Is America on the verge of full energy independence?

In a recent pivotal shift, the United States is months away from achieving full energy independence.

By 2030, total primary energy production is likely to exceed demand for the same energy by nearly 30%, according to the latest forecast by oil and gas company Restad Energy.

Oil price will follow a strong period of growth in both hydrocarbon and renewable resources, and the US is expected to post a preliminary surplus, Oil Price said in its report, citing Sender Knutson, vice president of Restad Energy Oil & Gas, of the Gas Markets team. Energy by February or March 2020, depending on the winter season.

Energy independence
According to Knutson in the coming phases, the United States will be able to achieve its energy independence in a monthly format, with total primary energy production rates going to exceed 30 percent of primary energy demand by 2030.

These developments have already peaked. Accordingly, Ristad Energy Oil & Gas expects that the next monthly release of the U.S. Energy Information Administration will reveal that the United States has always enjoyed self-sufficiency in primary energy for a full 12 months, from October 2018 to September 2019.

Knutson noted that this is the first time this has happened since May 1982, as this latest development illustrates some broad implications on a number of fronts.

In 2018, the U.S. oil deficit was estimated at $ 62 billion, 10 percent of the country's total trade deficit of $ 621 billion, including goods and services, the website quoted Knutson as saying.

From deficit to growth
These changes in the US energy balance could turn its oil-deficit of $ 62 billion in 2018 into a surplus of $ 340 billion by 2030.

The change could add up to $ 400 billion in a span of no more than 12 years, he said, thanks primarily to the dramatic rise in US shale production.

In this regard, Restad Energy expects total primary energy production to rise from 95 quadrillion BTUs in 2018 to 138 quadrillion BTUs in 2030.

Production of both crude oil and natural gas will be the main contributors to the growth of primary energy supplies in that period, with oil accounting for 75 percent of growth and gas accounting for 38 percent.

Crude oil production from the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford basins is also expected to grow from 21.5 quadrillion BTUs (10.32 million barrels per day) in 2018 to 39 quadrillion BTUs (18.73 million barrels per day) in 2030. .

The growth in natural gas production is due to increased supplies in the Marcelus, Hainesville and Utica basins, and there is also a significant amount of associated gas from the Permian basins, which would bring the total natural gas production to 40 quadrillion BTUs (approximately 1.1 trillion). Cubic meters of natural gas) in 2030, compared to 29 quadrillion British thermal units (0.8 cubic tons of gas) in 2018.

sustainable energy
Restad Energy expects primary energy production through renewable sources, including hydropower, to increase from 11.7 quadrillion BTUs (3.43 trillion kWh) in 2018 to 19 quadrillion BTUs (5.57 trillion), the website said. KWh of electricity) in 2030.

This is equivalent to 63% of the growth, while solar and wind power growth is expected to be around 357% and 257% respectively.

Coal production is expected to decline by 37% in the same period, from 15.3 quadrillion BTUs (809 million tonnes of coal) in 2018, to 9.6 quadrillion BTUs (492 quintals). Million tons) by 2030.

Regarding demand, Ristad Energy expects a cumulative growth rate of around 0.4% from 2018 to 2030, which could reach 106 quadrillion BTUs in 2030.

Knutson said the emerging energy surplus could make the US less vulnerable to foreign energy policies and facilitate export growth.

Although renewable energy consumption will be domestically consumed, the future of oil and gas exports is impressive.

The energy balance derived from fossil fuels at Ristad Energy shows that the United States was a net importer, exporting 1.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2018, supported by a very large balance of imported liquids.

As oil and shale gas production continues to grow, the United States will import fewer barrels of oil and increase its exports of natural gas, making the country a net exporter of 0.6 million barrels of fossil fuels.

Ristad Energy expects the US surplus of fossil fuels to rise to 12 million barrels per day by 2030, which could allow a larger increase in exports of natural gas and liquids.

According to Knutson's observations, the growth of the shale industry will continue to revolutionize the US energy balance and create new export opportunities and developments in the country's overall trade balance.