The dollar in a thousand pounds .. An unprecedented collapse of the Syrian currency

Adnan Hussein - Northern Syria

"The mistake of Shater in dollars .. Who watched the dollar died are .. If the dollar continues to rise so quickly will arrive before the year 2020 .. Today I was with the doctor and told me that my health is like the lira."

These comic strips became the most popular conversation among Syrians after the unprecedented collapse of the Syrian pound against the dollar and foreign currencies, amid the deterioration of the overall economic situation in Syria nine years after the beginning of anti-Syrian protests.

In one week, the exchange rate of the Syrian pound against the dollar has doubled, with the dollar equaling 450 to 500 pounds, and today rising to about one thousand pounds on the black market, which was astonishment for the Syrian citizen, who is the biggest loser in all cases.

Lack of circulation
In the markets of Aleppo city, exchange and drafting shops were closed two days ago waiting for what will become of the lira if they stop working and prefer to buy in dollars, as they refused to deliver remittances coming from abroad as a result of the collapse of the lira, which caused a deficit in the city markets with a very large rise in Prices are even doubled.

Abu Ahmed Malik told Al-Jazeera Net, that as the currency pumped into the market, the dollar began to rise. "Of course we will be hurt by this. We have money in lira. Now it is a double loss. Even selling the dollar is another loss for us." Close local and wait. "

"It depends not on the gold market or discharge, but this will reflect on the lives of the citizen, who suffers mainly from the deteriorating economic situation. Yesterday the prices of vegetables and food rose twice, and we do not know what will happen."

The streets of commercial markets in Damascus, Aleppo and other cities appeared almost empty due to the high exchange rate of the dollar against the lira, and the country appeared in shock as a result, according to local sources of the island Net.

Unexpected collapses
Analysts and economists agree that the current collapse of the Syrian pound is unpredictable and surprising, and they believe that the reasons for this are related to speculation and profit-taking and protests in neighboring countries, especially Lebanon, the main nerve of the Syrian regime's economy.

Economist Samir Tawil says that what is happening in Syria is a direct reflection and an inevitable result of the Lebanese economic crisis and the collapse of the Lebanese economy, which was a direct cause of the protests in Lebanon.

Tawil adds that since 2015, after the Syrian Central Bank consumed the entire monetary reserve estimated at $ 18 billion, the Syrian regime has resorted to the Iranian credit line to secure imports and Lebanese banks, where the latter played the role of the financial artery of the Syrian regime and was the gate to import.

Direct causes
Samir Tawil confirms that the Central Bank has lost all intervention tools and no longer has reserves of foreign exchange and gold, and has exhausted all its tools, especially printing currency without balance as it did in previous years, and transfer money in Lebanese banks outside Lebanon.

He pointed out that the loss of the lira against the dollar daily rose from 3% to 10%, and that an important point of the reasons for the collapse of the lira is the absence of a political solution by disrupting the work of the constitutional committee, which directly affected the Syrian economy, in addition to the continuation of European and US sanctions on the regime Which put additional pressure on the dollar generation process.

For his part, the director of the "Economic Action-Syria" group, Dr. Osama Qazi, told Al-Jazeera Net that "the hellish machine of inflation reaps the wealth of Syrians as the military machine has taken their lives. Agriculture, industry and trade, almost paralysis of the oil and tourism sector, as well as the unsafe environment. "

"Perhaps the stifling economic situation in Lebanon accelerated the collapse of the currency, which pressured Syrian traders to buy hard currency from the black market in Syria after the Central Bank of Lebanon prevented them from their money deposited in Lebanese banks."

He stresses that the pressure on the Syrian pound has intensified with the popular turmoil and instability in Iraq and Iran because they were the two countries that supported Syria and are now in a situation where it is difficult to stand by the Syrian regime in its plight, not by loans or credit lines.

If the regime's allies continue to boil for another month, the next fall of the lira could be even more rapid, especially since the Syrian central bank has decided to refrain from intervening forced by the enormous pressure on its hard currency and the catastrophic weakness of the rest of the Syrian economy.

Who benefits?
Analysts and observers agree that the main losers of the dollar's rise against the lira are citizens directly, while the owners of capital, warlords and big traders are the beneficiaries of this situation.

This is confirmed by economic analyst Younis Khalil in his talk to Al Jazeera Net, and draws to the important thing - based on information from within the Central Bank and within the system - that the latter is preparing for a major blow to speculation by pumping a foreign currency into the market, but will not contribute to the re-price Exchange the lira to what it was (ie 500 lira to the dollar), but to the price of between 700 and 750 lira, through financial support in hard currency obtained from various parties, including the "Syrian Democratic Forces" and "HTS", in the process of barter and agreement Economic with Lebanon in order to release a huge amount of hard currency.