Turkey will not refuse to acquire Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems. This was stated by President of the Republic Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaking at a meeting of the parliamentary faction of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Ankara.
“We explained to Trump that Turkey will not back down on the S-400 issue. I told Trump how Turkey came to buy S-400 systems, and he recognized our right, ”Erdogan said, speaking about a conversation with Donald Trump during his trip to Washington in mid-November.
It is worth recalling that following the visit of the Turkish president, the head of the White House expressed confidence in the possibility of reaching a compromise with Turkey on the situation around the supply to Ankara of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems and American F-35 fighters. Then Trump announced the "many alternatives."
At the same time, a few days before the arrival of the Turkish president in the United States, adviser to the US national security leader Robert O'Brien on CBS promised on the air that if Ankara does not cancel the purchase of the Russian air defense system, then it will be “sanctioned”. As O'Brien emphasized then, the Law on Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, CAATSA can be applied against Turkey.
In addition, as Kay Bailey Hutchison, the US Permanent Representative to NATO, stated at the end of October, Americans are worried that Turkey will still acquire the S-400. She called this decision a “mistake." The Permanent Representative expressed the hope that Ankara will still not deploy and use Russian weapons.
Recall that a contract for the supply of Russian-made air defense systems to Turkey became known in September 2017. As the head of Rostec state corporation Sergey Chemezov said in an interview with the Kommersant newspaper, the transaction value amounted to $ 2.5 billion. Ankara began to receive the S-400 in July of this year.
- S-400
- © Turkish Military / Turkish Defense Ministry / Handout via REUTERS
"Did not change his position"
Speaking about Turkey’s decision to firmly follow the agreements with Moscow, experts note that a possible refusal of this contract would have an extremely negative impact on relations with Russia, and this is perfectly understood in Ankara.
“Erdogan understands the price of the issue. Obviously, if the S-400 transaction is canceled, cooperation with Russia on the Syrian settlement may be frozen. Now for Turkey, cooperation with the Russian Federation is much more important than arms contracts with the United States, ”Yulia Kudryashova, senior researcher at the Center for Euro-Atlantic Security at MGIMO, explained in an interview with RT.
The expert said that Russia favors the territorial integrity of Syria, which, in turn, is in the interests of Turkey.
“The United States, on the contrary, is interested in highlighting Kurdish autonomy in order to control Syria’s oil fields. These deposits are located in the region of compact residence of the Kurdish community. And if it gets autonomy, then this will mean a threat to Turkey’s national security. Therefore, Erdogan so values cooperation with Moscow, ”Kudryashova believes.
A similar opinion is shared by Viktor Nadein-Raevsky, Senior Researcher, IMEMO RAS.
“The Americans have tried so many times to pull Turkey in connection with the S-400 deal. But Erdogan remained adamant. He did not change his position this time either, ”the expert recalled in an interview with RT.
From his point of view, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is well aware that the Americans will not be able to do without their Turkish allies.
“There is practically no one to replace Turkey on the eastern front of NATO. There is no military force there that can be compared with the Turkish Armed Forces. Erdogan has the largest army in NATO after the American, and in the Middle East, the Turkish Armed Forces are comparable only to the Iranian ones, ”says Nadein-Raevsky.
In addition, experts draw attention to the fact that in Turkey there is an important American military base Incirlik, which is used to support the operations of the US Armed Forces in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. According to some reports, American nuclear weapons are also deployed here. This information was not directly confirmed in Washington, but it was not refuted either.
“For a long time there has been a question of transferring it to Romania. Such a perspective was indeed discussed. In principle, it is possible. However, there is simply nowhere to transfer the air base itself. There are, of course, options with Jordan and Qatar. But these countries are not members of NATO. Therefore, they will have to negotiate additionally. And the fact of transferring the base from a country that is a member of NATO to a state that is not part of the alliance does not look the best, ”says Kudryashova.
“Threats will be fulfilled”
According to political analysts, despite Trump’s assurances that “everything will turn out well,” Washington’s strong reluctance to follow American requirements is unlikely to be left unanswered.
Victor Nadein-Raevsky believes that the United States has mechanisms to influence Ankara and Washington will use them.
“I think that sanctions will be introduced. Of course, the Turks will be finally removed from the project for the production of F-35 fighter aircraft, ”says the expert.
Yulia Kudryashova, for her part, recalls that the ban on Turkey’s participation in the F-35 project has already been in force since the moment S-400 shipments began in the republic.
“Turkish pilots have already left the training center for piloting these F-35 fighter planes. They tried to remove the country from work on this project, and in fact several hundred details and components of the aircraft should be produced in Turkey, ”says Nadein-Raevsky.
In October, the Pentagon's deputy head of procurement and logistics, Ellen Lord, said Turkey was manufacturing components for the US F-35 fighter, but would complete its obligations by the end of March 2020.
- Trump and Erdogan during the negotiations in Washington
- © Joshua Roberts / Reuters
According to Nadein-Raevsky, the United States can also use its usual practice - the introduction of restrictive measures against individual persons, in this case, the Turkish military and politicians.
“I also admit that Washington will limit the IMF loans that Turkey constantly needs. All this, of course, will be unpleasant for the Turkish economy. But I do not expect more serious measures, such as those that apply to Iran. There will be no blocking of the accounts of the Turkish state. Indeed, in this case, the Americans risk losing their ally altogether, which is unacceptable to them, ”Nadein-Raevsky says.
The expert also believes that the American side can freeze the bank accounts of large Turkish officials and the assets of some Turkish banks, as well as limit their activities. This is provided for by the PACT Act (Protect Against Conflict by Turkey Act), adopted by the House of Representatives in late October, after Turkey launched Operation Source of Peace in Syria. However, the Senate has not yet considered this initiative. However, in mid-November, the head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Republican Jim Rish, warned that the upper house would continue to consider this bill if Turkey did not abandon the S-400.
“It can be expected that these threats will be fulfilled, given that the bill on sanctions has long been developed in Congress, and is expected only when it is adopted and it will be implemented,” summarizes Kudryashova.