Adaptation period: how a change in EU leadership will affect relations between Russia and Europe

On December 1, the new composition of the governing bodies of the European Union officially began to exercise its powers. For a minimum of the next 2.5 years, the 43-year-old former Prime Minister of Belgium Charles Michel became the chairman of the EU’s highest political authority - the European Council. He succeeded Pole Donald Tusk at this post.

Michel is considered a supporter of strengthening the EU, creating common defense and security structures.

“We live in peace, but we should remain vigilant, extremely vigilant,” he described his vision of EU policy.

In his welcoming telegram, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev expressed confidence that “the rich experience of state and political activities of Charles Michel will contribute to the effective work of the European Council and will restore a mutually beneficial and constructive dialogue between Russia and the European Union.”

On Sunday, the new European Commission (EC) took office. For the first time in history, this supreme executive body of the EU will be headed by a woman - former Minister of Defense of Germany Ursula von der Leyen. She replaced the Luxembourger Jean-Claude Juncker. Instead of the Italian Federica Mogherini, Spaniard Josep Borrel became the new representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs (in fact, the Minister for Foreign Affairs of the EU).

On the eve of the change of leadership in the EU, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told how Moscow sees relations with the European Union.

“The interaction between Russia and the European Union has a significant effect on the economies of the countries of the European Union and the Russian Federation. Therefore, we look at the prospect of our relations with the European Union from such a pragmatic angle, based on the fact that breaking contacts and imposing sanctions and barriers to each other does not lead to anything good, ”he said.

Earlier, State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin estimated the damage to the EU countries from sanctions at $ 100 billion.

Relations with Russia

According to experts, in the relations between Russia and the EU, under the new leadership of the European Union, no serious changes will occur.

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According to Pavel Feldman, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts at RUDN University, the EU is now fighting for influence between France and Germany.

“In the new posts in the EU leadership, this is clearly visible. Germany managed to hold its de facto post number one in the European Union of its own man - Ursul von der Leyen. But at the same time, the influence of Emmanuel Macron and France in the EU is growing, ”he said in an interview with RT.

Charles Michel, according to Feldman, shares many of Macron's views. The new head of the European Council, like the French president, is determined to strengthen the EU and is skeptical of NATO's prospects.

“Two positions clashed in the EU: Germany and France. In Germany, when it comes to relations with Russia, it is pro-American. Berlin does not want to change anything in politics in the Russian direction. Paris, however, advocates rather reconciliation with Moscow and reaching the level of relations that existed before the sanctions, ”says Feldman.

Charles Michel and Ursula von der Layen spoke differently about relations with Russia.

“History knew good and less good moments in relations between Europe and Russia, but given that we are neighbors, we will always work together,” Michelle said during a visit to Russia in January 2018.

In turn, Ursula von der Lyne, after being elected as the head of the European Commission, gave a large interview to the Italian edition of La Reppubblica, in which she stated that “the Kremlin does not forgive any weakness”, and therefore it is necessary to maintain anti-Russian sanctions, while at the same time leaving the door for dialogue open.

At the same time, analysts note that the main issue for the new leadership of the European Union will still not be relations with Russia.

“The emphasis in the work will be placed on the environmental agenda. If we talk about external relations, Africa will be given priority, ”Tatyana Romanova, associate professor of European studies at St. Petersburg State University, said in an interview with RT.

Priority will be given to Africa because there comes the main flow of migrants to Europe, experts explain. As for the EU course towards Russia, it has already been formed and will not change in the near future, Romanova is sure.

“Please note: in none of the keynote speeches of any of the current EU leaders, in principle, almost nothing is said about Russia, with the exception of traditional phrases about the need to implement the Minsk agreements, return Crimea to Ukraine and so on. So you should not expect any serious progress in relations between the EU and Russia, ”she said.

Adaptation required

In the near future, the European Union will be busy adapting to the changing conditions in world politics, experts say. So, Romanova notes that the new EU leadership will have to build relations with the new American president if Donald Trump is unable to elect for a new term, or to adapt to the new line of the current owner of the White House if he wins the 2020 election. After all, the second mandate of American presidents is often associated with experiments in foreign policy, analysts say.

• Donald Tusk and Charles Michel, the old and new heads of the European Council
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“US-EU relations will largely depend on America, on how the presidential election will be held there. In this case, the EU is more likely to respond to US actions than to be an active player. The ball is on the side of Washington, ”says Romanova.

Feldman, in turn, believes that in relations with the US, the new EU leadership will strive, on the one hand, to maintain existing allied relations, and on the other, to strengthen its sovereignty.

“Two main trends will work: the first is to strengthen friendship with the United States, the second is to gain certain sovereignty from NATO and America,” he said.

In addition, according to the expert, Europe will need adaptation measures after Britain leaves the European Union. Romanova believes that there will be no fundamental reforms in the EU, but the new leadership will try to consolidate this organization.

At the same time, analysts emphasize that the EU, most likely, in the coming years will not seek to include new members from among the post-Soviet countries. According to Romanova, the Balkan countries can join the European Union, they want and there are difficulties.

“Most likely, they will raise the issue of EU enlargement, but post-Soviet countries will be among the most recent contenders. This also applies to Ukraine: the difficult economic situation and territorial conflict close its doors to the EU. In addition, Kiev needs to deal with corruption and the quality of public administration, ”says Feldman.

In his opinion, Georgia has more chances for a cardinal rapprochement with the EU, but even in her case, joining the European Union is unlikely for the same reasons as Ukraine.

“Those countries of the former USSR that are now talking about their plans to join the EU are quite far from their goal. It’s difficult to name any post-Soviet state that can hope for this in the coming years, ”Feldman believes.