“A challenge for Merkel personally”: how changes in the leadership of the German parties can affect the policy of the FRG

In Germany, published the results of the election of the leadership of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD). Representatives of the left wing - Norbert Walter-Boryans and Saskia Esken, who received 53.06% of the votes of members of the SPD, were elected new leaders of the party. The need for new elections arose after the former SPD leader Andrea Nales resigned in June.

Voting results must be approved at the party conference, which will be held December 6-8. There it will be decided whether the party will remain a member of the government "big coalition" with the block CDU-CSU (Christian Democratic Union-Christian Social Union) Angels Merkel. This union, uniting two traditional rivals for power in Germany, was formed in February 2018.

Skeptics at the helm

Walter-Boryans and Esken won the second round of voting. The results of the first were announced on October 26. Then, in front, with a margin of just over 1.5%, another pair was in the lead: Finance Minister Olaf Scholz and East German politician Klara Geyvits.

• Norbert Walter-Boriance and Saskia Esken
• Reuters
• © Fabrizio Bensch

However, in the end, ordinary party members voted for their opponents. Unlike Scholz and Geyvits, they are considered to be representatives of the left wing of the party, skeptical of the "big coalition."

According to The Financial Times, the politicians who took the helm of the SPD previously spoke of the need to revise the 2018 coalition treaty, in particular on government spending and the environment. However, the CDU-CSU rejected this possibility.

Immediately after the announcement of the results, Norbert Walter-Boryans announced that he was not going to leave the ruling coalition at all costs. However, according to him, conservatives should make concessions.

This position, as noted by German and world media, can lead to the collapse of the ruling coalition.

“Doubts about the viability of a large coalition are adequate and appropriate. The growth of the left wing in the SPD party is very tangible. The new leadership should give results right now - and that means hard times for the rest of the coalition, ”Werner Weidenfeld, director of the center for applied political studies and political science professor at the University of Munich, explained in a Bild interview to Bild. “So, in the foreseeable future, we will say goodbye to a large coalition.”

Left turn

German politicians reacted differently to the results of the SPD elections. Former leader of the Social Democrats and ex-President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz warned the new leadership against leaving the coalition with the Angela Merkel bloc. Axel Fischer, deputy chairman of the CDU faction in the Bundestag, said his party members were ready for any development. Jörg Moyten, leader of the Alternative for Germany, said he was positive about the prospect of new elections to the Bundestag.

Wolfgang Kubiki, vice-chairman of the liberal German Free Democratic Party (FDP), took a similar position. Christian Lidner, the leader of the “Free Democrats,” wrote on his Twitter that the SPD has chosen “left-wing and opposition.”

Gratulation an die neue SPD-Führung. Die Basis der @spdde hat Linkskurs und Opposition gewählt. Sie entscheidet damit den Kurs der SPD, aber nicht den des Landes - es sei denn, die @CDU lässt sich zu Nachverhandlungen provozieren und dann über den Tisch ziehen. CL #SPDVorsitz

In the left-most part of the German political spectrum, the results of the elections in the Social Democratic Party were enthusiastically received. Co-chairman of the Left Party Bernd Rixinger congratulated the elected leaders of the SPD, saying that the country needs left-wing politicians and not a “no-lose” course of the “big coalition”.

Herzlichen Glückwunsch an @NowaboFM und @EskenSaskia. Die #SPD und das Land braucht dringend linke Politik statt ideenlosem # GroKo-Schlingerkurs! #SPDVorsitz

In turn, the co-chairs of the Greens Annalena Burbock and Robert Habek, congratulating the new leaders of the Social Democrats, expressed hope for fruitful cooperation.

“The course of the left wing of the SPD is more focused on the Red Coalition, an alliance with the Left Party,” Alexander Kamkin, a leading researcher at the Center for German Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with RT. - In addition, left-wing politicians in the SPD do not exclude the possibility of a “red-green” coalition. Therefore, of course, this is a challenge personally for Merkel and for her party. "This means more heat when discussing issues related to the continuation of joint work, and in the worst case scenario it can lead to the collapse of the ruling coalition."

• Demonstration of supporters of the party Die Linke
• Reuters
• © Matthias Rietschel

According to the expert, the rank and file of the SPD, having voted for Norbert Walter-Boryans and Saskia Esken, made a choice in favor of a more socially oriented policy of Germany.

“The ideological boundaries between the CSU CSU and the SPD have blurred over the past decade. The CDU ruled, and the SPD ruled. And in general, there are already quite few clear lines of demarcation. And this confuses the voter, who, out of a feeling of protest, is going to vote for other parties - “Left” or “Alternative for Germany,” the expert explained.

Fall in popularity

It is worth noting that changes in the leadership of the German Social Democrats are taking place against the background of a sharp drop in the ratings of this party. If the Social Democrats were second in the Bundestag elections in 2017, now they are fighting for third place with the Eurosceptics from Alternative for Germany. At the same time, opinion polls show that only about 14% of voters are ready to vote for the SPD.

In the elections to the European Parliament in May of this year, the Social Democrats came in only third, losing 12% of the vote compared to the 2014 elections.

The SPD also unsuccessfully advocates for parliamentary elections in German lands. So, in May, the Social Democrats for the first time in the history of Germany lost control of the Landtag of Bremen. In the fall, they were defeated in the elections in Thuringia and Saxony. Failures forced many party members to demand an exit from the ruling coalition.

However, according to experts, it is precisely the low ratings of the Social Democrats that can cause them not to take radical steps. After all, withdrawal from the coalition with the CDU-CSU will bring the prospect of early elections closer, and the Social Democrats risk coming to them only by the third, which will lead to the loss of posts in the government.

“Most likely, the coalition will remain until the next Bundestag election, which will be held in 2021,” said Fedor Basov, researcher at the European Political Studies Department of IMEMO RAS. - And it is unlikely that the Social Democrats will improve their situation if the elections take place right now. Therefore, I do not think that they will want to leave the coalition. ”

However, Oleg Bonderenko, director of the Progressive Politics Fund, does not agree with this position. In his opinion, “Merkel and the current ruling coalition will not be able to survive until the end of their formal mandate.”

“This is due to the complete lack of all confidence in the leaders of the two main ruling parties,” the political scientist said in an interview with RT.

New Right

Along with the announcement of the voting results in the SPD, the leadership of another political party was updated. The male tandem became the leaders of the right “Alternatives for Germany”: Tino Hrupall, 44-year-old politician from Saxony, joined the 58-year-old co-chair Jörg Moyten.

• New AfD Co-Chair Tino Hrupalla
• AFP
• © Ronny Hartmann

This decision was made at a congress on Saturday in Braunschweig. Khrupalla is considered a representative of the moderate wing of the party, which opponents call the radical right.

78-year-old Alexander Gauland, the co-founder and informal leader of the Alternative in the Bundestag, refused to stand for election. At the congress, he announced that sooner or later the conservatives from the CDU would be forced to join the coalition with his party.

“If the Greens, the Social Democrats and the Left join together, the day will come when the weakened CDU will have only one option - we,” the politician emphasized.

Recall that in the elections held this fall in the territories of the former GDR, “Alternative for Germany” showed an increase in its support. In September, populists came second in the Landtag elections in Saxony and Brandenburg: in Saxony after the CDU, in Brandenburg after the Social Democrats. In Thuringia, the AdG, having received 24% of the vote, overtook both the CDU and the SPD, losing only to the Left Party.

Now, "Alternative for Germany" has the third largest fraction in the Bundestag.

"Alternative" wants to occupy the niche of a socially responsible right-wing conservative party of a national-patriotic sense. They are very afraid of overly nationalistic rhetoric. Therefore, they are trying to put more moderate politicians in front, ”Alexander Kamkin emphasizes.

Foreign policy effect

According to Bloomberg, the election results of the SPD leadership complicate the position of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The country's economic growth has slowed, and the position of populists inside the country is growing, the newspaper notes.

• Angela Merkel and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer
• Reuters
• © Michele Tantussi / File

At the same time, the young and ambitious French President Emmanuel Macron is challenging the aging Chancellor of Germany in the European arena. Merkel in December last year voluntarily agreed to the role of the “lame duck”, losing the chairmanship of the CDU to her successor, Annegret Kramp Karrenbauer.

Domestic political problems in Germany - the countries with the highest economic weight in the EU - may weaken the influence of the EU on the world stage and complicate the search for the EU’s development after Brexit, Bloomberg concludes.

At the same time, the well-known political columnist of the publication Andreas Klut believes that the collapse of the ruling coalition will be beneficial to Germany and Europe as a whole, as it will shake up the German leadership, who has nothing to say in response to Macron’s bold initiatives, which went so far as to call for cooperation with By Russia.

In particular, according to Klut, as a result of the early elections, more seats in the parliament can be gained by the Greens, who are inclined to more active actions in the international arena.

However, the British publication The New Statesman notes that even without an early election, the influence of the Greens on politics, including foreign, may increase. In particular, if a minority government is created, then Merkel’s laws will require the support of other factions, including the Greens.

At the same time, the representative of the Green Party, Omid Nuripur, noted that the EU does not need instability in Germany, especially since Berlin will preside over the EU next year, Spiegel reports.

In turn, the Bundestag deputy from the Left, Sarah Wagenknecht, wrote in her Twitter that changes in the leadership of the SPD are good news for supporters of a more socially oriented policy and the country's peaceful course.

Herzlichen Glückwunsch, Norbert Walter-Borjans und Saskia Esken! Die #SPD lebt noch, das ist eine gute Nachricht für alle, die sich eine andere Politik in Deutschland wünschen: für mehr sozialen Zusammenhalt, weniger Ungleichheit und eine friedliche Außenpolitik.

According to Oleg Bondarenko, if early elections are held, then we should expect the strengthening of the “Alternative for Germany”, which traditionally opposes the strengthening of European integration, but for friendly relations with Russia.

“It will be very difficult to form a government without representatives of this political force,” the expert emphasizes.

However, according to him, there are politicians friendly to our country both in the right and left parties. And in general, whatever the outcome of the domestic political struggle in Germany, relations between Moscow and Berlin will at least not worsen.

“Elections cannot change Germany’s attitude to Russia,” the expert said. - Now our contacts are not at the peak at which they were before, but Germany is a country with a huge number of internal horizontal ties, and Russian-German cooperation is based on these horizontal ties. These are communications in business, in politics, communications between parties. Moreover, the current level of Russian-German political communication is unprecedentedly high. “Perhaps with no other country in Europe and the world, we do not have such a level of constant interaction.”