Paris (AFP)

The OECD lowered slightly its forecast of world economic growth for 2020 and does not foresee a clear recovery in 2021, because of the persistent threat of trade tensions which penalize trade and investment.

As this year, global growth should remain below the 3% mark in 2020, at 2.9%, 0.1 percentage point lower than in the last September forecast, before rising slightly to 3% in 2021, estimated the institution in its forecasts of economic prospects.

"These growth rates are the lowest since the financial crisis," notes the OECD, which explains that the global economy will remain penalized by "high political uncertainty, as well as weak investment and trade".

If the institution welcomes the action of central banks to support the economy, it warns of an "imbalance" between monetary and fiscal policies, and calls for more countries to implement "incentive" tax policies to boost investment long term.

However, the OECD expresses its "greatest concern" that the pursuit of the "deterioration of the outlook" reflects "structural changes not taken into account (by the states) more than a possible cyclical shock", citing the digitization, climate change, and a new geopolitical and global trade order since the late 1990s.

"It would be a political mistake to consider these changes as temporary factors that could be addressed by monetary or fiscal policy: they are structural," insists the institution.

In detail, the slowdown is accentuating in the United States, with growth expected to reach 2.3% this year (-0.1 points compared to September forecasts), then to 2% in 2020 and 2021.

China should finally do a little better than expected this year at 6.2% (+0.1 point), before falling below the 6% mark next year (5.7%) and in 2021 ( 5.5%). The other Asian giant, India, should see its economy accelerate next year to 6.2% (-0.1 points), and again in 2021 to 6.4%.

In Europe, France continues to resist, with growth expected at 1.2% in 2020 (unchanged) and 2021, after 1.3% this year, while Germany, Europe's leading economy, will do just a little bit better than previously anticipated this year at 0.6% (+0.1 point compared to the September forecast), before slowing down in 2020 to 0.4%, 0.2 percentage point lower than in the latest forecasts, and to start again in 2021 with a growth of 0.9%.

Among the emerging countries, the situation should be even more critical in Argentina, with a recession of 3% of GDP this year (-0.3 points compared to the latest forecasts), before improving somewhat in 2020, with a decline of 1.7% (+0.1 point), and in 2021, with a contraction of GDP reduced to 0.7%.

© 2019 AFP