The protests, which have erupted in Iran since last Friday and left about 100 dead, reveal three obvious things. First, Tehran seems to be living in escalating economic distress, owing to harsh US sanctions, on the one hand, and popular discontent with the regime's mismanagement of the country's economy, which has reached a point of no return, and the regime seems more appalling than popular unrest than in years Last.

The recent popular protests began a few days ago, after the government canceled fuel subsidies, tripling the price of motor fuel, a blow to millions of ordinary Iranians, already struggling to live in a weak currency, high unemployment, and an economy. In case of shrinkage. But the protests that erupted as a result of the abolition of fuel subsidies quickly became sweeping protests against the Iranian regime itself in dozens of cities in all Iranian provinces, targeting government buildings such as police stations and banks.

A harsher response

The government's response was harsher than it did last time, during protests in 2017 and 2018, when the Internet was almost completely interrupted, and security forces used excessive force. Human rights groups, including Amnesty International, documented some 106 deaths during these protests, as government security forces used live ammunition against demonstrators. The cruelty of repression is evidence of the government's desperation for its inability to influence public opinion, and these events are the result of Iranians witnessing weeks of similar bloody protests, also directed against Iran, but in Iraq and Lebanon. "Basically, it's economic protests," said Henry Rom, an Iran analyst at Eurasia Group. "There is an opportunity to lodge broad complaints against the government."

In fact, the increase in the price of fuel, which effectively raised the price of motor fuel and diesel for most drivers, from eight cents per liter to about 25 cents per liter, was intended to secure a few hundred million dollars to the government during the year, in addition to Rationalize rapidly decreasing supplies of motor fuel, which are exported for greater and better gains than distributed internally. The government had hoped to implement its plan to redistribute the proceeds of raising fuel prices to low-income families, which could ease the pain of the measure, but postponing the redistribution of money to the poor kept the protests boiling.

risk

Indeed, Iran's risk of causing outrage across the country in order to gain a simple economic gain underscores the dire state of Iran's economy, hit by US sanctions, that the country is virtually unable to export oil, a major source of revenue for the government. "They have raised the price of fuel because they are penniless," said Alireza Nader, a researcher at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

Another problem is that many people simply do not believe that the government can distribute the proceeds of raising fuel prices to the poor. Others worry that higher fuel prices could lead to higher prices for all consumer goods, as Iran's annual inflation rate is officially 40%, perhaps five times higher.

Although Iranian officials, including President Hassan Rouhani, blame foreign countries, especially the United States, for being responsible for the deteriorating economic situation in their country and responsible for organizing protests against the government, the role played by the United States. What is known to the public, indirectly in the outbreak of protests. Since US President Donald Trump began to impose harsh sanctions on Iran's economy, including a ban on oil sales, the Iranian economy has suffered a free fall. Under mounting pressure from sanctions, the IMF has lowered its outlook for the Iranian economy, and the Iranian economy is now expected to shrink by 10% this year.

But protests, such as the one that swept the state in 2017 and 2018, are not against the difficulties caused by U.S. sanctions and pressure.Many Iranians are now angry at rampant corruption and mismanagement of the 40-year-old economy since the Iranian revolution. "The grievances that protesters are talking about already exist before the harsh US sanctions campaign against Iran, but it is the state of financial pressures that the government has forced to take steps to raise the price of fuel, which brought these grievances to the forefront," he said. The streets, any simple protests could turn into a snowball. "As soon as a loophole opens, the entire dam will collapse," he said.

If US economic sanctions are doubled, they will bring Iran into distress. Does this mean that the campaign of maximum sanctions imposed by the Trump administration is successful?

If the administration's goal is to change the calculations of Iranian leaders regarding their country's activities to destabilize the region and continue to develop its nuclear technology, the answer will be clear: "No". The country is also launching more attacks on neighboring countries, as well as spending billions of dollars to support terrorist groups acting on behalf of Iran in the region. At the same time, Iran has broken its obligations under the 2015 agreement, resumed uranium enrichment at high levels, and installed several sophisticated centrifuges, which could cut short the path to nuclear weapons.

The pressure pays off

If the Trump administration's goal is to destabilize Iran to the extent that the regime faces existential threats from within, it means that economic pressures are paying off, albeit not entirely clear. Iran's reaction to the protests has been unprecedented levels of violence and murder. Some observers see Iran as a sign that the regime feels its destiny is failing. "It is a total rebellion, not just a protest against fuel prices," Nader said. "The regime wanted to cut the Internet to fight the protests as harshly as possible. But it seems that even if this round of protests is broken and eliminated, there will be others. "He will be able to get out of this tour."

Others believe that the combination of providing money to low-income people, as well as the use of brutal repression, may support the regime's continued hold on power, as it has done in previous times. "These protests do not pose a threat to the regime from a security point of view," said Rohm. "He has a strong repression power, he is not afraid to kill his people, and the regime will remain the same.

Keith Johnson is a senior author of Foreign Policy

Protests that erupted as a result of the abolition of fuel subsidies quickly became sweeping protests against the Iranian regime in dozens of cities in all Iranian provinces, targeting government buildings such as police stations and banks.

The cruelty of repression is evidence of the government's desperation for its inability to influence public opinion. These events are the result of Iranians witnessing weeks of similar bloody protests against Iran, but also in Iraq and Lebanon.