Paris (AFP)

The deficit of the pension system should be between 7.9 billion and 17.2 billion euros in 2025, according to the report of the orientation committee ordered to justify possible savings measures before the introduction of a "universal" regime, explosive subject to the approach of the December 5th strike.

Including "between -0.3% and -0.7% of GDP", the "financial balance of the system" would be in an order of magnitude close to the forecast mentioned in June in the annual report of the COR (Orientation Council pensions), which then expected a deficit of about 10 billion euros (0.4% of GDP) in 2022, according to the document to be delivered Thursday to Matignon and was able to consult the AFP Monday.

The "slight differences" observed between June and November "can be explained" by taking into account the "under-indexation of pensions beyond 2,000 euros in 2020", "lower inflation assumptions on the horizon 2023 "and the downward revision by the government of the goal of job cuts in the public service.

Independent body composed of parliamentarians, social partners, representatives of pensioners and families, members of the administration and experts, the NRC was seized in September by the government before a new round of consultations on the future "universal pension system" to replace the 42 existing schemes.

It was then, according to the Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, assess the "financial situation" of the current system and propose measures "to ensure balance in 2025", as Emmanuel Macron, to the chagrin of the unions.

During a trip to Rodez in early October, the president had warned: "If the COR tells us + it is missing 8-10 billion +, we will have to say + we have to work a little longer +".

For its part, the COR has kept its distance from the government's goal of a return to equilibrium by 2025.

Especially since the savings leads detailed in the report are not necessarily "considered opportune by all".

Three levers can be mobilized: the level of pensions, the level of contributions and the age of departure, which is the focus of attention.

- The 1959 generation concerned? -

To return to the green, the legal age of departure, currently 62, should for example be raised from "2.5 months" to "5.4 months per generation from the 1959 generation to the generation 1963 according to convention and economic scenario ", according to COR.

Thus, it would settle between 63 and 64.3 years for the 1963 generation, the first target of the pension reform.

Another option would be to increase the contribution period required for a full-rate pension, from 5 to 10 months per generation, and accelerate the increase already planned by the previous government.

Also under study, the introduction of a "minimum age of the full rate", recalling the age of equilibrium advocated by Jean-Paul Delevoye, which would increase from the 1959 generation and would constrain the 1963 generation from between 63.1 and 64.3 years to avoid a haircut (against 64 in the report of the High Commissioner for Pensions).

By associating at this age a cancellation of the haircut envisaged for those who did not contribute long enough (currently fixed at 67 years), one would obtain the pivot age proposed by Mr. Delevoye. But this would require a further increase in the number of months worked per generation, according to the COR, which places this milestone at 64.5 years for the 1963 generation.

In any case, these tracks impact generations supposed to be spared by the reform, the president having promised that employees at five of retirement would not be concerned.

What, if they were retained, open a new front of discontent in the population. And turn the CFDT, the only central requesting a universal scheme points but fiercely opposed to the measures "financial" and "extended working time", according to its Secretary General Laurent Berger.

A position he can remind Edouard Philippe: the Prime Minister will receive the social partners next week, before an interprofessional strike on December 5 which promises to be very followed, including transportation.

© 2019 AFP