Ukrainian Minister of Defense Andrei Zagorodniuk said that the Ukrainian army intends to abandon military service. This was announced by the head of the department on the air of the Army FM radio station. According to him, the draft model in Ukraine has no future and next year the department will present a roadmap for refusing military service.
“Honestly, I believe that this model has no future for us. And this is not only my vision ... Next year we will show a specific roadmap, it will be parallel - the development of territorial defense and reduction, and then, I hope, the complete abolition of military service, ”the minister emphasized.
As Zagorodniuk added, the military service does not provide for the formation of an army reserve, since most of the recruited conscripts do not return later to the Armed Forces.
In addition to the transition to contract service, the Ministry of Defense plans to focus on the development of territorial defense.
“Former military personnel, veterans, people who just like the military theme, but they don’t want to sign a contract and do not see themselves all the time in the army or naval forces, should have strong territorial defense,” the minister said.
- Minister of Defense of Ukraine Andrii Zagorodniuk (right)
- RIA News
At the same time, Zagorodniuk did not forget to praise the current leadership of the country, noting the “favorable climate” for army reform.
“The Committee on Security and Defense, which is now in the Verkhovna Rada, and the one that was before it, is heaven and earth,” he emphasized.
Recall, this is not the first statement on the possible abolition of draft in the army made by the head of the defense department of Ukraine. A few days ago, on the air of TSN.Tizhden, the minister said that the country was moving towards a transition to a contractual basis.
“This is my personal goal. It will not be soon, it will not be during the year, but it is my personal goal to cancel the appeal, ”said Zagorodniuk.
“Voluntary and motivated army”
Thus, the leadership of Ukraine plans to return to the policies pursued by the administration of Viktor Yanukovych. Yanukovych promised to cancel the urgent call during his election campaign in 2011. In October 2013, he signed a decree on the last call for military service and the transition of the Armed Forces to a contractual basis.
As the then press service of the president said, modern weapons require a high level of training of military personnel, so the army should be professional, not draft.
- Draftees in the Ukrainian army and a military brass band at one of the recruiting stations in Kiev
- RIA News
- © Evgeny Kotenko
The return of the draft to the army was one of the first decisions of politicians who came to power in Ukraine after the “Euromaidan”. Already in the spring of 2014, Alexander Turchinov, who held the post at that time and. about. President, signed a decree on the resumption of military service.
Petro Poroshenko did not cancel the call - the politician said that urgent military service in the army should be preserved. The only innovation was the increase in the draft age from 18 to 20 years. In addition, the authorities promised that they would not be sent to the combat area in the Donbass.
However, the military registration and enlistment offices were faced with a serious problem - the mass evasion of young Ukrainians from conscription. So, in October 2018, the military commissar of the Kiev garrison Sergei Klyavin told reporters that most of the conscripts ignored the summons. The share of draft dodgers from the total number of draftees reached 80%, the commissioner said.
The situation is no better in other regions of Ukraine. As stated in April 2018, the military commissar of the Kherson city united military commissariat Alexander Zinkovsky, more than half of the recruits simply did not appear in the military enlistment office.
The need to transfer the APU to a contractual basis was announced in the team of the current president, Vladimir Zelensky.
“Opposing the enemy, which is superior in numbers and numbers, will be a professional, voluntary and motivated army that is compatible with the armies of NATO countries,” the document said.
At the same time, Zelensky’s team promised to maintain the material welfare of the contractors “at the level of NATO member countries,” and upon admission to educational institutions, military personnel will receive certain benefits and free medical insurance. In addition, they will be provided with official housing through funded and mortgage programs, Zelensky’s associates promised.
On November 13, the head of the “Servant of the People” faction, David Arahamia, told reporters that the deputies had already begun to draft a bill to abolish the compulsory appeal to the Armed Forces. It is assumed that the transition will be carried out in stages.
“It will be possible to realize this: first, reduce the draft by 20% and replace it with a contract army. Then see that everything is fine with us, that we are in control of the process, then reduce it by another 20%. That is, you can reach 100% in such a step-by-step way, ”said Arahamia.
True, while in the Rada and the Ministry of Defense they are talking about the prospects of canceling the draft, in the acquisition department of the Office of the Staff Headquarters of the Ground Forces Command they are thinking about measures to increase responsibility for evading military duties. The head of the department, Lt. Col. Nikolai Kachanenko, told reporters in late October that the department had submitted to the Ministry of Defense a proposal to increase responsibility for failure to appear in the military enlistment office. Now the penalty for this is only 255 hryvnias, in the most extreme cases, the court can sentence the draft deviator to a suspended sentence, but, apparently, such a punishment does not frighten young people, Kachanenko noted.
Ordinary populism
Experts doubt that Kiev will be able to get out of military service in the foreseeable future. The main obstacle to refusal is the lack of funds and resources. The Ukrainian Cabinet expects to increase its allocations for defense and security, having allocated 33.8 billion hryvnias ($ 1.3 billion) more than this year for the needs of the security forces. This is stated in the message of the Ukrainian government. It is estimated that defense spending will reach UAH 245.8 billion (about $ 10 billion) next year. This is almost a quarter of all budget expenditures in Ukraine, which next year should be about 1195.3 trillion hryvnias (about $ 49 billion ) with a deficit of 2.09%.
With such a high level of defense spending in the state budget structure, it will be extremely difficult to increase spending on the army further. Especially when you consider the obligations of Kiev on foreign debt: payments on public debt in the coming year may reach 423.6 billion hryvnia (about $ 17 billion), which will make up almost a third of the income of the Ukrainian treasury.
- President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky
- globallookpress.com
- © Sergii Kharchenko
According to the doctor of military sciences, retired captain 1st rank Konstantin Sivkov, the only way to find funds for the salaries of contract soldiers for Kiev could be to reduce the number of aircraft.
“The draft in the Ukrainian regular army is not popular. The problem is that the Ukrainian armed forces are not engaged in the struggle against an external enemy, but in a war against their own people. The issue of financing can be resolved by reducing the number of APUs - a large army is not needed to suppress its own population, ”the expert explained in a comment to RT.
At the same time, territorial defense structures mentioned by the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense can be created to protect especially important facilities on Ukrainian territory from enemy sabotage groups, which will be equipped with reservists.
“It will be, in fact, a camouflaged mobilization,” Konstantin Sivkov explained.
Experts believe that, although Kiev has long been calling the introduction of NATO standards for the Armed Forces of Ukraine one of the key tasks, the refusal to appeal will not help Ukraine move closer to membership in the alliance.
As the head of the Ukrainian Center for Political and Economic Analysis, Oleksandr Kava, said in an interview with RT, the absence or presence of a call will not affect the decision on Ukraine’s joining NATO - the alliance did not make such demands.
According to the head of the Department of Political Science and Sociology of the Russian University of Economics named after G.V. Plekhanov Colonel, retired Andrei Koshkin, a complete rejection of the call devoid of practical meaning.
“World practice shows that the contract army is not quite productive, the most optimal option is a mixed army. So the idea of Zelensky contradicts even the basic world practices, not to mention the Ukrainian specifics. These are very ambitious statements, which are hardly backed up by serious calculations. In the 1990s, Russia also tried to switch to a contract army, but such initiatives are usually put forward not out of great intelligence, but out of a desire to please the electorate, ”the expert explained.
According to Koshkin, the motive of Zelensky’s team is very simple: the new authorities want the population to like it and for this they are talking about a possible refusal to appeal.
“It should be noted that here one more conclusion suggests itself: the population is completely unwilling to fight and tired of the war. There is no enthusiasm and desire to win back Donbass from Ukrainians, ”the expert added.
A similar point of view is shared by Alexander Kava.
“Today, there are less and less people wishing to join the army, especially in light of the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The discussion on the transition to a professional army has been going on for a long time in the country, but it is unlikely that in the foreseeable future Kiev will have the means to pay salaries to contract soldiers, ”the expert noted.
At the same time, the political scientist recalled, recent ratings have shown that the level of trust in Vladimir Zelensky and his team among the population is decreasing and this process can accelerate in the winter.
“Most likely, the authorities are trying to win the favor of voters with a promise to start army reform, especially among young people whose military service is not popular,” summed up Alexander Kava.