Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron in a telephone conversation on November 18 discussed the holding of the summit in the Norman format.

“The main attention is paid to the situation in Ukraine, taking into account preparations for the Norman-format summit scheduled for December 9 in Paris. Both sides emphasized that holding such a meeting should really contribute to the speedy and full implementation of the Minsk Agreements, ”the Kremlin’s website said in a statement.

Earlier, the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov confirmed the imminent negotiations in the Norman format with the participation of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany. The Champs Elysees also reported on the upcoming meeting.

“The Norman format is scheduled for December 9, it’s really so, the preparations are ongoing and have already entered the final stage,” Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

The representative of the Russian president urged not to overestimate or underestimate expectations from the meeting, however, noting that it was important and “long-awaited”. In turn, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the "conditions have ripened" for this kind of summit.

The Norman format of negotiations on Ukraine appeared in June 2014, when Vladimir Putin, Petro Poroshenko, Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel met on the sidelines of the summit dedicated to the anniversary of the Allied landings in Normandy. They discussed the settlement of the conflict in the Donbass.

The last time the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France met more than three years ago - on October 19, 2016. Then the key topic of the summit was the implementation of the Minsk agreements. However, due to the fact that President Petro Poroshenko sabotaged their implementation, this negotiation format was paused.

“There is no alternative”

The conditions for defrosting the Norman format appeared after Vladimir Zelensky came to power in Ukraine. Kiev expressed readiness for a meeting and declared its desire to resolve the situation in Donbass.

On October 1, the representative of Ukraine at the talks in Minsk, ex-president Leonid Kuchma agreed on the Steinmeier formula, which determines the mechanism for granting special status to Donbass. Ukraine also agreed to begin troop withdrawal at the settlements of Petrovskoye and Zolotoe. The German Foreign Ministry then said that the door to the meeting in the Norman format was "open."

  • Breeding of forces in the Donbass
  • RIA News
  • © Sergey Averin

However, the withdrawal of equipment and heavy weapons in both settlements was possible only by November 12. Several times the Ukrainian side disrupted the process. Participants of nationalist groups tried to intervene in it, and in Kiev nationalists and ex-president Petro Poroshenko organized protests, simultaneously accusing Vladimir Zelensky of betrayal.

The position of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs was also ambiguous. So, on November 14, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadim Pristayko announced the possibility of Kiev leaving the Minsk agreements. On November 18, Priestayko made another high-profile statement: if the Minsk agreements are not implemented, then in the Donbass some kind of “peacekeeping operation” is possible. He also said that some points of the Minsk agreements could be waived or reformulated.

In turn, Russia's envoy at the talks of the contact group in Minsk, Boris Gryzlov, called on Ukraine "to refrain from possible statements and actions that are provocative in nature," and said that Kiev should not hope for a revision of the Minsk agreements.

According to the director of the Kiev Center for Political Studies and Conflictology, Mikhail Pogrebinsky, the statements of the head of the Ukrainian foreign ministry can be aimed at preparing public opinion that Kiev will not be able to fulfill the letter of the Minsk agreements.

"This is due to the fact that a new government has come, and the" pro-Western "concept of the Ukrainian state, striving to become part of NATO and the EU, has not changed," Pogrebinsky said in an interview with RT. “And therefore, any conditions that suggest that the Donbass may be part of Ukraine, but which do not comply with the Kiev course, are unacceptable to the Ukrainian authorities.”

In turn, the director of the Progressive Policy Fund Oleg Bondarenko, in a conversation with RT, suggested that due to the unconstructive position of the Ukrainian side, there remains the possibility that the meeting in Paris can be canceled at the last moment or rescheduled.

“First, Kiev proposes to meet, and then invents some next alternatives to the Minsk agreements, which in fact have no alternative. The Ukrainian authorities just need to admit this: either forget about the Donbass, or assume that the only way to normalize the situation both in the east of the country and between Russia and Ukraine is to implement the Minsk agreements, ”Bondarenko emphasized in an interview with RT.

Meanwhile, a RT source in the Servant of the People party said that with such statements, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry is trying to "strengthen the position" of Vladimir Zelensky in anticipation of negotiations in Paris.

“Ukraine is not profitable to withdraw from the Minsk agreements, as this will complicate the process of resolving the conflict, in addition, Kiev will also be condemned by the EU and the USA. On the other hand, Zelensky does not have many opportunities for maneuver, since Merkel and Macron, who are interested in resolving the conflict, will put pressure on him, ”the source said.

The cornerstone law

On November 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at a press conference following the results of the BRICS summit in Brazil, said that if the law on the special status of Donbass (expires on December 31, 2019. - RT ) would not be extended, then discuss in Norman format will be nothing.

“On the 31st the term expires, then what? What will we discuss in the Norman format? This is a key issue, ”Putin said.

In turn, Dmitry Peskov on November 17 called the law on the special status of Donbass “crow-handed”, but noted that the Ukrainian authorities should discuss its extension with the authorities of the republics of Donbass, which is problematic due to the lack of direct contacts between the parties to the conflict.

The Ukrainian side, in turn, instead of extending the existing law on the status of Donbass, is talking about preparing a new norm, but Kiev has not yet announced any details on this.

Earlier, the presidential party “Servant of the People” stated that the new law on the status of Donbass will not contain provisions on the general amnesty of combatants in the south-east of the country and the People’s Police in the territories of certain regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions (ORDLO). In addition, in October, Leonid Kuchma’s office noted that Ukraine would begin to implement the political part of the Minsk agreements only after the dissolution of the DPR and LPR.

In turn, Dmitry Pristayko, who previously spoke about the need to abandon the general amnesty and “special status” for the Donbass, said in an interview with RBC-Ukraine on November 18 that the provisions of the law should be agreed upon, including with the Ordlo.

  • Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Vadim Priestayko
  • RIA News

In addition, Verkhovna Rada speaker Dmitry Razumkov announced the need to adopt a new law before the end of this year. However, according to him, the content of the document will depend on how the meeting ends in the Norman format.

“I hope that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs shares the position of the president, as well as the Verkhovna Rada, that this bill will be written after the Norman meeting,” Razumkov said at a November 18 briefing.

In the interests of Europe

As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted on November 18, the Russian Federation expects France and Germany to influence Ukraine so that it takes additional measures to implement the Minsk agreements.

“We hope that they will use their relationship with official Kiev so that they realize that there is no alternative to movement in the direction
full implementation of the Minsk complex of measures, ”Tass quoted Lavrov as saying.

According to Mikhail Pogrebinsky, for the time remaining before the negotiations, Paris and Berlin can indeed make Ukraine’s position “more constructive”.

“Now, apparently, Macron and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Germany will negotiate with Kiev so that it begins to fulfill its obligations under the Minsk agreements in the political part,” the expert believes.

In turn, Oleg Bondarenko recalled that Brussels links the implementation of the Minsk agreements with the issue of sanctions against Russia.

“Everyone wants to reach peace as soon as possible. And for Europe it is a matter of extending or lifting anti-Russian sanctions, which, as everyone understands, do not work properly. So, you need to somehow get out of this story beautifully. And this is possible only if the parties acknowledge that everyone made concessions, fulfilled the agreements, and the Minsk agreements are gradually being implemented, ”says Bondarenko.

"Red lines"

RT sources in Ukrainian political circles note that the meeting in the Norman format carries great political risks for Zelensky: the president plans to put forward tough demands, but is practically not ready for compromises.

“One of the main requirements of the president is to liquidate the self-proclaimed republics of the DPR and LPR, and problems can already begin at this stage,” the RT source in the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry predicts.

In turn, the interlocutor of RT in the party “Voice” believes that Zelensky is not at all ready for negotiations in the Norman format.

  • Vladimir Zelensky
  • Reuters
  • © Ints Kalnins

“He will most likely be required to conduct direct negotiations with the leaders of the self-proclaimed republics. And this is a “red line” for the Ukrainian delegation, which is forbidden to cross, ”the deputy says.

An RT source in the Fatherland party believes that a meeting in the Norman format could create internal political problems for the Ukrainian leader.

“Imagine Zelensky will shake hands with Vladimir Putin. This will immediately provoke hysteria in Ukrainian society. I'm not talking about if the president has to make concessions. The process of translating all the promises into practice can be much more complicated than its administration expects, ”says the source.

According to Oleg Bondarenko, although a meeting in the Norman format may be an important step for the peace process in the Donbass, it is unlikely to dramatically affect the situation.

“In one meeting, hardly anything can be changed. I would not overestimate her. There will be no strategic decisions on it, ”said Bondarenko.

Mikhail Pogrebinsky expects that the main outcome of the negotiations in the Norman format is likely to be only that the parties "clearly outline their positions." He admits that the parties will agree on the withdrawal of troops of Ukraine and the republics of Donbass along the entire line of contact. Earlier, Vladimir Putin spoke about this prospect.

“For example, the Ukrainian side in the person of Zelensky will make it clear that today she is not ready to vote for a special status, for an amnesty, but she’s ready to move in this direction, to prepare a parliament, public opinion. In the meantime, it will be possible to agree on the withdrawal of troops along the entire line of contact. It seems to me that this will also be a certain result, ”Pogrebinsky predicts.