During his recent visit to the White House, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a rare opportunity to express his views, address millions of viewers from the American people and the international community, while Erdogan continued to flout Western agreements, such as buying Russian military equipment, imprisoning journalists, invading northern Syria, and allowing To his Syrian allies for unchecked war crimes, US President Donald Trump has devoted most of his words to praise Turkey and his Turkish counterpart when he said: “Turkey, as everyone knows, is a great ally of NATO and a strategic partner of the United States around the world. », Thanked Erdoga For its efforts to support a ceasefire in northeastern Syria, although the fighting has never really ceased, and for Turkey's vital contributions to operations in Afghanistan and against ISIS, although Turkey has in fact played no significant role in the killing of ISIS leader. »Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in a raid of US special operations just miles from Turkey's border with Iraq. `` I am a big fan of the president, '' Trump said.Trump made no mention of accusations of horrific war crimes and human rights violations during the invasion of northern Syria, including the use of white phosphorus munitions against civilians, the execution of prisoners, and the targeting of women and children.
platform
“Erdogan should be happy with the fact that Trump offered him a platform in the White House to defend himself, while his government is constantly under fire from the international media,” says Turkish journalist Ragheb Soilo, commenting on Twitter. "It is a public relations success for Erdogan, where international television channels have been broadcasting his remarks for 15 minutes.
The Oval Office meeting - which also included a group of prominent senators, including Lindsay Graham - could have paved the way for the two leaders to reach agreement on countless issues, including Turkey's purchase of Russia's S-400 missile system, which threatens US fighter jets, a possible $ 100 billion trade deal, and so far no agreement has been reached on either issue.
The US administration has offered a "solution" involving Turkey's agreement not to activate the S400 system, which arrived in Turkey this summer, paving the way for Washington to allow Ankara to rejoin the F35 program. But experts confirm that Erdogan quickly withdrew again on the issue. Thomas Karako, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says that simply agreeing not to activate the S400 is not a concession and can be easily reversed. "It can certainly be turned off, but it cannot be stopped, it can be stored, but the level of confidence that "Turkey will not use it six months from now or a year later, it is basically zero."
The concern is that Turkey may use the S400 system, which is designed to track the most advanced fighter aircraft in the United States, as well as to get basic information about how the F-35 operates when it is in stealth mode. Such ideas will be launched quickly to Moscow, which is mainly involved in training the Turkish armed forces, on how to operate the S400 before buying, and Turkey has already sent personnel to Russia to begin training.
After the S400 arrived in Turkey this summer, the Pentagon formally removed Turkey from the F-35 program, noting that Ankara should stop production work on the aircraft by March 2020. But US officials have left the door open Turkey to return to the program, if they find a way to address the problem «S400».
"The two systems should not be in the same position," the commander of the US-European Command, General Todt Walters, said in October. "The ball is now in Turkey's court, and we will continue to move forward. "The military between the US and NATO perspective remains strong."
US Defense Secretary Mark Asper reiterated his concerns to his Turkish counterpart when they met last month. “I was very clear in my last meeting with the Turkish defense minister,” I told him again. "This would pose a threat to this program."
Harsh punishments
The extradition of the Russian regime this summer to Turkey could also lead to harsh sanctions under the Anti-American Adversaries Act 2017, which targets allied countries that buy Russian defense equipment. But Trump postponed the imposition of these sanctions, despite protests from lawmakers. Any agreement on resolving the problem is likely to anger among lawmakers, who have threatened serious consequences since Ankara expressed interest in buying the Russian missile system.
Karako says Erdogan has several reasons to buy the S400, although the United States has offered him a Patriot missile system as an alternative. The first is political, since Erdogan views the system as a "tribute" to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The other reason is technical: the S400's radar range is 360 degrees, while the more expensive Patriot is 180 degrees. In addition, Erdogan, who was attacked by his own forces in 2016 using US F-16 fighter jets, wants a system designed to shoot down Western planes.
Lara Seligman is an analyst at Furin Policy.
Obama
US President Donald Trump has blamed former President Barack Obama for fueling the conflict, claiming that his administration has refused to sell Erdogan the Patriot. But this accusation is not entirely accurate. Turkey has already rejected Patriot twice before the latest offer, which included better pricing and co-production conditions, but the Foreign Ministry formally foiled the deal this summer. The deal failed in both cases because Ankara insisted on transferring missile technology, something US officials have refused to do. However, Erdogan still hopes to buy Patriot, although it is unclear what the discussions will lead to.
Erdogan should be happy with the fact that Trump offered him a platform in the White House to defend himself, while his government is constantly under fire from the international media.
Erdogan has several reasons for buying the S400, the first politician. The Turkish president views the system as a "tribute" to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The second is technical: the S400 radar is 360 degrees, while the Patriot is 180 degrees.