the third stage (until 2035), an “international latitudinal transport corridor” should be created, which will be able to provide logistics services to Russian and foreign customers year-round, the Elizariev report says.
According to Alexander Krutikov, who also spoke at the forum about certain aspects of the new strategy until 2035, 350 billion rubles will be required to implement the tasks set in the document. This money will significantly improve the transport and social infrastructure of the Arctic, as well as create about 200 thousand jobs.
At the same time, he admitted that currently it is impossible to find 350 billion rubles in the state treasury. In this regard, the government is working on various mechanisms to attract private investment. In addition, proposals are being considered to introduce tax incentives for regions and companies that have entered the Arctic market.
- Seaport of Sabetta
- RIA News
- © Sergey Mamontov
"Promising for our country"
As the forum participants emphasized, the implementation of ambitious plans in the Arctic is impossible without the development of an icebreaking fleet and, above all, its atomic component, which is capable of piloting caravans in virtually any ice conditions. Currently, the Baltic Plant (St. Petersburg) is building three nuclear-powered ships of project 22220.
The lead ship “Arktika” will be launched for testing on December 12, and in 2020 it should be delivered to the customer (FSUE Atomflot). This was told at the forum by the chairman of the St. Petersburg Arctic Affairs Committee German Shirokov. He said that now the ship is 93% ready. According to him, the fourth and fifth icebreakers of project 22220 can be laid down in August 2020.
In the context of the development of the Northern Sea Route, Shirokov has high hopes for the nuclear-powered icebreaker of project 10510 Leader, developed by the St. Petersburg Central Design Bureau Iceberg. This ship will be able to break into four-meter ice, leading a sea caravan with ships carrying cargo weighing over 100 thousand tons. Another advantage of the Leader is the provision of the necessary “commercial speed” for tankers, which is 10-12 knots (18-22 km / h) in the cold season.
The ship of the project 10510 will become the most powerful nuclear-powered ship in the world (120 MW against 60 MW of the project 22220). Its displacement will be 71.2 thousand tons, length - 209 m, width - 47.7 m. Despite its gigantic dimensions, a promising domestic icebreaker will also be able to go into the mouths of large rivers.
To date, the government has decided to build the lead ship of project 10510. The work will be carried out at the Baltic Shipyard and at the new Russian shipyard Zvezda in Bolshoy Kamen (Primorsky Territory). The total cost is estimated at 70 billion rubles. Half of this amount will be allocated by the state, the rest by mining companies. In total, three Leaders must be built.
- Model of the icebreaker of project 10510 "Leader"
- © Central Design Bureau “Iceberg”
Russia's long-term plans are to adapt the Northern Sea Route to international transit. Such measures, as follows from the report of the Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation, will be undertaken from 2036.
According to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) consulting company, using the NSR in the summer will allow customers to save up to 20% of transportation costs. To carry out calculations for a conditional route, analysts took the road from Shanghai to Rotterdam, Pavel Shelekhov, senior manager of the practice of consulting services in the field of capital construction, infrastructure and borrowing from PwC, specified on the forum.
The company's findings indicate that in the future, the NSR may well become a competitor to the Southern Sea Route (ASM) from Asia to Europe. The Russian Arctic artery is shorter (8 thousand km versus 10.5 thousand km) and comparable in average delivery time (about four weeks), taking into account winter navigation problems.
In a conversation with RT, Oleg Alexandrov, associate professor of the Department of International Relations and Foreign Policy of Russia at MGIMO, noted that the competitive advantages of the Northern Sea Route will increase as infrastructure develops in the Russian Arctic and “fairly rapid” melting of Arctic glaciers as a result of global warming.
“We can agree with the assessment of PwC. Transit along the Northern Sea Route is very promising for our country. However, in order for this artery to develop more dynamically, it is necessary to strengthen the role of the state in all projects. It is equally important to find a common language with China, which insists on the free passage of vessels through the NSR (the Russian Federation issues domestic and foreign companies permission to navigate since 2013. - RT ), ”says Alexandrov.
A similar point of view is shared by the head of the department of political science and sociology of the Russian University of Economics. Plekhanova Andrey Koshkin. In an interview with RT, he said that Moscow has enough resources to implement the ambitious tasks of developing the NSR with an effective public-private partnership and the development of international cooperation.
“Over the past years, Russia has done a lot to improve the infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route, although in the near future several times more needs to be done. Political will for this, as far as I can tell, is. In addition, interest in this project from business and foreign countries is very large, ”summed up Koshkin.