Boris Johnson moves towards an absolute majority of more than 40 deputies in the December 12 elections after opening a gap of 12 to 19 points over the Labor Party , according to the latest polls. With the wind of the campaign in his favor, the "premier" promised to freeze taxes for five years and anticipated his intention to pass the Brexit law as soon as the new year was established and "as an early Christmas gift to the nation" (although the departure would not be consummated until January).
With the presentation of the conservative manifesto in Telford, in the heart of the Midlands, Johnson aspires to mark the distances in the final stretch of the campaign and avoid a fiasco like that of Theresa May in 2017, when he let out an advantage of more than 10 points. Assisted by a new electoral guru, the Australian Isaac Levido (with Dominic Cummings in the rear), Johnson has made progress on insurance with a repetitive message: "Get Brexit done".
This is how the 60-page manifesto is titled, presented to hundreds of followers in one of those constituencies where the Brexit vote can unbalance the balance in favor of conservatives. Faced with the radical proposals of Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn, with his plan of renationalisation and economic reforms, Johnson opted for such a simple proposal: " Allow the British to have more money in their pockets ."
His focus was once again Brexit, with the promise of "unleashing the full potential of the United Kingdom" before even the Big Beng bells at the end of the year. "As families get ready to break the turkey this Christmas, I want them to enjoy the holidays free of this endless drama of Brexit," Johnson said.
"Imagine the horror movie in the style" Friday, 13 "that would happen without success the coalition between Corbyn and the Scottish nationalists of Nicola Sturgeon ," the conservative leader warned his hosts. "We would have more delays, two new divisive referendums and economic ruin ... We can't allow this nightmare to happen before Christmas."
Johnson thus reached the crucial part of his campaign with the first objective accomplished: maintaining the safety line of more than 10 points over Corbyn. Neither the launch of the Labor manifesto, nor its role in the first two television debates has allowed the Labor leader a "resurrection" like the one two years ago. His declaration of "neutrality" in a hypothetical second EU referendum has stunned his voters in favor of permanence (more than 70%).
As a counterpart, Boris Johnson has managed to capture three out of four voters in favor of the EU's exit and has turned the Conservative Party into the true Brexit Party, badly despite the nationalist Nigel Farage, winner of the European elections and cornered back to the margins of British politics (below 5% in the polls).
The Conservative Party leads the Labor Party by 19 points in the latest Opinium poll for The Observer (47% to 28%) and by 12 points in YouGov's for The Sunday Times (42% to 30%). This last survey allows to project an easy majority of the Conservative Party, around 48 deputies, despite the ostensible recovery of the Scottish National Party (SNP), which would reach 49 seats.
The polls also reflect a worrying downward trend of the Democratic Liberal Party, second in the European elections. Its new leader, Jo Swinson, has missed the advantage acquired, has punctured this week in his first television debate and has failed to capture the vote in favor of permanence. The fall in the Liberal Democrats' polls could ultimately benefit the Labor Party. The useful vote, in favor and against Brexit, can lead in the last two weeks an approach between the two major parties. Except for surprises in the campaign, however, Boris Johnson could maintain the "safe distance" to the finish line and touch the dream of the absolute majority to complete the exit of the EU on January 31: the first and last reason for which called early elections.
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