Time of Uncertainty: What to Expect from a NATO Summit in London

On Tuesday, December 3, a two-day NATO summit opens in London. The meeting of the heads of state and government of the countries participating in the North Atlantic Alliance will be held in the year of the 70th anniversary of the military bloc. On the evening of December 3, guests of the British capital will receive a gala reception at Buckingham Palace.

Challenges and Threats

As NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted on the eve of the summit, at the talks in London, the alliance leaders should recognize space as a new operational area - along with land, sea, air and cyberspace. Earlier this decision was made by the foreign ministers of countries - members of the organization.

According to Stoltenberg, the agenda of the meeting will also include discussion of the mission in Afghanistan in the context of negotiations between the US and the Taliban *, increasing the combat readiness of the alliance forces, the fight against terrorism, the situation in Ukraine and the implementation of the Minsk agreements. The Secretary General also said that the relations of the bloc with Russia and China and the future of the arms control system will be discussed.

According to the American media, citing representatives of the Trump administration, the focus of attention at the London summit will be the confrontation between Moscow and Beijing.

“The challenges that NATO must somehow cope with remain relevant - above all, China,” said an unnamed White House spokesman quoted by CNBC. - Russia systematically neglects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its neighbors. At the summit of leaders, they will certainly discuss this. ”

Jens Stoltenberg spoke about Russia as one of the main threats to NATO in an interview with France 24 on the eve of the summit, among other things accusing Moscow of violating the INF Treaty.

According to representatives of the US administration, the United States will also put on the agenda a discussion of 5G communications technologies. The United States opposes the cooperation of European countries with Chinese companies promoting this technology for fear of espionage. However, in October, German authorities refused to block the Chinese company Huawei from entering the high-speed communications market. At the same time, the Minister of Economics and Energy of the Federal Republic of Germany, Peter Altmaier, speaking about Chinese 5G systems, said that Washington itself orders US companies to collect data. In addition, the minister recalled that the National Security Agency (NSA) had already been caught in wiretapping in Germany. In response to statements by the German minister, the US ambassador to Germany accused him of "disrespect" to Washington.

At the same time, French President Emmanuel Macron challenged the view of Russia as a threat to NATO ahead of the summit. During a meeting with Jens Stoltenberg on November 28, he said that he did not consider either Moscow or Beijing to be an “enemy” and was aimed at creating a new architecture of trust and security in Europe.

• Emmanuel Macron
• Reuters
• © Bertrand Guay / Pool

Financial aspect

On the eve of the meeting in London, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reported on the growth of defense spending of the countries participating in the alliance. According to him, this year the countries of Europe and Canada as a whole increased their military spending by 4.6%. Stoltenberg also said that in the indicated period nine members of the bloc - the USA, Great Britain, Greece, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Bulgaria, Romania and Estonia - fulfilled the plan for defense spending, having allocated at least 2% of GDP for these purposes. In 2014, only Americans, British and Greeks reached such an indicator.
At the same time, Germany and France still spend less than the bar set by the alliance.

According to the NATO Secretary General, the London summit will also discuss the issue of a “more equitable distribution of the burden on the issue of investments” in defense.

It is worth recalling that the other day Stoltenberg noted that the United States will now reduce its contributions to the NATO budget from 22% to 16%. Recall that Donald Trump, at which the defense budget reached record levels, regularly blames the partners in the bloc for the fact that the main burden of expenses lies with the United States.

However, experts say that the EU rightly believes that Washington is trying to load its own military-industrial complex through European orders.

So, on December 1, France’s harrow minister Florence Parley announced that the United States should not impose its weapons on the alliance’s countries under the pretext of Euro-Atlantic solidarity.

Experts believe that such rhetoric may also be connected with the fact that the strengthening of the military component of NATO on the borders with Russia only increases tension in the region, which is not in the interests of European countries.

“The militarization that is taking place in the member countries of the alliance in no way strengthens the European security system, about which NATO officials are so vocal in their words,” said Sergey Ermakov, an expert at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, in an interview with RT.

“It is extremely difficult to agree”

Analysts recall that not only the French are dissatisfied with US policy in terms of imposing their own production of arms on partners. The dispute between Washington and Ankara over Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense systems was not resolved even after Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s December visit to the United States. US lawmakers threaten Turkey with sanctions, and Erdogan calls on Turkish citizens and entrepreneurs to abandon the dollar.

• Russian S-400 in Turkey
• Reuters
• © Turkish Military / Turkish Defense Ministry

At the same time, many countries of Europe imposed an embargo on the supply of arms to Turkey in connection with the operation "Source of Peace", which she carried out in Syria. On the eve of the summit, Turkish-Greek relations also escalated. According to the Associated Press, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said last Sunday that he intends to ask the alliance for help in a dispute with Turkey.

Earlier, the Greek Foreign Ministry called the Turkish leader the main "violator of international law in the region." The reason was Erdogan's statement that Turkey will continue to conduct exploration in the hydrocarbon-rich exclusive economic zone of Cyprus. Also, the Greek Foreign Ministry calls illegal the memorandum of understanding on marine areas, which was signed during the week by Erdogan and the head of the Libyan government of national consent, Faiz Saraj.

It should also be noted that the November 7 interview by Emmanuel Macron of the Economist magazine, in which he announced the "brain death" of the North Atlantic Alliance, had the effect of an exploding bomb.

“At some point, we will have to reconsider the expediency of NATO,” said the French president.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed her disagreement with the position of the French leader, and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spoke in a conciliatory spirit, saying that relations within the alliance were never perfect.

The Turkish president was more critical of the statement of his formal ally, inviting Macron himself to "check" the brain. In addition, Erdogan did not fail to take advantage of the situation to declare that the French troops have no right to be in Syria.

“At a declarative level, NATO officials say that the bloc has made incredible progress, that it is a successful alliance that lasted 70 years. However, the development of the situation around this summit shows that NATO has had very serious problems, ”said Sergey Ermakov.

He recalled that the document defining the goals and objectives facing NATO, the “strategic concept”, has not been updated since 2010.

“This suggests that it is extremely difficult for alliance members to agree on strategic issues. The positions of a number of countries regarding what they consider to be real threats contradict each other, ”the source said.

The leaders' plans for the London summit are also affected by domestic political problems. On the one hand, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson must meet with Donald Trump. On the other hand, according to the Financial Times, citing the environment of the head of government of the United Kingdom, the British do not plan to hold any joint press conferences with the American leader, fearing that this could negatively affect the image of the prime minister on the eve of the early elections scheduled for December 12.

At the same time, Trump himself was very outraged that the Democrats in Congress scheduled a hearing as part of his impeachment procedure for the duration of the summit.

Heading to Europe to represent our Country and fight hard for the American People while the Do Nothing Democrats purposely scheduled an Impeachment Hoax hearing on the same date as NATO. Not nice! pic.twitter.com/LCXYhoOWF6

East frontier

RISI expert Sergei Ermakov, in a conversation with RT, said that he did not expect any radically new statements at the NATO summit. At the same time, in his opinion, the bargaining chip, most likely, will be obligations in relation to the countries of Eastern Europe.

“Both France, Germany, and Turkey, and each of the participating countries will try to protect their national interests by bargaining with Washington for support for Poland and the Baltic states,” the analyst believes.

Earlier media reported that Turkey blocked NATO plans to protect the Baltic states and Poland "in the event of an attack by Russia" until the alliance countries recognize the formation of Syrian Kurds as terrorists.

• US Army soldiers in exercises in Latvia
• Reuters
• © Ints Kalnins

Commenting on this information, the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that, according to Ankara, "what the Baltic countries need, we must give to us."

“Gone are the days when NATO could carry out successful operations, like in Yugoslavia or in Libya. The time of uncertainty has come, ”said military expert Ivan Konovalov in an interview with RT.

“Now the block faced the question: why does it exist if the former power is no longer there. However, there is an attempt to revive the significance of NATO. And this is done at the expense of Russia and on its borders, when an enemy is artificially created from Moscow, ”Konovalov added.

Next year, NATO plans to conduct the largest exercise in 25 years to transfer troops to the European continent. As part of the Defender Europe 2020 maneuvers (Defender of Europe 2020), it is planned to transport 20,000 troops along with the equipment across the Atlantic, including to the Baltic countries, to Russian borders in a short time.

However, according to Sergei Ermakov, in the current realities, Russia successfully withstands NATO’s force pressure.

“We adequately assess the situation, not getting involved in any arms race, while preserving the chance to maintain stability, rather than proceed to confrontation. We are acting on all fronts, including in the military, in the diplomatic, in the political and in the information sphere, ”the expert noted.

From the point of view of Ivan Konovalov, the best response to NATO’s aggressive plans is the systematic strengthening of the Russian armed forces in recent years.

“All necessary measures to counter the threat from the West are being taken,” the political scientist concluded.

* "Taliban" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003 .