Paris (AFP)

Little overall effect on the economy, but a "massive" impact for certain sectors: one year after the start of the mobilization of "yellow vests", the economic and budgetary balance of the movement appears mixed.

- Growth -

"At the macroeconomic level (the movement) has not had any significant effect," says AFP Julien Pouget, head of the department of conjuncture of the National Institute of Statistics. In total, the institute has estimated the impact of protests and blockages at 0.1 point of GDP in the last quarter of 2018. The effect is negligible for 2019.

On the other hand, "if we look at the shops in certain streets, in certain cities, and some companies, it is clear that locally the effect could be massive", shade Mr. Pouget.

- Shops -

Retail trade in the downtown areas where the protests took place suffered particularly, with a drop in attendance leading to a turnover loss of 20 to 30 percent, according to a parliamentary report released in July.

At Christmas, the Federation of Retail Trade (FCD) had estimated the shortfall to two billion euros.

Shopping centers located on the outskirts of cities have reported a loss of activity of around 2 billion euros due to blockages. But the major distributors managed to limit the damage at the end of 2018 thanks to a favorable timetable and, for some, catching up on the food sector. Since the beginning of the year, the consequences of the demonstrations on their activity have tended to fade.

- Tourism -

In November 2018, the hotel attendance was sustained, according to INSEE, despite the lesser occupation during the days of November 17 to November 24, corresponding to acts I and II of the movement of "yellow vests". On the other hand, in December, hotel attendance fell by 1.1% in the whole of France, and by 5.3% in Paris.

This trend, which did not prevent a record year in France in 2018, continued during the first quarter of 2019, with a drop of 2.5%. The decline is much more marked (-4.8%) among foreign visitors but the second quarter has improved, with a rise of 3.8% of this international clientele.

All in all, "in the first half of the year, the occupancy rate of the French hotel industry was almost stable, up + 0.2%, but it was above all high-end hotels, luxury hotels, which suffered, There have been many cancellations, from 30% to 50% of bookings end 2018, "summarizes Roland Héguy, president of the Union of trades and industries of the hotel industry (Umih).

- Insurance -

Insurers compensated 217 million euros in damages between the beginning of the movement and the end of May 2019. Virtually all of this sum was paid to companies to compensate for the damage and loss of exploitation suffered.

- Bankruptcies -

According to research firm Altares, the month of December 2018 recorded a number of business failures unpublished since 2015, and they grew by 11% in January 2019. But this upward movement began in mid-2018 " almost six months before the start of the yellow vests movement, "noted the firm in its balance sheet of the second quarter. Then, in the first two quarters of 2019, the failures have dropped.

"The aid system put in place by the public authorities from the end of November 2018 seems to have allowed + small + entrepreneurs to hold", according to Thierry Millon, director of studies at Altares. Affected traders were able to apply for tax exemptions and maturity spreads.

In terms of employment, the parliamentary mission had recorded on June 17, 5,283 applications for partial unemployment related to the movement, concerning 75,277 employees.

- Public finances -

In addition to aid to companies, the state had to mobilize more of its agents, including police and gendarmes, for a cost assessed by the parliamentary mission to 46 million euros, related to the payment of overtime.

Added to this is the rehabilitation of nearly 3,000 radars destroyed or damaged during the movement, which could cost 71 million euros according to the same report. Road Safety estimated in August to 300 million euros the shortfall in contraventions since the beginning of the movement.

In addition, the emergency measures taken by the government, estimated at about 10 billion euros, boosted the purchasing power of households, with an increase of 2.3% expected this year, according to INSEE, the never seen since 2007, even if it has not yet translated into their consumption. Actions that will weigh on the public deficit this year.

© 2019 AFP