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The hopes of Albert Rivera to turn around the polls passed, in large part, by the undecided. Since Citizens stormed the national scene, in December 2015, their voters had been characterized as being the most volatile and hesitant when choosing ballot. In April, Ciudadanos faced the electoral campaign with only 41% of its former voters of 2016 determined to repeat the vote. The final proportion rose almost 25 points (up to 66%), with half of those who finally voted orange on 28-A making the decision in the last two weeks, according to the CIS pre-election and post-election surveys.

This time the story was not repeated. Cs reached 10-N with a fidelity that did not reach 40%. Far from the previous comebacks, the stampede was confirmed on election night: Rivera barely withheld 32% of those who supported him 28-A, 1.3 million votes from the more than 4.1 million collected months earlier, the same amount that would have gone to the Popular Party or Vox. The data comes from the demographic study of Sigma Dos for EL MUNDO , based on the results of the generals of last Sunday and the thousands of interviews conducted by the polling company for the electoral tracking of this newspaper.

In an election in which the balance between the two ideological blocs remained intact (the two moved around 43% of the votes), the ups and downs within each of them already pointed out that the main flows would have occurred between formations with a certain affinity in the left-right axis, when not towards abstention. Thus, while around 24% of the voters (almost 990,000 ballots) of Cs in April changed acronyms for those of the PP, another 9.5% (about 387,000) turned from oranges to Vox. And they were not the only leaks.

The transfers between Cs and the PSOE, which until then had acted as a porous border between blocks, now only flowed in one direction. The Albert Rivera debacle, already out of politics after the loss of 47 seats, was forged mostly by the fourth part of his 28-A electorate who this time decided to stay at home (another million voters ). And it was increased by the output of 5% of votes (203,000 votes) to the PSOE. On the side of the entries, 226,000 former abstentionists and 1.5% of those who opted for Pablo Casado in April (just over 65,000 supports). Nothing else.

They were not the only movements on the right side of the parliamentary arch. While the PP retained 80% of what was already harvested, it also attracted 5% of what Vox had (134,000 votes). In turn, one of every 10 voters of Casado on 28-A would have traveled the reverse path, which translated into ballots leaves a positive balance of 281,000 for those of Santiago Abascal, always according to Sigma Dos estimates.

In addition, Vox was the one who best fidelized what was already achieved (85% repeated vote), which together with the favorable balance of 233,000 citizens taken from abstention complete the bulk of the rise that has served them to establish themselves as the third national party. In total, almost one million new supports in a call with two million fewer voters compared to April.

However, the Sigma Dos study does not detect entries from United We can (UP), while calculating in a meager 0.5% (36,000 votes) the proportion of exelectors of Pedro Sánchez captured by Vox, data that contrasts with the wielded by Abascal himself in his electoral balance, the day after the elections, when he put his booty of former socialists at 300,000.

In the center-left block, the PSOE found in the abstention its biggest rival, with about 950,000 demobilized from 28-A (almost 13%). The acting President of the Government also had a high retention capacity (79% of the followers achieved in April).

Attenuated the effect of the More Country project, the balance of the Socialists with United We, their other potential threat, was positive: 167,000 votes resulting from 2.5% of departures to the purple against almost 10% of those who left Pablo Iglesias or its Catalan confluence to trust this time in the PSOE. Finally, the data of those who repeated with Iglesias was 70%, while another 10% abstained.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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