The United States and South Korea decided to postpone for an indefinite period the joint maneuvers of the air forces of the two countries, scheduled for November this year. The corresponding statement was made at a press conference in Bangkok following the meeting of Pentagon President Mark Esper and South Korean Defense Minister Chung Kyung-do. It was noted that the transfer of maneuvers should facilitate dialogue with Pyongyang.
“We made this decision as a gesture of goodwill aimed at creating an atmosphere conducive to diplomatic efforts and an approach to a peaceful settlement. We call on the DPRK to display a similar manifestation of goodwill, ”said Esper.
Thus, the head of the Pentagon confirmed messages previously appeared in the American media with reference to sources in the US defense department that the exercises would be postponed.
Air Force Vigilant Ace (Vigilant Pilot) maneuvers are annual. They are working on the interaction of the armed forces of the two countries in the event of a military conflict with North Korea. In 2017, these exercises became the largest of all held jointly by Seoul and Washington - about 12 thousand troops of the two countries took part in them.
The very fact of postponing military exercises is not unprecedented. Last year, Vigilant Ace were also canceled. This happened then against the backdrop of ongoing negotiations between the DPRK and the United States on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. However, to date, the two countries' contacts on this issue have actually been curtailed after the failed summit in Sweden in October this year.
Moreover, recently, the DPRK has actually announced the abandonment of dialogue with the United States. The reason was the resolution, which was adopted on November 14 by the Third Committee of the UN General Assembly on social and humanitarian issues. It calls for the DPRK to be held accountable for gross violations of human rights. Such a resolution has been adopted by the committee for the 15th year in a row.
A report by the DPRK Foreign Ministry, circulated by the Central Telegraph Agency of Korea (CTAC), states that the resolution was adopted under US pressure. The document itself is called "political provocation." Continue negotiations with Washington "we have no desire," the North Korean Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
In early October, negotiations between the United States and the DPRK broke in Sweden. The North Korean side said that the Americans did not formulate any proposals interesting to the DPRK.
“We have clearly set the American side a way to resolve issues, so the further fate of the Korean-American dialogue depends on the position of the United States, and the deadline is until the end of this year,” the North Korean Foreign Ministry said in a statement after the cancellation of the negotiations.
Thus, the Foreign Ministry emphasized that they did not intend to continue negotiations until the United States took "practical measures to completely and irreversibly abandon the hostile policy regarding the DPRK."
Meanwhile, on November 14, Special Envoy of the North Korean Foreign Ministry Kim Myung-Gil announced that the United States Special Representative for North Korea, Stephen Bigan, “conveyed a desire through a third country” for the two countries to negotiate. Indirectly, Donald Trump confirmed this on his Twitter. He said North Korean leader Kim Jong-un needs to act quickly and make a deal with the United States.
“See you soon,” Trump wrote.
Mr. Chairman, Joe Biden may be Sleepy and Very Slow, but he is not a “rabid dog.” He is actually somewhat better than that, but I am the only one who can get you where you have to be. You should act quickly, get the deal done. See you soon! https://t.co/kO2k14lTf7
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 17, 2019Willingness to talk
The decision to postpone the exercises may be due to unprecedentedly harsh North Korean statements, experts say.
“The North Korean position is that the DPRK is waiting for negotiations before the end of the year. During this time, Americans must convincingly demonstrate that they are ready for dialogue. This is the condition of the DPRK authorities, ”said Korean historian Konstantin Asmolov in an interview with RT.
- Mark Esper and his South Korean counterpart Jung Kyung Doo at a joint press conference
- © Jung Yeon-je / Pool via REUTERS
The expert emphasizes that postponing the date of the exercises may be one of a series of concessions that the Americans will propose to the DPRK in order to resume dialogue. And perhaps this is the only concession.
“Then, it turns out, the Americans did it out of hopelessness. In order to offer at least something, so that they don’t say that the Americans didn’t offer anything and took an unconstructive position, ”Asmolov said.
Yevgeny Kim, a senior fellow at the Center for Korean Studies at the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the North Korean authorities, of course, will approve the postponement of exercises. But keep in mind that the DPRK expects more ambitious concessions from the United States.
In April 2018, the DPRK abandoned nuclear tests, recalls Kim.
“So far, the North Koreans keep their promise not to conduct nuclear tests. From the point of view of the DPRK authorities, the United States has something to answer. If you do not remove, then at least ease the sanctions. However, there is no answer. North Koreans believe that the Americans promised a lot, but did nothing, ”Kim said.
He believes that in order to soften the position of the DPRK, the United States could establish humanitarian supplies from South to North Korea.
“For example, put the swine fever vaccine. This is important for North Korea, ”says Kim.
Motives of the Americans
According to analysts, most likely, the initiative to postpone Vigilant Ace comes from US President Donald Trump.
“The idea to abandon, even temporarily, large-scale exercises fully corresponds to the foreign policy views of the American leader. Trump believes that the United States is spending too much on maintaining South Korea’s security. It is no coincidence, after all, that he so persistently offers the South Koreans to pay more for the fact that the US military is on their territory, ”says Asmolov.
- Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un in joint negotiations
- © KCNA via REUTERS
At the same time, the expert believes that the White House would not mind making any concessions to the DPRK on the country's missile and nuclear programs: this would welcome American public opinion. Trump, who is scheduled for the presidential election in 2020, will not interfere, the political scientist noted.
An important circumstance is also the change in the National Security Advisor to the US President: John Bolton, who took a tough stance against North Korea, left his post in September.
“The problem is that the DPRK is ready to cooperate only on the principle of“ concession for concession ”. And Trump’s ability to promise something is limited. He barely fought off accusations that he had won the 2016 election thanks to a conspiracy with Russia. Now he absolutely does not want to be accused of concessions to North Korea. Therefore, he is careful. Trump has to take into account public opinion and the actions of opponents within the country, ”Asmolov believes.
A positive factor potentially contributing to the US-DPRK negotiations is the position of South Korea, experts say. Official Seoul is not configured to confront. Moreover, recently, the country's authorities took an unprecedented step: they gave the North Korean authorities two North Korean fishermen who fled to the South. True, the situation was special. Two fishermen fled to South Korea after killing 16 people - crew members of their fishing schooner. The South Korean union ministry said the killers could not be recognized as refugees.
“In any case, the Americans will have to negotiate with the DPRK. Otherwise, starting from the new year, North Korea will most likely refuse the obligations that the leader of their country assumed in 2018, ”Kim concludes.