Paris (AFP)

Energy saving, oil decline, development of renewable electricity: the global energy system must undertake "swift" and massive transformations to limit climate change, warns the International Energy Agency ( OUCH).

"The world urgently needs to focus its attention, with the precision of a laser, on the reduction of global emissions," said Fatih Birol, the executive director of the agency based in Paris, presenting its annual report unveiled Wednesday.

"This requires a grand coalition of governments, investors, businesses and all those committed to tackling climate change," he said.

Last year, energy demand increased significantly, as did CO2 emissions, and this trend is likely to continue.

As is the case each year, the IEA publishes several scenarios: one extrapolates on the existing energy policies today, the other takes into account the changes induced by the political objectives posted for the future - but which remain insufficient.

Only a third scenario shows what should be done to limit emissions in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, to contain the warming well below 2 degrees, and rather to 1.5 degrees, compared to preindustrial.

The latter - the sustainable development scenario - "requires rapid and widespread changes across the entire energy system," warns the IEA. And "there is no single or simple solution to transforming global energy systems," says Birol.

First, it assumes that energy demand is lower in 2040 than it is today, despite the growth of the global economy, through energy efficiency efforts.

But this one is not progressing fast enough, already warned the IEA in a report published at the beginning of November. It has, for ten years, never progressed as slowly as in 2018: with an increase of 1.2%, it is well below the necessary 3%.

- Coal problem -

Achieving climate goals also requires that the use of oil and coal peak immediately before decaying, while gas has yet to increase slightly before it begins to decline. It would take an oil market that drops to 65 million barrels a day in 2040 (against 97 million last year), a level that corresponds to that of the early 1990s.

On the other hand, electricity has to grow and take first place in final energy consumption, to the detriment of oil, by 2040. The new electric capacity must be driven almost exclusively by renewable - wind and solar.

"Putting electrical systems on a sustainable path will require more than simply adding renewables," warns the IEA.

It highlights this year the need to also attack emissions related to the existing system, targeting in particular coal, highly polluting. Coal-fired power plants are very numerous and relatively recent in Asia, so they are likely to continue to emit for a long time given their long life span.

The report released Wednesday focuses on this problem and identifies several solutions. The first is to equip them with carbon capture and sequestration capacities - at the exorbitant price of one billion euros per gigawatt (GW) of capacity on the basis of current technology - or equipment allowing them to also use biomass.

The second is to make coal-fired plants means of supplementary production to ensure the flexibility of the electrical system while reducing their operation. The last, more radical, is to close them earlier than expected.

In the sustainable scenario, most of the 2.080 GW of existing coal capacity would have to comply with one of these three solutions, warns the IEA.

© 2019 AFP